Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-07-08

2025 Big 12 Conference Preview

Regular Season Win Totals and Big 12 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Kansas State: 8.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +550
Arizona State: 8.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ Big 12 Winner +550
Texas Tech: 8.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +650
Utah: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ Big 12 Winner +650
Baylor: 7.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ Big 12 Winner +750
BYU: 7.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +800
TCU: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ Big 12 Winner +900
Iowa State: 7.5 Over +105 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +1,300
Kansas: 6.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ Big 12 Winner +1,800
Colorado: 6.5 Over +135 Under -160 ~ Big 12 Winner +2,200
Cincinnati: 6.5 Over +110 Under -130 ~ Big 12 Winner +3,500
Houston: 6.5 Over +120 Under -140 ~ Big 12 Winner +4,000
UCF: 5.5 Over -120 Under -140 ~ Big 12 Winner +5,000
Oklahoma State: 4.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +6,000
West Virginia: 5.5 Over +140 Under -170 ~ Big 12 Winner +7,000
Arizona: 4.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +7,000

 

Coaching Changes

Central Florida: Gus Malzahn Out ~ Scott Frost In
West Virginia: Neal Brown Out ~ Rich Rodriguez In

 

Kansas State Wildcats 9-4 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

Kansas St. concluded its third straight four-loss season, going a combined 28-12, its best three-season stretch since 2012-2014. The Wildcats opened last season 7-1 but lost three of their last four yet salvaged the season with a Rate Bowl win over Rutgers after erasing a 17-point deficit. Despite just 10 returning starters, they are the fifth most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference and come in as one of the favorites. The offense regressed last season but they bring back quarterback Avery Johnson who needs to be more accurate and his leading receiver Jayce Brown also returns. Despite losing running back DJ Giddens, Kansas St. has the No. 1 ranked running back unit in the conference. The defense remained steady and will be solid again as they bring back their top two tacklers and have the top ranked defensive line. Kansas St. closed the last two seasons with regular season losses against Iowa St. and it opens the season against the Cyclones in Dublin. Three nonconference games follow including Army and Arizona, the latter is being recorded as a nonconference game and in the Big 12, the Wildcats do have four road games, in addition to the neutral game, including at Baylor and Utah while missing Arizona St. altogether.

Arizona State Sun Devils 11-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 9

The Sun Devils were the surprise of the conference last season and one of the biggest in the country as after consecutive 3-9 seasons, they finished 10-2 including 7-2 in the Big 12, rolled over Iowa St. in the championship game and took Texas to double overtime before losing in the Peach Bowl in the first round of the CFP. It was their first double-digit win season since 2014 and they finished inside the AP Top Ten for the first time since 1996. Despite the loss of running back Cam Skattebo, there is not expected to be a drop off as Arizona St. returns 17 starters. The offense improved by over 15 ppg and 107 ypg behind Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt who was second in the conference in passing efficiency. They brought in two big transfers at running back and receiver to join potential All American receiver Jordyn Tyson behind a strong offensive line. The defense also improved considerably and they are loaded once again with nine starters back and there is no weakness at any level. A game at Mississippi St. is the only nonconference speedbump and the Sun Devils benefit from five conference home games. The issue is that of the four road games, three are at Baylor, Utah and Iowa St. with the fourth being a tricky one at Colorado.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 8-5 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 11

Make it four consecutive winning seasons for the Red Raiders, the longest streak since putting together 16 straight winning seasons that ended in 2010. They were taken to overtime in their opener last year against Abilene Christian and survived by a point but then lost to Washington St. so things were not looking good but won four straight before suffering back-to-back losses against Baylor and TCU before closing 3-1 prior to their 39-26 Liberty Bowl loss against Arkansas. Texas Tech comes in as the second most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference as they have 21 returning starters (11 of which are incoming transfers) and can contend if a couple upsets happen. The offense got back to the potent unit last season as it improved by over 10 ppg and 60 ypg behind quarterback Behren Morton who threw for 3,335 yards with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions and while he loses receiver Josh Kelly, the next two return along with transfer help. The defense took a big step back but this will be an improved unit with the return of five of the top six tacklers and transfers everywhere. The Red Raiders will easily go 3-0 in the nonconference but the Big 12 schedule is a beast with five road games, three at Utah, Arizona St. and Kansas St.

Utah Utes 5-7 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 7

Last season was a disaster for Utah as it opened 4-0 but then injuries piled up and the Utes lost their next seven games, four by 13 points combined, before closing the season with a win over Central Florida. It was the first losing season for Utah since 2013 and that final win avoided a 4-8 record which would have been their worst record since 1989. The Utes are expected to rise back to the top as they are healthy, experienced and have one of the most favorable schedules in the country. The offense has 10 returning starters, four being transfer starters including quarterback, running back and wide receiver coming in from New Mexico, following new offensive coordinator Jason Beck arriving from the Lobos. The Cam Rising experiment is done as Devon Daniels takes over from his First Team All MWC season at New Mexico where he combined for nearly 4,000 passing and rushing yards. A huge turnaround is expected. The defense was as good as it was from the previous three seasons and should be even better with tons of experience. Utah opens at UCLA and then has Cal Poly and Wyoming and the Utes have only four conference road games and while they face Texas Tech, Arizona St. and Kansas St., all of those are at home with the toughest road game at Baylor.

