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Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Eastern Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-09-26

Jeff (JH-Sportsline) is an 8-time NHL handicapping champion with just one non-winning season in his 23+ year career fully documented at The Sports Monitor of OK. Get Every NHL service selection Jeff releases through the Stanley Cup Finals for just $599. It's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Save $200 if you signup on or before October 1st, 2022. 100% Profit Guaranteed!

Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Eastern Conference Spotlight Team

Ottawa Senators (2021-22: 33-42-7, 73 points)

The Senators are on the cusp of making the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Las Vegas agrees, increasing their point total 12.5 points from last season's total. Ottawa acquired a plethora of players that should help the offense and blue-line quite a bit. Alex DeBrincat accumulated 78 points (41 goals, 37 assists) in 81 games for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. He has increased his point total in three straight seasons and is on the verge of stardom. Aside from bolstering their forwards with a former second-round pick of the Blackhawks, the Senators rolled out the red carpet for veteran Claude Giroux. The seven-time All-Star brings in a veteran presence and proven leader in the locker room. His career numbers of 923 points (294 goals, 629 helpers) in 1018 games is hard to ignore. Tim Stutzle (58 points) looks to be on the verge of breaking out after accumulating 29 points two seasons ago. Look for another jump in production with all of that talent around him. Mathieu Joseph had 12 points in just 11 games after being traded to Ottawa last year. He was caught in a numbers game in Tampa Bay and wasn't given many opportunities to play. That will change in Ottawa and Joseph could be a nice sleeper in fantasy. A healthy Shane Pinto will add an additional scoring punch after playing just five games last season.

The defense has the potential to be much improved. I see more depth on their blue-line than any of the previous three years under head coach D.J. Smith. The 4th-year head coach has a history of improving in year four. The biggest acquisition on defense was Goalie Cam Talbot. With the Minnesota Wild, Talbot was 32-12-4 with a 2.76 GAA, and .911 save percentage in 48 starts. Backup Anton Forseberg had similar numbers for the Sens last season. He went 22-17-4 with a 2.82 GAA and .918 save percentage in 46 starts. Having a veteran goalie in Talbot should take pressure off Forsberg, who is more than capable of improving with another year of experience. I think Cam Talbot will start at least 60 games this season. Thomas Chabot is entering his sixth full season in Ottawa and takes up a lot of space on the blue-line. Jacob Larsson is a solid addition on defense after spending his first five seasons in Anaheim. The Ottawa Senators should be a fun group to watch this season. I am expecting the Senators to be in the playoff hunt all season long. They also have a very rich farm system with numerous players ready to contribute if they get the call from the AHL.

Ottawa Senators Best Bet: Over 85.5 points

Ottawa Senators Preferred: Make Playoffs +220

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Western Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-09-19

Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Western Conference Spotlight Team

Edmonton Oilers (2021-22: 49-27-6, 104 points)

The Edmonton Oilers played their best hockey after head coach Dave Tippett was terminated on February 10, 2022. Jay Woodcroft took over and the team went 26-9-3 with improved play across-the-board. Edmonton got swept by the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Finals. They will be on a mission this season. The Oilers have a dynamic one-two punch with the likes of Connor McDavid (44 goals, 79 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (55 goals, 55 helpers). A full season with forward Evander Kane and blue-liner Ryan Murray will be noticed immediately. There is a lot of size and skill on the blue-line. Evan Bouchard had a breakout season with 43 points (12 goals, 31 assists) in 81 games after accumulating just six points in 21 games across his previous two NHL seasons. If Philip Broberg can make a similar jump (1 goal, 2 assists in 23 games), the sky is the limit on defense.

Another year in Woodcroft's system can only help. Jack Campbell will take over in goal after his solid regular season in Toronto last year. Jack went 31-9-6 with a 2.64 GAA and .914 save percentage in 47 starts. He did not have a great postseason which is why the Maple leafs moved on. I think he's an upgrade between the pipes and Mike Smith is a solid backup. Jack Campbell has increased his win total in three straight seasons which bodes well for the Oilers this season.

Edmonton had a +143 shot differential and +38 goal differential last season. They were ranked No. 8 in Face-off win percentage. I would expect all of those stats to improve. This is a team that will make a serious run to the Western Conference Finals once again. With most teams, they will need to avoid significant injuries. Although, Edmonton has a lot of young talent in the AHL that could make it to the big club at some point this season. I think the experience Edmonton gained from last year's run will benefit this team in 2022-23.

Edmonton Oilers Best Bet: Over 103 points

Edmonton Oilers Preferred Bet: Win Pacific Division (+240)

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Inside the Boxscores Week 2 (Part 2)

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2022-09-14

Inside the Boxscores Week 2 (Part 2)

Inside the Boxscores is a weekly feature from Matt Fargo that has been widely recognized as one of the best summations in college football. He takes an in-depth look at each game and pulls out the most pertinent information that will help you handicap games in the future. College football is filled with quirky plays, misleading scores and surprise endings. Fargo takes you inside the action.

