Author: Nick Parson
Published: 2025-03-08

David Stern is widely credited with saving the NBA in the 1980s. Recreational drug use was common back then. the league was so disparaged by the fan base that The Finals were actually broadcast on tape delay.

The commish was then gifted with the arrival of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and (later) Michael Jordan, and took advantage by marketing stars over teams. The public bought in, and a few generations later the league is still thriving.

Adam Silver, Falk’s replacement, has been just as lucky. Silver must be pinching himself after the Midwest Mavericks decided that they were not going to babysit an out-of-shape Luka Doncic and sent him to the Lakers only eight months after Doncic had led them to the Finals.

So while the Mavs look at a grim future with a broken down Anthony Davis and aging Kyrie Irving out for all of next season with an ACL tear, the Lakers ride into Boston Saturday night as the hottest team in the Western Conference and with a legit shot at making it to The Finals again.

And while Silver would never admit it in public, he has to be smiling ear to ear at the prospect of the Lakers and Celtics going at it for the upteenth time in The Finals.  The story lines will write themselves. Cleveland and Oklahoma City will get their due as the top conference seeds, but just about every fan outside of Ohio and Oklahoma wants Boston vs. LA.

Before Doncic dropped in their laps, the Lakers were just another Good But Not Great team in the belly of a powerful Western Conference. LeBron James was always going to get them to the playoffs somehow, but it looked like they might have to fight their way out of the Play-In, again. Would Davis be healthy for a two-month playoff run? Would LeBron have any legs left? And they might still have to get past the Nuggets, their own white whale.

The Doncic deal has flipped that script. The Doncic/LeBron Lakers went into Denver a few weeks ago and spanked the Nuggets by 23, with LA somehow harassing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic into one of his worst games of the year. Doncic dropped 32 points in 31 minutes, erasing all doubt that having two ball-dominant players on the court at the same time would not be an issue.

The next test comes Sunday night in Boston, where the Celtics have lost 11 times this season. The Green  might have been freaked by Cleveland’s hot start, and basically have load-managed their way through the season. Thursday night Boston sat four rotation players against the woeful Sixers, and still cruised. It will be interested to see if all hands will be on board against the Lakers on Saturday.

The Lakers and Celtics met in Los Angeles a month and a half ago. Davis and James outplayed Tatum and Brown. Everyone else was there to comply with rules that require five players on the court at all times, and the Lakers cruised over a tired Boston team that had gone overtime against the Clippers the night before. That Laker win will be long forgotten if the teams navigate through the playoffs and meet up in the Finals for the 13th time.

Like the Lakers, the Celtics have won 8 of their last games heading into Saturday. Boston has been installed as an early 6.5-point favorite. Boston is still a slight favorite to make it back-to-back titles, at +190 after opening at +300. The Lakers, now in second in the West, have made a huge leap and are now +900 after opening the season at +4000.

Russell vs. West, Baylor, and Chamberlain.

Magic and Kareem vs. Bird.

Kobe vs. Garnett and Pierce.

LeBron and Doncic vs. Tatum and Brown?

Why not?

Author: Nick Parsons
Published: 2025-03-07

David Stern is widely credited with saving the NBA in the 1980s. Recreational drug use was common back then. the league was so disparaged by the fan base that The Finals were actually broadcast on tape delay.

The commish was then gifted with the arrival of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and (later) Michael Jordan, and took advantage by marketing stars over teams. The public bought in, and a few generations later the league is still thriving.

Adam Silver, Falk’s replacement, has been just as lucky. Silver must be pinching himself after the Midwest Mavericks decided that they were not going to babysit an out-of-shape Luka Doncic and sent him to the Lakers only eight months after Doncic had led them to the Finals.

So while the Mavs look at a grim future with a broken down Anthony Davis and aging Kyrie Irving out for all of next season with an ACL tear, the Lakers ride into Boston Saturday night as the hottest team in the Western Conference and with a legit shot at making it to The Finals again.