Baylor Bears 8-5 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

It was a tough start for Baylor last season as it opened 2-4 before winning its final six regular season games before falling 44-31 to LSU in the Texas Bowl. This comes after a brutal 2023 season for the Bears that went 3-9 with their two FBS wins by a combined four points so going back to the end of the 2022 season, that late season winning streak last year put an end to a 5-17 run and ultimately saved the job of head coach Dave Aranda who in 31-30 through his first five seasons and he might need a big campaign to stay around past 2025. Baylor is the third most experienced team in the conference and it starts with the offense that has 10 starters back led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson who threw for over 3,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions and he has each of his two top receivers and rushers back to go along with the second ranked offensive line in the Big 12. The defense was awful in 2023 but the Bears improved a good amount last season and will be even better as they are stacked at all three levels. Baylor opens with a pair of tough nonconference games, hosting Auburn and then travelling to SMU. The toughest road game in the Big 12 is at TCU as the Bears get Arizona St., Kansas St. and Utah all at home.

BYU Cougars 11-2 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 4

BYU came into the Big 12 Conference in 2023 and went through expected growing pains as it went 2-7 including losses in its final five games but it did not take long for a rebound as the Cougars opened last season 9-0, including 6-0 in the conference, and moved into the AP Top Ten but suffered consecutive losses against Kansas and Arizona St. by a combined nine points but then rolled Houston in the season finale to finish 7-2 took out Colorado in the Alamo Bowl 36-14. They are not as experienced this season and have only eight total starters back but are still good enough to make some noise behind a favorable schedule. The offense got back to the offense of 2022 but took a hit in the offseason with quarterback Jake Retzlaff deciding to transfer following breaking the BYU Honor Code and now the job is up for grabs. There are not many pieces in place at the other skill positions with the offensive line also doing some rebuilding. The defense had it best year since 2020 and will be good again but expect some regression with only four returning starters. A 6-0 start is very possible with a game at Colorado being the tough one but then comes the onslaught with Utah, Iowa St., Texas Tech and TCU right after, the middle two on the road.

TCU Horned Frogs 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8

After its CFP run in 2022, TCU regressed as expected with a 5-7 record in 2023 but the Horned Frogs bounced back last year by going 9-4 including wins in six of its last seven games, a three-point loss at Baylor being the lone setback. It has been a roller coaster over the last decade in Fort Worth but head coach Sonny Dykes has the program going in the right direction after a slide at the end of the Gary Patterson era. It will likely take something special for TCU to make a huge run as the schedule is the biggest obstacle with it being ranked as the toughest in the conference. The offense is led by quarterback Josh Hoover who threw for a school record 3,949 yards last season to go along with 27 touchdowns and he should be just as electric as long as they can fill the void from losing Jack Bech. The run game was abysmal last season as they averaged only 3.7 ypc and lost their top two rushers so someone has to step up behind an offensive line returning three starters. The defense has improved each of the last four years as it allowed the fewest points and yards since 2020 and get eight starters back. North Carolina and SMU highlight the nonconference and they face five of the top six teams ahead of them in the Big 12, three on the road.

Iowa State Cyclones 11-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

Iowa St. is a team that is lost in the shuffle as far as odds go and a big reason could be it has never won a Big 12 Championship. Or a Big 8. Or a Big 7. Or a Big 6. The Cyclones are coming off an 11-3 season, the first double-digit winning season in program history and the pieces are in place to make another deep run like last season where they lost in the championship game to Arizona St. 45-19. They have had only one losing conference record since 2017 but getting over the hump has been impossible, literally, since it has never happened. There is no reason to count them out despite the odds. The offense has seven starters back with quarterback Rocco Becht now in his third season as the starter and while he loses a pair of 1,100-yard receivers, he does have the No. 1 ranked running back and No. 2 ranked offensive line units in the conference. The defense has been consistent as it has allowed between 20.3 and 25.9 ppg every year since 2017. Six starters are back and while the top two tacklers are gone, we should see the consistency continue. Iowa St. hosts Iowa in the Cy-Hawk with that being the toughest nonconference game and in the Big 12, Kansas St., BYU, Arizona St. and TCU are the only tough games, with just TCU being on the road.

Kansas Jayhawks 5-7 ~ 4-5 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

The Jayhawks put together that improbable 2023 season where they went 9-4, its first winning season since 2008 and the nine wins are only the fourth time in school history they have hit that mark. At 5-4, it was just their second winning conference record and last year was supposed to be an encore but Kansas lost it first five FBS games, four by 17 points combined, and was unable to get back to a bowl game for a third consecutive season. There is not a ton of experience (No. 77 in the country) and only five starters are back on each side of the ball but the Jayhawks are in position to get back to a bowl game. It all starts with quarterback Jalon Daniels who missed 10 games during that 2023 season and played all 12 games last year but was not efficient and every receiver that caught a pass is gone so there needs to be instant chemistry. Leading rusher Devin Neal is also gone as are three of the five offensive linemen. The defense has not been great the last two seasons but still a major improvement as they allowed under 400 ypg both seasons, the first time since 2009, but they lose their top six tacklers. A roadtrip to Missouri highlights the nonconference and in the Big 12, they only have to face four of the top eight, two at home and two on the road.