Texas Tech 33, Houston 30

Texas Tech dominated the first half with its defense as it took a 17-3 lead into halftime. The offense had three scoring drives of 65 or more yards but the other four first half possessions resulted in three punts that totaled 23 yards of offense and a missed field goal. Houston could get nothing going in the first half as it crossed midfield only three times and managed just one field goal. The Red Raiders were sloppy in the second half with three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and they needed a last second field goal to force overtime. Texas Tech outgained Houston 468-354 but it was deceiving as it ran 35 more plays which resulted in a 5.2 to 4.5 yards per play disadvantage.

Middle Tennessee St. 34, Colorado St. 19

Middle Tennessee St. bounced back with a big road win as it dominated from the start, jumping out to a 34-0 lead before Colorado St. made it look more respectable. The Blue Raiders returned an interception 32 yards for a touchdown on the first play of the game and the offense did its part after that, scoring on five of its first eight possessions with another 10 points coming off turnovers by the Rams. The defense was the real story as Middle Tennessee St. allowed 57 total yards in the first nine Colorado St. possessions, forcing three turnovers and six punts. The Blue Raiders outgained the Rams 380-246 including giving up -10 yards rushing 34 attempts (-0.3 ypc) in part due to having nine sacks for 70 yards.

Illinois 24, Virginia 3

It was not a good start for Illinois as it turned the ball over twice in its first six offensive plays but allowed just a field goal despite Virginia starting both drives in Illini territory. Illinois was then forced to punt in its next two possessions before the offense got on track, scoring touchdowns on its next two possessions on drives of 57 and 69 yards. The Illini had a chance to add more but fumbled at the goal line following a 96-yard drive and the offense stalled the rest of the way. The defense did the job going forward to make up for it and overall, the Illini outgained the Cavaliers 394-222 but was far from efficient with four turnovers and 10 penalties but did not allow a third down conversion (0-15).

Incarnate Word 55, Nevada 41

It was bound to catch up for Nevada as it won its first two games thanks to a +9 turnover margin but it was even in this game and got lit up by FCS Incarnate Word. It did start in their favor as the Wolf Pack recovered a fumble on the second play of the game which led to a field goal and then intercepted a pass on the next play which led to a touchdown for a 10-0 lead. Nevada eventually built a 17-3 lead but Incarnate Word scored 35 unanswered points on four touchdown drives of 75, 82 65 and 56 yards while returning a fumble 59 yards for the other score. The Cardinals outgained Nevada 616-478 despite running 24 fewer plays as they had a 8.9 to 5.1 yard per play advantage but committed 19 penalties for 145 yards.

Holy Cross 37, Buffalo 31

Buffalo jumped out to a 14-0 lead and eventually made it 21-7 before Holy Cross tied the game at 21 and then again at 28 before taking its first lead of the game 31-28 midway through the fourth quarter. Buffalo tied the game on a field goal with 31 seconds left but the Crusaders drove past midfield and won the game on a 46-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass as time expired. The offenses ruled the day as the first eight touchdown drives were all 62 yards or more and it was a clean game with no turnovers although Buffalo did commit 10 penalties for 91 yards. The stats were nearly identical as the Bulls outgained Holy Cross 464-457 on two fewer plays while having two more first downs.

Liberty 21, UAB 14

After forcing a three and out to open the game, UAB fumbled on its first offensive play but no damage was done. The Blazers punted on their next possession and fumbled again on the next drive but Liberty missed a field goal and UAB took advantage by going 80 yards in four plays to take a 7-0 lead. The Flames tied the game early in the second quarter which ended the scoring for both teams before the half. Liberty added a pair of touchdowns and was ready to put the game away but fumbled on its own 20-yard line and UAB punched it in but the Blazers never got the ball back as Liberty was able to run out the clock. The Flames outgained UAB 390-355 and benefitted from four fumbles.

East Carolina 39, Old Dominion 21

East Carolina went 70 yards on its opening possession but had to settle for a 22-yard field goal and after forcing a three and out, went 62 yards on the next possession to take a 9-0 lead. Old Dominion countered with a 75-yard touchdown drive and the Pirates were able to extend the lead to 16-7 at halftime thanks to a 13-play, 90-yard touchdown drive. The Monarchs got to within two points again after their first second half possession and then East Carolina took over with four scores on its next five possessions. The Pirates outgained Old Dominion 531-290, had a 30-12 first down edge and had the ball for nearly 22 more minutes. The Monarchs rushed for just 15 yards on 14 carries (1.1 ypc).

Kansas 55, West Virginia 42

The Mountaineers jumped ahead 14-0 and they scored a touchdown on their first four possessions to take another two-touchdown lead 28-14 before Kansas roared back. The Jayhawks scored a touchdown on three of their next four possessions to take a seven-point lead which eventually went to 11 points but West Virginia kicked a field goal and then tied the game with 35 seconds left to force overtime. Kansas scored on its overtime possession and then returned an interception 86 yards for the final margin. The Mountaineers outgained Kansas 511-419 but did run 12 more plays. The Jayhawks were efficient in the passing game and rushed for 200 yards on 36 carries (5.6 ypc) while going 11-15 on third down.