And while Silver would never admit it in public, he has to be smiling ear to ear at the prospect of the Lakers and Celtics going at it for the upteenth time in The Finals.  The story lines will write themselves. Cleveland and Oklahoma City will get their due as the top conference seeds, but just about every fan outside of Ohio and Oklahoma wants Boston vs. LA.

Before Doncic dropped in their laps, the Lakers were just another Good But Not Great team in the belly of a powerful Western Conference. LeBron James was always going to get them to the playoffs somehow, but it looked like they might have to fight their way out of the Play-In, again. Would Davis be healthy for a two-month playoff run? Would LeBron have any legs left? And they might still have to get past the Nuggets, their own white whale.

The Doncic deal has flipped that script. The Doncic/LeBron Lakers went into Denver a few weeks ago and spanked the Nuggets by 23, with LA somehow harassing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic into one of his worst games of the year. Doncic dropped 32 points in 31 minutes, erasing all doubt that having two ball-dominant players on the court at the same time would not be an issue.

The next test comes Sunday night in Boston, where the Celtics have lost 11 times this season. The Green  might have been freaked by Cleveland’s hot start, and basically have load-managed their way through the season. Thursday night Boston sat four rotation players against the woeful Sixers, and still cruised. It will be interested to see if all hands will be on board against the Lakers on Saturday.

The Lakers and Celtics met in Los Angeles a month and a half ago. Davis and James outplayed Tatum and Brown. Everyone else was there to comply with rules that require five players on the court at all times, and the Lakers cruised over a tired Boston team that had gone overtime against the Clippers the night before. That Laker win will be long forgotten if the teams navigate through the playoffs and meet up in the Finals for the 13th time.

Like the Lakers, the Celtics have won 8 of their last games heading into Saturday. Boston has been installed as an early 6.5-point favorite. Boston is still a slight favorite to make it back-to-back titles, at +190 after opening at +300. The Lakers, now in second in the West, have made a huge leap and are now +900 after opening the season at +4000.

Russell vs. West, Baylor, and Chamberlain.
Magic and Kareem vs. Bird.
Kobe vs. Garnett and Pierce.
LeBron and Doncic vs. Tatum and Brown?
Why not?
 

Author: Jeff's Hochman
Published: 2025-02-20

Grade 2 Rebel Stakes | Oaklawn Park | Race 11 | Feb. 23


Top Win Contenders


#3 Sandman (4/1), trained by Mark Casse & ridden by Cristian Torres


Tapit sires this 3-year-old colt and has an impressive record of 6 races with two wins, 1-second place, and one-third place, earning a total of $344,595. Last month, he finished a close second by just one length to the winner, Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Sandman achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 101 and has improved his figures over the last four races. He won in an Allowance race as the 5/2 favorite two races back, racing 1 mile at Oaklawn. This upcoming race will be his second start during his 3-year-old campaign, following five races as a 2-year-old. He appears ready, featuring a series of impressive workouts over this course. Don't expect odds of 4/1; they are likely closer to 2/1, so I will look for alternatives.


#5 Madaket Road (9/2), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.


This lightly raced 3-year-old colt by Quality Road has three career starts, with one win, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish, earning $80,000. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita on opening day this past December as the 4/5 favorite. However, in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on February 1st, he finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Citizen Bull. Although he appears to be a win contender, especially considering the strength of his connections, this will be his second race in just 22 days. Although I have some doubts, I wouldn’t be surprised if he performs well. Since 2010, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has achieved an impressive record in the Rebel: eight wins, four second-place finishes, and one-third from 16 starters. This results in a 50% win rate and an 81% in-the-money rate.


#10 Bullard (5/1), trained by Michael McCarthy & ridden by Umberto Rispoli


This 3-year-old colt by Gun Runner has achieved two wins and one third-place finish in three starts, earning $129,000. Bullard secured his victory in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes two races ago, earning a career-best Equibase speed figure of 105 at Del Mar last November. In his only race this year, Bullard finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Barnes, and the second-place finisher, Madaket Road, in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. The 5/1 morning line shows considerable respect from the track handicapper for a horse that has never raced at Oaklawn or competed in distances longer than 7 furlongs. However, Bullard is a respected purchase at $675,000 from the Keeneland September 2023 yearling sale. Trainer McCarthy and jockey Rispoli have a winning rate of 28%, finishing in the money 59% of the time when they team up.