Colorado Buffaloes 9-4 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 8

It was a rough first year for head coach Deion Sanders as Colorado closed 1-8 and then got blown out by Nebraska in its first FBS game last season but the Buffaloes closed 8-2 over their final 10 regular season games and while the 36-14 loss in the Alamo Bowl was not an ideal ending to the season, it was still promising. 2025 can be considered a rebuild or a reload or a mix of both as there is not a lot of experience with only 11 starters back and replacing Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter is impossible. The offense had been consistent under Sanders in the two years with his kid at quarterback yet had one of the worst rushing offenses but that will change this year as they want more balance. They need it. They brought in quarterback Kaidon Salter from Liberty who threw for 5,850 yards while running for over 2,000 yards. The top four receivers are gone and the horrible offensive line is being overhauled by the transfer portal. The defense improved by 11.7 ppg and 101 ypg from 2023 and there is a lot more experience on that side to let the offense catch up. All three nonconference games are at home with Georgia Tech being the tough one and they have to face six of the top eight in the Big 12, missing Texas Tech and Baylor.

Cincinnati Bearcats 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The hottest coaching seat in the Big 12 Conference belongs to Scott Satterfield but in his defense, the Bearcats have not been very experienced and moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a tall order, ask Houston and Central Florida, so he could very well be safe for another season. But improvements have to come following an 8-16 record the last two seasons and this could be the season they get back to a bowl game. They have the most experienced team since the shift and the offense has a chance to be really good. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby returns after completing 64 percent of his passes, fourth best in the conference, while throwing for 2,813 touchdowns and 18 touchdowns with seven interceptions. Of his top five receivers, only tight end Joe Royer returns so there could be some chemistry issues early. Leading rusher Corey Kiner is gone but Wisconsin leading rusher Tawee Walker transferred in to run behind an above average offensive line. The defense improved from 2023 and should be even better with eight starters back with the strength being the front seven. They open in Kansas City against Nebraska so a 3-0 start is possible. They get five conference home games and three of those are against the top eight teams.

Houston Cougars 4-8 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 7

Houston opened 1-4 in year one with head coach Willie Fritz including back-to-back shutout losses to Cincinnato and Iowa St. but the Cougars rallied to win three of four only to get blown out in their final three games to complete a second consecutive 4-8 season. This followed a 20-7 two-season run but that was in the AAC so the transition has not been an easy one. Houston was very inexperienced last season but is much more veteran now to go along with greater depth. Houston used Donovan Smith and Zeon Chriss at quarterback and both were identically bad as each threw for just over 800 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman will take over and will welcome the new surroundings after being benched last season. They also used a running back by committee with all three leading rushers back but still averaged only 3.8 ypc so the offensive line has to show up with four likely new starters. The defense was pretty solid, finishing No. 25 overall and No. 40 in scoring and bring in a slew of transfers along with a new coordinator. Two nonconference games are on the road but they are at Rice and Oregon St. The Big 12 schedule is not bad as they miss Kansas St., Iowa St. and Utah and BYU.

UCF Knights 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

The third of the three AAC transplants are the lone one to have made a bowl game in the first two years in the Big 12 as Central Florida made it to the Gasparilla Bowl in 2023 where it lost to Georgia Tech 30-17. The Knights fell to 4-8 last season as they started 3-0 but could not overcome a five-game losing streak right after that and they closed 1-7. It could be another rough season in the first under new head coach Scott Frost who is in his second stint in Orlando after coaching here in 2016 and 2017. Central Florida is the least experienced team in the conference and has only 10 total starters back including four on offense and only one that has started here. That comes from the offensive line which will be a work in progress that will hurt the normally potent running game to go along with the loss of RJ Harvey who rushed for 1,577 yards. Quarterback transfers Tayven Jackson and Cam Fancher will battle it out and will not have a single receiver that caught a pass last season. The top five tacklers are gone but they did a solid job in the transfer portal. Three home games make up the nonconference including North Carolina and the Knights have to play five Big 12 road games with four of those against teams in the top six.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-9 ~ 0-9 Big 12 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Losing at Oklahoma St. rarely happens. Actually, almost never as the 3-9 record last season was the first since 2005 and what made it more surprising was the fact Oklahoma St. came into the season as the most experienced team in the country and was a Big 12 favorite but bottomed out with nine straight losses following a 3-0 start. Head coach Mike Gundy gets a pass as he has 18 winning seasons sandwiched inside those two losing campaigns and while it could be another tough season, it should not be as bad. The offense is basically starting over at the skill positions. The leading quarterback contender is Zane Flores who has not taken a snap in two years because of a redshirt and an injury and there is basically zero experience behind him. The top three receivers who accounted for over 2,000 yards are gone as it running back Ollie Gordon who was an All American candidate but disappointed with just 880 yards. The defense was atrocious as the Cowboys allowed 500.6 ypg which was ahead of only Kent St. and help in on the way from the transfer portal but it is not enough. A trip to Oregon is a sure loss in the nonconference and it is too bad they cannot take advantage of an easy Big 12 schedule with Texas Tech being the only tough road game.

West Virginia Mountaineers 6-7 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

It was not an awful six years under head coach Neal Brown, it just was not good enough. He finished with a 37-35 record and in comparison, prior to him, Dana Holgorsen was 44-32 in his final six seasons so it was not that much worse. However, four losing seasons under Brown were the same amount from 1995-2018, a span of 24 seasons so it was probably time. West Virginia hired Rich Rodriguez who coached here from 2001-2007 and only had one losing season which was his first while stringing together three straight 11-win campaigns. It is definitely rebuilding time. Nicco Marchiol is the likely starter at quarterback and he was decent in a pair of starts but the top three receivers are gone and he will be behind an offensive line that made zero starts at West Virginia last season. The star of the offense could be running back Jahiem White who rushed for 845 yards on 5.7 ypc. The defense is in worse shape as while six returning starters are listed, only one was in Morgantown who accounted for just two starts so this is going to be interesting. The Backyard Brawl is at home this season to go along with a tricky road game at Ohio and in the Big 12, they have to face five of the top seven teams, avoiding only Kansas St. and Baylor.

Arizona Wildcats 4-8 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

It was five straight losing seasons for Arizona from 2018 to 2022, the longest streak since six straight from 2000-2005, but the Wildcats broke through with a 10-3 record in 2023 and head coach Jedd Fisch used that to move onto Washington which left Arizona scrambling and it settled on Brent Brennan who was put in a tough spot with not a ton to work with and playing in a new conference. It caught up late as the Wildcats closed 1-7 to complete a 4-8 season and things are not looking much better this season. The offense was inconsistent as quarterback Noah Fifita regressed after a sensational freshman year and that was with Tetairoa McMillan and his 1,319 yards and 84 catches still in the mix but he is off to the NFL so he needs another new favorite target. Their top rusher is also gone and only one offensive lineman is back that started here last season. The defense fell off as it allowed 10.7 ppg more than in 2023 but the top four tacklers are back including both safeties. The front seven is getting solid help from the transfer portal. Arizona opens with Hawaii and Weber St. at home before hosting Kansas St., which is being counted as a nonconference game and they have to face only four of the other top eight in the Big 12.

Author: Nick Parson
Published: 2025-05-05

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

DENVER vs. OKLAHOMA CITY

Game 1 – Thunder -9.5
Odds to win series – Thunder -700, Nuggets +500
Odds to win Western Conference – Thunder -210, Nuggets +1100
Odds to win NBA title – Thunder +130, Nuggets +3000

At first glance, this series looks like a mismatch. The Thunder are deep and talented, they have the presumptive MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they have young legs that are rested after a first-round sweep of the Grizzlies, and they are coming off a historic best-in-the-league 68-win regular season. The Nuggets counter with Nikola Jokic and a team that ended the regular season in so much angst that the head coach and general manager were both fired a week before the playoffs started. Can the Nuggets do to the Thunder what they did to the red-hot Clippers in the first round? OKC is a huge (-9.5) favorite in Game 1, and hasn’t played since they polished off Memphis on April 26 in a series that mercifully ended in four games. Denver gets all of one day off before TV mandates that they move on to Game 1 of the WC semifinals. For the Nuggets to make this a series, they must get decent production from Jamal Murray in addition to Jokic playing like the walking triple-double that he is. OKC will no doubt run multiple defenders at Murray, who can run hot and cold, and use their depth to try to wear down a Denver team whose weak bench will force starters to play big minutes. Denver’s best shot at an upset would normally come early in the series, but the Nuggets took seven games to take care of the Clippers in Round 1, and now face a quick turnaround against OKC, which can’t wait for the choke chains to be removed and get at it again.

GOLDEN STATE vs. MINNESOTA

Game 1 – Timberwolves -6.5
Odds to win series – Timberwolves -180, Warriors +155
Odds to win Western Conference – Timberwolves +425, Warriors +850
Odds to win NBA title – Timberwolves +1400, Warriors +2500

One young, hungry and athletic team down, one waiting in the wings. Golden State used its experience to good effect in taking care of No. 2 seed Houston in seven games in Round 1, refusing to let the Rockets’ double big lineup of Steven Adams and Alperin Sengun control the paint in the decisive game. Now come the Timberwolves, who are just as athletic and just as big as the Rockets. Can the Warriors do it again?  A big question is fatigue. Will the Warriors have enough gas in the tank after going seven grueling games against Houston? Golden State’s front line will be under intense pressure. The Timberwolves were able to dominate underneath against the Lakers, and GS uses a lot of small-ball lineups out of necessity. This series is dripping with storylines. Jimmy Butler back in Minnesota, the place where he made himself such a PITA a few seasons ago? Anthony Edwards, who helped send one legend (LeBron James) home, is itching for a chance to do the same thing to Steph Curry? Edwards and Draymond Green yapping at each other for two solid weeks? This is a great series in the making. Minnesota is an early 6.5-point favorite in Game 1.

Author: Nick Parsons
Published: 2025-05-02

INDIANA vs. CLEVELAND

Game 1 – Cavaliers -7.5
Odds to win series – Cavaliers -500, Pacers +375
Odds to win Eastern Conference – Cavaliers +160, Pacers +1800
Odds to win NBA title – Cavaliers +500, Pacers +5000

The NBA playoff business model has remained the same for decades – forget depth and depend of your stars tom play like stars. If they do, you’ll get to the next round. If not, well, at least you played the game the way it should be played. This series might be the exception, though. Cleveland and Indiana both have the requisite star power, to be sure, but they also both have depth to burn, and that’s a requirement for teams that like to push the pace even in the postseason, where pace is usually out the window and half-court execution becomes paramount. The Cavs used their depth to take control of the East at the start of the season and never let up. You can argue that Cleveland’s bench (Caris LeVert, De’Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro et al) would be able to get to the Play-In Tournament all by itself. The play of the reserves enabled Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen to play minimum minutes against overmatched Miami and be fresh for Round 2. Indiana, which goes up and down the court as fast as any team in the league, can’t match Cleveland’s depth and will rely a bit more on its starters. But Obi Toppin, Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell should be able to hold their own and give Tyrese Halliburton, Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam adequate rest. One sidelight that should get some attention is the head coaches. Both Cleveland’s Kenny Atkinson and Indiana’s Rick Carlisle are as good as it gets. Both have adjusted to the talent on hand and made adjustments. It will be interesting to see just how they game-plan and use their benches.