#11 Speed King (6/1), trained by Ron Moquett & ridden by Rafael Bejarano


Speed King has demonstrated significant potential, securing two victories and one-second place from three races, accumulating $669,000, the second-highest earnings in the field. He won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park at odds of 14/1 on January 25th. Two starts back, he broke his maiden at odds of nearly 23/1 at Churchill Downs. Speed King's speed figures have steadily improved, increasing from 93 to 103 in his first three races. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and also 1-for-1 at this distance. He will likely attract significant betting interest by post-time, and I don't expect his odds to be any higher than 9/2. His most recent workout is very impressive, where he completed 4 furlongs in 48 seconds, ranking fourth-best out of 117 horses.


Live Long Shots


#1 Coal Battle (10/1), trained by Lonnie Briley & ridden by Juan Vargas


This three-year-old colt by Coal Front has achieved four victories in six career starts, earning $453,875. He has won three consecutive races, all listed stakes events, by a combined margin of seven lengths. Notably, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes, completing the distance of 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn on January 4th. Coal Battle needs to improve his speed figures, as his career best of 96 from two starts ago will not be sufficient to win this race. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and 1-for-1 at this distance and beat Speed King in the Remington Springboard Mile last December. If Speed King is a good bet at 6/1, consider Coal Battle at 10/1. This horse boasts an impressive record, having never lost a race on dirt. Both of his losses occurred on turf. While his training performances might not be particularly impressive, it's important to remember that some horses do not enjoy morning workouts.


#2 Admiral Dennis (12/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux


Admiral Dennis has two wins and one third-place finish in four career starts, earning $119,800. He won an allowance race at Fairgrounds on January 20th, going 1 1/16 miles, as the odds-on favorite. He has been the favorite at post-time in all four races. Two starts back, he stumbled at the start but made up good ground to finish fourth, 16 ½ lengths behind the winner, Built in the Gun Runner Stakes (listed). You must respect trainer Brad Cox, who wins 28% of the time and finishes in the money 62% of the time in all stakes races. He wins 30% and finishes in the money 62% in all dirt races at today's distance.


#9 Smokin Wicked (8/1), trained by Dallas Stewart & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione


This 3-year-old colt, by Bobby’s Wicked One, was purchased for just $38,000—what a bargain! In 2024, he earned $307,542 with four wins, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish. This race will mark his first start in 2025, which may be a disadvantage when predicting the winner. Ten of the last 12 winners prepped with a race in January or February. Horses making their first start of the year in the Rebel have won only 2 out of 14 times during the same period. However, Smokin Wicked has won three consecutive races, including the Louisiana Futurity Stakes (listed) last December, where he achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 112, the highest in the field. His recent workout performances have been impressive, and he boasts the fastest late-pace speed figure of 112 among the contenders. The only concern is whether he can handle this distance.


#13 Tiztastic (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Jose Ortiz


This 3-year-old colt, by Tiz the Law, has earned a check in five consecutive races after finishing fifth in his first career start last July at Saratoga. He encountered some traffic issues but finished third, 2 ½ lengths behind Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes last month. With career earnings of $909,800, he holds the highest total in the field. Tiztastic has won two races, both on turf, raising concerns about his ability on other surfaces. He was purchased for $335,000 at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale for an ownership group that has enjoyed considerable success. You must respect the connections; trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Irad Ortiz have a combined winning percentage of 35% and finish in the money 60% of the time when they unite.


Selections


#10 Bullard (5/1) Win & Place

#1 Coal Battle (10/1) Place & Show


Follow Jeff on X @JHSPORTSLINE

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 8:30 PM EST Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX Broadcast: NBCS-CA, KFAA, WFAA

The Dallas Mavericks (28-25, 15-10 home) will host the Sacramento Kings (26-26, 12-13 away) in a Western Conference showdown. The Mavericks are just 1.5-point favorites, indicating an expected tight matchup1. Both teams have been scoring well this season, with the Mavericks averaging 115.5 points per game and the Kings averaging 116.2 points per game.