NEW YORK vs. BOSTON

Game 1 – Celtics -8.5
Odds to win series – Celtics -800,  Knicks +550
Odds to win Eastern Conference – Celtics -145, Knicks +1400
Odds to win NBA title – Celtics +190, Knicks +4500

Unlike the Cavaliers and the Pacers, who advanced by beating wounded opponents (Miami and Milwaukee), the Knicks and Celtics both took their own beatings in getting to the second round. Orlando’s physical style of play left Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both at less than 100 percent, and Jrue Holiday missed the final three games against the Magic. The Knicks have their own issues, with Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart both banged up, and Karl-Anthony Towns always seeming to take hits in the wrong places. Boston’s game plan in this series doesn’t figure to change much from the regular season – slow the pace (the Celtics run only on live turnovers), work the ball around the 3-point line until someone gets a clean look, then bomb away. Boston counts on defenses not being able to play deep into the shot clock for an entire game of possessions. The Celtics have a collective ton of playoff experience, and the Knicks rarely give them trouble. Of the four EC finalists, the Knicks probably have the least gas in their tank after a difficult Pistons series in which every game seemed to come down to the final possession. Boston has beaten the tar out of the Knicks in recent years, and won all four games this season with an average margin of 16 points. While Boston is trying to make it two titles in a row, New York’s last championship was in 1973 – the season the Walt Frazier/Willis Reed/Bill Bradley Knicks took out the Celtics in seven games in the EC finals before disposing of the Lakers in The Finals.

Author: Nick Parson
Published: 2025-03-08

David Stern is widely credited with saving the NBA in the 1980s. Recreational drug use was common back then. the league was so disparaged by the fan base that The Finals were actually broadcast on tape delay.

 

The commish was then gifted with the arrival of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and (later) Michael Jordan, and took advantage by marketing stars over teams. The public bought in, and a few generations later the league is still thriving.

 

Adam Silver, Falk’s replacement, has been just as lucky. Silver must be pinching himself after the Midwest Mavericks decided that they were not going to babysit an out-of-shape Luka Doncic and sent him to the Lakers only eight months after Doncic had led them to the Finals.

 

So while the Mavs look at a grim future with a broken down Anthony Davis and aging Kyrie Irving out for all of next season with an ACL tear, the Lakers ride into Boston Saturday night as the hottest team in the Western Conference and with a legit shot at making it to The Finals again.

 

And while Silver would never admit it in public, he has to be smiling ear to ear at the prospect of the Lakers and Celtics going at it for the upteenth time in The Finals.  The story lines will write themselves. Cleveland and Oklahoma City will get their due as the top conference seeds, but just about every fan outside of Ohio and Oklahoma wants Boston vs. LA.

 

Before Doncic dropped in their laps, the Lakers were just another Good But Not Great team in the belly of a powerful Western Conference. LeBron James was always going to get them to the playoffs somehow, but it looked like they might have to fight their way out of the Play-In, again. Would Davis be healthy for a two-month playoff run? Would LeBron have any legs left? And they might still have to get past the Nuggets, their own white whale.

 

The Doncic deal has flipped that script. The Doncic/LeBron Lakers went into Denver a few weeks ago and spanked the Nuggets by 23, with LA somehow harassing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic into one of his worst games of the year. Doncic dropped 32 points in 31 minutes, erasing all doubt that having two ball-dominant players on the court at the same time would not be an issue.

 

The next test comes Sunday night in Boston, where the Celtics have lost 11 times this season. The Green  might have been freaked by Cleveland’s hot start, and basically have load-managed their way through the season. Thursday night Boston sat four rotation players against the woeful Sixers, and still cruised. It will be interested to see if all hands will be on board against the Lakers on Saturday.

 

The Lakers and Celtics met in Los Angeles a month and a half ago. Davis and James outplayed Tatum and Brown. Everyone else was there to comply with rules that require five players on the court at all times, and the Lakers cruised over a tired Boston team that had gone overtime against the Clippers the night before. That Laker win will be long forgotten if the teams navigate through the playoffs and meet up in the Finals for the 13th time.

 

Like the Lakers, the Celtics have won 8 of their last games heading into Saturday. Boston has been installed as an early 6.5-point favorite. Boston is still a slight favorite to make it back-to-back titles, at +190 after opening at +300. The Lakers, now in second in the West, have made a huge leap and are now +900 after opening the season at +4000.

 

Russell vs. West, Baylor, and Chamberlain.

Magic and Kareem vs. Bird.

Kobe vs. Garnett and Pierce.

LeBron and Doncic vs. Tatum and Brown?

 

Why not?

Author: Nick Parsons
Published: 2025-03-07

David Stern is widely credited with saving the NBA in the 1980s. Recreational drug use was common back then. the league was so disparaged by the fan base that The Finals were actually broadcast on tape delay.

The commish was then gifted with the arrival of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and (later) Michael Jordan, and took advantage by marketing stars over teams. The public bought in, and a few generations later the league is still thriving.

Adam Silver, Falk’s replacement, has been just as lucky. Silver must be pinching himself after the Midwest Mavericks decided that they were not going to babysit an out-of-shape Luka Doncic and sent him to the Lakers only eight months after Doncic had led them to the Finals.

So while the Mavs look at a grim future with a broken down Anthony Davis and aging Kyrie Irving out for all of next season with an ACL tear, the Lakers ride into Boston Saturday night as the hottest team in the Western Conference and with a legit shot at making it to The Finals again.

And while Silver would never admit it in public, he has to be smiling ear to ear at the prospect of the Lakers and Celtics going at it for the upteenth time in The Finals.  The story lines will write themselves. Cleveland and Oklahoma City will get their due as the top conference seeds, but just about every fan outside of Ohio and Oklahoma wants Boston vs. LA.

Before Doncic dropped in their laps, the Lakers were just another Good But Not Great team in the belly of a powerful Western Conference. LeBron James was always going to get them to the playoffs somehow, but it looked like they might have to fight their way out of the Play-In, again. Would Davis be healthy for a two-month playoff run? Would LeBron have any legs left? And they might still have to get past the Nuggets, their own white whale.

The Doncic deal has flipped that script. The Doncic/LeBron Lakers went into Denver a few weeks ago and spanked the Nuggets by 23, with LA somehow harassing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic into one of his worst games of the year. Doncic dropped 32 points in 31 minutes, erasing all doubt that having two ball-dominant players on the court at the same time would not be an issue.

The next test comes Sunday night in Boston, where the Celtics have lost 11 times this season. The Green  might have been freaked by Cleveland’s hot start, and basically have load-managed their way through the season. Thursday night Boston sat four rotation players against the woeful Sixers, and still cruised. It will be interested to see if all hands will be on board against the Lakers on Saturday.

The Lakers and Celtics met in Los Angeles a month and a half ago. Davis and James outplayed Tatum and Brown. Everyone else was there to comply with rules that require five players on the court at all times, and the Lakers cruised over a tired Boston team that had gone overtime against the Clippers the night before. That Laker win will be long forgotten if the teams navigate through the playoffs and meet up in the Finals for the 13th time.

Like the Lakers, the Celtics have won 8 of their last games heading into Saturday. Boston has been installed as an early 6.5-point favorite. Boston is still a slight favorite to make it back-to-back titles, at +190 after opening at +300. The Lakers, now in second in the West, have made a huge leap and are now +900 after opening the season at +4000.

Russell vs. West, Baylor, and Chamberlain.
Magic and Kareem vs. Bird.
Kobe vs. Garnett and Pierce.
LeBron and Doncic vs. Tatum and Brown?
Why not?
 

Author: Jeff's Hochman
Published: 2025-02-20

Grade 2 Rebel Stakes | Oaklawn Park | Race 11 | Feb. 23


Top Win Contenders


#3 Sandman (4/1), trained by Mark Casse & ridden by Cristian Torres


Tapit sires this 3-year-old colt and has an impressive record of 6 races with two wins, 1-second place, and one-third place, earning a total of $344,595. Last month, he finished a close second by just one length to the winner, Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Sandman achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 101 and has improved his figures over the last four races. He won in an Allowance race as the 5/2 favorite two races back, racing 1 mile at Oaklawn. This upcoming race will be his second start during his 3-year-old campaign, following five races as a 2-year-old. He appears ready, featuring a series of impressive workouts over this course. Don't expect odds of 4/1; they are likely closer to 2/1, so I will look for alternatives.


#5 Madaket Road (9/2), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.


This lightly raced 3-year-old colt by Quality Road has three career starts, with one win, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish, earning $80,000. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita on opening day this past December as the 4/5 favorite. However, in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on February 1st, he finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Citizen Bull. Although he appears to be a win contender, especially considering the strength of his connections, this will be his second race in just 22 days. Although I have some doubts, I wouldn’t be surprised if he performs well. Since 2010, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has achieved an impressive record in the Rebel: eight wins, four second-place finishes, and one-third from 16 starters. This results in a 50% win rate and an 81% in-the-money rate.


#10 Bullard (5/1), trained by Michael McCarthy & ridden by Umberto Rispoli


This 3-year-old colt by Gun Runner has achieved two wins and one third-place finish in three starts, earning $129,000. Bullard secured his victory in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes two races ago, earning a career-best Equibase speed figure of 105 at Del Mar last November. In his only race this year, Bullard finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Barnes, and the second-place finisher, Madaket Road, in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. The 5/1 morning line shows considerable respect from the track handicapper for a horse that has never raced at Oaklawn or competed in distances longer than 7 furlongs. However, Bullard is a respected purchase at $675,000 from the Keeneland September 2023 yearling sale. Trainer McCarthy and jockey Rispoli have a winning rate of 28%, finishing in the money 59% of the time when they team up.


#11 Speed King (6/1), trained by Ron Moquett & ridden by Rafael Bejarano


Speed King has demonstrated significant potential, securing two victories and one-second place from three races, accumulating $669,000, the second-highest earnings in the field. He won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park at odds of 14/1 on January 25th. Two starts back, he broke his maiden at odds of nearly 23/1 at Churchill Downs. Speed King's speed figures have steadily improved, increasing from 93 to 103 in his first three races. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and also 1-for-1 at this distance. He will likely attract significant betting interest by post-time, and I don't expect his odds to be any higher than 9/2. His most recent workout is very impressive, where he completed 4 furlongs in 48 seconds, ranking fourth-best out of 117 horses.


Live Long Shots


#1 Coal Battle (10/1), trained by Lonnie Briley & ridden by Juan Vargas


This three-year-old colt by Coal Front has achieved four victories in six career starts, earning $453,875. He has won three consecutive races, all listed stakes events, by a combined margin of seven lengths. Notably, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes, completing the distance of 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn on January 4th. Coal Battle needs to improve his speed figures, as his career best of 96 from two starts ago will not be sufficient to win this race. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and 1-for-1 at this distance and beat Speed King in the Remington Springboard Mile last December. If Speed King is a good bet at 6/1, consider Coal Battle at 10/1. This horse boasts an impressive record, having never lost a race on dirt. Both of his losses occurred on turf. While his training performances might not be particularly impressive, it's important to remember that some horses do not enjoy morning workouts.