Top Performers:

Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Davis (25.7 PTS, 12.0 REB, 1.3 STL, 2.2 BLK), Kyrie Irving (24.1 PTS, 1.3 STL, 47.5 FG%), Daniel Gafford (12.5 PTS, 1.9 BLK).

Sacramento Kings: Domantas Sabonis (20.5 PTS, 14.3 REB, 6.2 AST), Zach LaVine (23.6 PTS, 50.5 FG%), De'Aaron Fox (21.2 PTS, 4.8 AST).

This game promises to be an exciting clash with both teams looking to secure a crucial win. The Mavericks will aim to capitalize on their home advantage, while the Kings will look to improve their away record.

ROCKETMAN LINE:  Sacramento by 10.   Play On: Sacramento +1

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Baylor Bears vs. Houston Cougars

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 9:00 PM EST Venue: Fertitta Center, Houston, TX Broadcast: ESPN

The Houston Cougars (19-4, 11-1 Big 12) will host the Baylor Bears (15-8, 7-5 Big 12) in a highly anticipated Big 12 matchup. Houston is coming off a solid 69-59 victory over Colorado, with leading scorer LJ Cryer playing through a knuckle injury on his right hand. Despite the injury, Cryer is determined to play and contribute to his team's success1.

Baylor, on the other hand, is looking to bounce back from a recent loss to Texas Tech. The Bears are led by Norchad Omier, who averages 15.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, and VJ Edgecombe, who adds 15 points and 5.1 rebounds per game2.

This game promises to be a classic Lone Star State rivalry, with Houston aiming to extend their impressive home record and Baylor looking to secure a crucial win on the road. Expect a methodical, low-scoring game between two of the Big 12's most disciplined teams.

Rocketman line:  Houston by 6.5 .  Take Baylor +9 1/2

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 11:00 PM EST Venue: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV Broadcast: FS1

The Nevada Wolf Pack (13-10, 5-7 MWC) will host the Fresno State Bulldogs (5-19, 1-12 MWC) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Nevada is coming off a solid 74-60 victory over Air Force, which has given them a boost of confidence heading into this game. The Wolf Pack have been strong at home this season, boasting a 9-4 record at Lawlor Events Center1.

On the other hand, Fresno State is struggling this season with a 5-19 record and a 1-12 record in conference play. The Bulldogs are coming off an 81-89 loss to Utah State and are looking to turn things around1. They will rely on their top scorer, Jalen Weaver, who averages 12.5 points per game, to lead the offense against a tough Nevada defense.

Nevada's Nick Davidson, who averages 15.8 points per game, is expected to be a key player in this matchup. The Wolf Pack's strong defensive play, allowing only 67.6 points per game, will be crucial in containing the Bulldogs' offense1.

This game promises to be an exciting battle as Nevada aims to extend their home dominance and Fresno State looks to secure their first conference win of the season. Don't miss this late-night clash in the Mountain West Conference!

Rocketman Line:  Nevada by 17.  Take Nevada -14 1/2

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 7:00 PM EST Venue: Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC Broadcast: ESPN

The Clemson Tigers (19-5, 11-2 ACC) are set to host the North Carolina Tar Heels (14-10, 7-5 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup. Clemson is coming off a thrilling 77-71 victory over Duke, which has boosted their confidence and solidified their position in the national rankings2. The Tigers have been dominant at home this season, boasting a 12-2 record at Littlejohn Coliseum.

On the other hand, the Tar Heels are looking to bounce back from a tough stretch on the road, having lost three consecutive away games. North Carolina will rely on their top scorer, RJ Davis, who averages 17.4 points per game, to lead the charge against a tough Clemson defense1.

Clemson's Chase Hunter, who averages 17.5 points per game, is expected to be a key player in this matchup. The Tigers' strong defensive play, allowing only 67.3 points per game, will be crucial in containing the Tar Heels' offense3.