#2 Admiral Dennis (12/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux


Admiral Dennis has two wins and one third-place finish in four career starts, earning $119,800. He won an allowance race at Fairgrounds on January 20th, going 1 1/16 miles, as the odds-on favorite. He has been the favorite at post-time in all four races. Two starts back, he stumbled at the start but made up good ground to finish fourth, 16 ½ lengths behind the winner, Built in the Gun Runner Stakes (listed). You must respect trainer Brad Cox, who wins 28% of the time and finishes in the money 62% of the time in all stakes races. He wins 30% and finishes in the money 62% in all dirt races at today's distance.


#9 Smokin Wicked (8/1), trained by Dallas Stewart & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione


This 3-year-old colt, by Bobby’s Wicked One, was purchased for just $38,000—what a bargain! In 2024, he earned $307,542 with four wins, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish. This race will mark his first start in 2025, which may be a disadvantage when predicting the winner. Ten of the last 12 winners prepped with a race in January or February. Horses making their first start of the year in the Rebel have won only 2 out of 14 times during the same period. However, Smokin Wicked has won three consecutive races, including the Louisiana Futurity Stakes (listed) last December, where he achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 112, the highest in the field. His recent workout performances have been impressive, and he boasts the fastest late-pace speed figure of 112 among the contenders. The only concern is whether he can handle this distance.


#13 Tiztastic (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Jose Ortiz


This 3-year-old colt, by Tiz the Law, has earned a check in five consecutive races after finishing fifth in his first career start last July at Saratoga. He encountered some traffic issues but finished third, 2 ½ lengths behind Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes last month. With career earnings of $909,800, he holds the highest total in the field. Tiztastic has won two races, both on turf, raising concerns about his ability on other surfaces. He was purchased for $335,000 at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale for an ownership group that has enjoyed considerable success. You must respect the connections; trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Irad Ortiz have a combined winning percentage of 35% and finish in the money 60% of the time when they unite.


Selections


#10 Bullard (5/1) Win & Place

#1 Coal Battle (10/1) Place & Show


Follow Jeff on X @JHSPORTSLINE

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 8:30 PM EST Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX Broadcast: NBCS-CA, KFAA, WFAA

The Dallas Mavericks (28-25, 15-10 home) will host the Sacramento Kings (26-26, 12-13 away) in a Western Conference showdown. The Mavericks are just 1.5-point favorites, indicating an expected tight matchup1. Both teams have been scoring well this season, with the Mavericks averaging 115.5 points per game and the Kings averaging 116.2 points per game.

Top Performers:

Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Davis (25.7 PTS, 12.0 REB, 1.3 STL, 2.2 BLK), Kyrie Irving (24.1 PTS, 1.3 STL, 47.5 FG%), Daniel Gafford (12.5 PTS, 1.9 BLK).

Sacramento Kings: Domantas Sabonis (20.5 PTS, 14.3 REB, 6.2 AST), Zach LaVine (23.6 PTS, 50.5 FG%), De'Aaron Fox (21.2 PTS, 4.8 AST).

This game promises to be an exciting clash with both teams looking to secure a crucial win. The Mavericks will aim to capitalize on their home advantage, while the Kings will look to improve their away record.

 

ROCKETMAN LINE:  Sacramento by 10.   Play On: Sacramento +1

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Baylor Bears vs. Houston Cougars

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 9:00 PM EST Venue: Fertitta Center, Houston, TX Broadcast: ESPN

The Houston Cougars (19-4, 11-1 Big 12) will host the Baylor Bears (15-8, 7-5 Big 12) in a highly anticipated Big 12 matchup. Houston is coming off a solid 69-59 victory over Colorado, with leading scorer LJ Cryer playing through a knuckle injury on his right hand. Despite the injury, Cryer is determined to play and contribute to his team's success1.

Baylor, on the other hand, is looking to bounce back from a recent loss to Texas Tech. The Bears are led by Norchad Omier, who averages 15.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, and VJ Edgecombe, who adds 15 points and 5.1 rebounds per game2.

This game promises to be a classic Lone Star State rivalry, with Houston aiming to extend their impressive home record and Baylor looking to secure a crucial win on the road. Expect a methodical, low-scoring game between two of the Big 12's most disciplined teams.

 

Rocketman line:  Houston by 6.5 .  Take Baylor +9 1/2

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 11:00 PM EST Venue: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV Broadcast: FS1

The Nevada Wolf Pack (13-10, 5-7 MWC) will host the Fresno State Bulldogs (5-19, 1-12 MWC) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Nevada is coming off a solid 74-60 victory over Air Force, which has given them a boost of confidence heading into this game. The Wolf Pack have been strong at home this season, boasting a 9-4 record at Lawlor Events Center1.

On the other hand, Fresno State is struggling this season with a 5-19 record and a 1-12 record in conference play. The Bulldogs are coming off an 81-89 loss to Utah State and are looking to turn things around1. They will rely on their top scorer, Jalen Weaver, who averages 12.5 points per game, to lead the offense against a tough Nevada defense.

Nevada's Nick Davidson, who averages 15.8 points per game, is expected to be a key player in this matchup. The Wolf Pack's strong defensive play, allowing only 67.6 points per game, will be crucial in containing the Bulldogs' offense1.

This game promises to be an exciting battle as Nevada aims to extend their home dominance and Fresno State looks to secure their first conference win of the season. Don't miss this late-night clash in the Mountain West Conference!

 

Rocketman Line:  Nevada by 17.  Take Nevada -14 1/2

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 7:00 PM EST Venue: Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, SC Broadcast: ESPN

The Clemson Tigers (19-5, 11-2 ACC) are set to host the North Carolina Tar Heels (14-10, 7-5 ACC) in a crucial ACC matchup. Clemson is coming off a thrilling 77-71 victory over Duke, which has boosted their confidence and solidified their position in the national rankings2. The Tigers have been dominant at home this season, boasting a 12-2 record at Littlejohn Coliseum.

On the other hand, the Tar Heels are looking to bounce back from a tough stretch on the road, having lost three consecutive away games. North Carolina will rely on their top scorer, RJ Davis, who averages 17.4 points per game, to lead the charge against a tough Clemson defense1.

Clemson's Chase Hunter, who averages 17.5 points per game, is expected to be a key player in this matchup. The Tigers' strong defensive play, allowing only 67.3 points per game, will be crucial in containing the Tar Heels' offense3.

This game promises to be a battle of wills, with Clemson aiming to extend their home dominance and North Carolina fighting to regain their form on the road. Don't miss this exciting clash as the Tigers and Tar Heels go head-to-head in ACC play!

 

Rocketman Line:  Pickem - Take North Carolina +6

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2023-07-09

"Discover the Top MLB Team to Watch Out for Post All-Star Break"

 

Why the Los Angeles Dodgers are Primed for Success After the All-Star Break:

 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a good position as the MLB season reaches its mid-point (already passed) during the All-Star break. They have yet to dominate as in years past, but history suggests they are set for success in the second half of the season.

 

The Dodgers are a well-known and respected team. They have a reputation for having skilled players and a strategic approach to the game, which has consistently led them to be considered contenders year after year. However, this season has been challenging for them due to several injuries to their pitching staff, with seven starters currently on the injured list. Additionally, they have faced unexpected competition from the Arizona D-Backs.

 

A team's positive run differential is crucial in determining its potential success. This indicator shows that the team has scored more runs than allowed, revealing strong offensive capabilities and solid pitching performances. The Dodgers currently have one of the best run differentials in the league, indicating their ability to score and prevent their opponents from doing so. As of July 9th, the Blue Crew have a +76 run differential, making them the second-best in the league, with the Braves ranking first (+140) and the Diamondbacks third (+29) despite occupying first place for most of the season.

 

The All-Star break is a good time for teams to evaluate their performance and make any necessary adjustments. The Los Angeles Dodgers can use this time to refine their strategies, work on areas of weakness, and come back stronger for the rest of the season. LA has won four consecutive games and seven out of the last ten, completing the "first half" of their season.

 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a highly skilled coaching staff and a talented roster with star players like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and Clayton Kershaw. While they may not be as deep as previous years, they have all the necessary ingredients for continued success. Rookie of the Month winner James Outman hit nine home runs in April but has only hit two since then, both in the same game on July 3rd. Miguel Vargas hasn't been the solution at 2B, so Mookie Betts has played more infield than usual. Additionally, David Peralta has been an excellent off-season signing, hitting over .280 as the everyday left-fielder.

 

The Dodgers have a well-thought-out strategy for bolstering their roster through trades and deadline moves. Over time, they have made significant acquisitions by carefully assessing their options and taking calculated steps to enhance their team. This aspect of their history underscores their unwavering commitment to constructing a winning lineup and achieving greatness in the sport. I am curious to know which players they will add to the roster before the Trade Deadline.

 

 

Dodgers' Post-All-Star Break Performances Show Second-Half Excellence:

 

The Blue Crew have a reputation for performing well in the second half of the MLB season. Their post-All-Star break performances show their resilience, determination, and commitment to success throughout the franchise's history. Their ability to maintain a high level of performance after the All-Star break has become a defining aspect of their team identity, solidifying their reputation as a force to be reckoned with in the league.

 

Recent years have seen some remarkable examples of this topic. In 2017, the Dodgers had an impressive run after the All-Star break, winning 43 out of 50 games. Similarly, in 2019, despite facing several injuries and challenges in the first half of the season, the Dodgers bounced back post-All-Star break with an impressive record and made it to the postseason.

 

 

Dodgers Prepare for Strong Post-All-Star Break with Reinforcements on the Way:

 

We have just passed the MLB season's official halfway point, and teams are already gearing up for a strong performance post-All-Star break. The Dodgers, in particular, are poised for a significant impact in the second half of the season, thanks to the imminent arrival of additional support.

 

The Dodgers are an undeniably dominant team boasting a roster of exceptional talent and a proven track record of success. They have made strategic trades to bolster their lineup and have key players returning from injuries. Any wise bettor looking to make strategic bets after the All-Star break would be remiss to overlook the Dodgers' potential. Given their outstanding track record and bolstered support, it is prudent to consider their inclusion in targeted match-ups seriously.

 

As baseball returns following the All-Star break, it's advisable to watch out for the Dodgers. They are preparing for a robust post-All-Star break performance. However, it's essential to be selective and not mindlessly support them in every game. I'm optimistic they will have more wins than losses.

 

Enjoy the All-Star Game!

 

Twitter:@ JHSPORTSLINE