This game promises to be a battle of wills, with Clemson aiming to extend their home dominance and North Carolina fighting to regain their form on the road. Don't miss this exciting clash as the Tigers and Tar Heels go head-to-head in ACC play!

Rocketman Line:  Pickem - Take North Carolina +6

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2023-07-09

"Discover the Top MLB Team to Watch Out for Post All-Star Break"

Why the Los Angeles Dodgers are Primed for Success After the All-Star Break:

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a good position as the MLB season reaches its mid-point (already passed) during the All-Star break. They have yet to dominate as in years past, but history suggests they are set for success in the second half of the season.

The Dodgers are a well-known and respected team. They have a reputation for having skilled players and a strategic approach to the game, which has consistently led them to be considered contenders year after year. However, this season has been challenging for them due to several injuries to their pitching staff, with seven starters currently on the injured list. Additionally, they have faced unexpected competition from the Arizona D-Backs.

A team's positive run differential is crucial in determining its potential success. This indicator shows that the team has scored more runs than allowed, revealing strong offensive capabilities and solid pitching performances. The Dodgers currently have one of the best run differentials in the league, indicating their ability to score and prevent their opponents from doing so. As of July 9th, the Blue Crew have a +76 run differential, making them the second-best in the league, with the Braves ranking first (+140) and the Diamondbacks third (+29) despite occupying first place for most of the season.

The All-Star break is a good time for teams to evaluate their performance and make any necessary adjustments. The Los Angeles Dodgers can use this time to refine their strategies, work on areas of weakness, and come back stronger for the rest of the season. LA has won four consecutive games and seven out of the last ten, completing the "first half" of their season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a highly skilled coaching staff and a talented roster with star players like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and Clayton Kershaw. While they may not be as deep as previous years, they have all the necessary ingredients for continued success. Rookie of the Month winner James Outman hit nine home runs in April but has only hit two since then, both in the same game on July 3rd. Miguel Vargas hasn't been the solution at 2B, so Mookie Betts has played more infield than usual. Additionally, David Peralta has been an excellent off-season signing, hitting over .280 as the everyday left-fielder.

The Dodgers have a well-thought-out strategy for bolstering their roster through trades and deadline moves. Over time, they have made significant acquisitions by carefully assessing their options and taking calculated steps to enhance their team. This aspect of their history underscores their unwavering commitment to constructing a winning lineup and achieving greatness in the sport. I am curious to know which players they will add to the roster before the Trade Deadline.

Dodgers' Post-All-Star Break Performances Show Second-Half Excellence:

The Blue Crew have a reputation for performing well in the second half of the MLB season. Their post-All-Star break performances show their resilience, determination, and commitment to success throughout the franchise's history. Their ability to maintain a high level of performance after the All-Star break has become a defining aspect of their team identity, solidifying their reputation as a force to be reckoned with in the league.

Recent years have seen some remarkable examples of this topic. In 2017, the Dodgers had an impressive run after the All-Star break, winning 43 out of 50 games. Similarly, in 2019, despite facing several injuries and challenges in the first half of the season, the Dodgers bounced back post-All-Star break with an impressive record and made it to the postseason.

Dodgers Prepare for Strong Post-All-Star Break with Reinforcements on the Way:

We have just passed the MLB season's official halfway point, and teams are already gearing up for a strong performance post-All-Star break. The Dodgers, in particular, are poised for a significant impact in the second half of the season, thanks to the imminent arrival of additional support.

The Dodgers are an undeniably dominant team boasting a roster of exceptional talent and a proven track record of success. They have made strategic trades to bolster their lineup and have key players returning from injuries. Any wise bettor looking to make strategic bets after the All-Star break would be remiss to overlook the Dodgers' potential. Given their outstanding track record and bolstered support, it is prudent to consider their inclusion in targeted match-ups seriously.

As baseball returns following the All-Star break, it's advisable to watch out for the Dodgers. They are preparing for a robust post-All-Star break performance. However, it's essential to be selective and not mindlessly support them in every game. I'm optimistic they will have more wins than losses.

Enjoy the All-Star Game!

Twitter:@ JHSPORTSLINE