Tulsa 38, Northern Illinois 35

Tulsa took the opening kickoff and went 75-yards to take a 7-0 lead and eventually went ahead 17-0. Northern Illinois missed a field goal on its first possession and then after three straight punts, grabbed an interception which led to a touchdown but the Golden Hurricane went 69 yards in four plays to take a 24-7 lead into the break. The Huskies made the halftime adjustments and scored a touchdown on all three third quarter possessions and after trading touchdowns, Tulsa scored the game winner with 56 seconds left and intercepted a pass four plays later to seal the win. Tulsa outgained the Huskies 429-385 thanks to a potent passing attack that gained 322 yards on a 16.9 yards per completion average.

Louisiana 49, Eastern Michigan 21

The Eagles went 75 yards on their opening possession to grab a 7-0 lead and after punting on its next three possessions, they went 88 yards on 11 plays to take a 14-0 halftime lead. Louisiana had nothing going on offense, punting on its first four possessions and it had just 95 total yards when it began its second possession of the third quarter and then went off, scoring touchdowns on their next seven possessions. Eastern Michigan did have the lead 21-14 but 35 unanswered Cajuns points made it a runaway. The Eagles had five second half turnovers that led to 28 points and Louisiana outgained Eastern Michigan 459-361 as it held the Eagles to 41 yards rushing on 23 carries (1.8 ypc).

Kentucky 26, Florida 16

The Florida defense started strong as it forced Kentucky to punt on its first three possessions but the Gators only had a 3-0 lead before Kentucky finally scored by going 67 yards in two plays to take a 7-3 lead. Florida followed that up with another field goal then had an interception that led to a 34-yard touchdown drive and tacked on a safety to take a 16-13 lead at the half. The offense completely imploded in the second half as the Gators punted twice, threw an interception and turned it over on downs twice as they got outscored 13-0. Florida outgained Kentucky 279-272 yet managed only 12 first downs and allowed only 70 yards rushing on 38 carries (1.8 ypc) but gave up 15.5 yards per completion.

Oklahoma 33, Kent St. 3

Oklahoma did not dominate like it was expected to as it started the game with four straight punts and Kent St. was able to take a 3-0 lead early in the second quarter before the Sooners finally got the offense going with a 76-yard drive capped by a 36-yard touchdown pass with 18 seconds left in the first half. Oklahoma scored on its first four second half possessions to put the game away but they struggled again late with only 31 total yards in the fourth quarter on four possessions. The Sooners won the yardage battle 430-295 as the Golden Flashes did do a good job keeping the ball away from Oklahoma as they had the ball for over 12 more minutes while the Sooners were just 3-12 on third down.

Texas St. 41, Florida International 12

Texas St. opened the game with a punt in its first possession and then forced Florida International to punt in its first two possessions and the Bobcats turned those into points with a field goal and a two-play, 68-yard touchdown drive. The Panthers responded with a field goal and two possessions later, Texas St. added a touchdown on another two-play drive that went 53 yards. Florida International added another field goal before halftime to make it a 14-point game. Texas St. pulled away in the fourth quarter with an interception for a touchdown capping the scoring. The Bobcats outgained the Panthers 452-313 and held them to 62 yards rushing on 22 carries (2.8 ypc) and just three rushing first downs.

Syracuse 48, Connecticut 14

Syracuse took control early as it jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and after allowing a touchdown, the Orange put up 10 more points to take a 27-7 lead to the half. Syracuse pulled away for good in the quarter as it completed a run of seven straight scoring drives to open the game that totaled 409 yards. The Huskies two scoring drives were 154 yards combined and their other nine possessions resulted in only 48 total yards that included six possessions that were three and outs. Syracuse outgained Connecticut 470-202 and ran 31 more plays while controlling the time of possession by almost 10 more minutes. The Orange rushing game was not good though with 156 yards on 51 carries (3.1 ypc).

Toledo 55, Massachusetts 10

The Rockets opened the game with touchdowns on their first four possessions, two coming on short fields after a punt and a turnover on downs and two longer scoring drives of 64 yards to account for the other two. Massachusetts was able to close the first half with a touchdown with seven seconds remaining to make it a 28-7 score but Toledo did not let up on offense as it scored in its first two possessions on 75 and 80-yard drives. The Minutemen added a meaningless 24-yard field goal with 23 seconds left. Toledo outgained Massachusetts 411-253, posting a 6.5 to 3.6 yard per play edge and the Minutemen were held to 48 yards passing on a mere 6.9 yards per completion.

Weber St. 35, Utah St. 7

The Utah St. offense started with a pair of punts and then after allowing a field goal after the second one, the Aggies returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown but little did it know, that would be it. After that, Utah St. had 12 possessions that resulted in four interceptions, five punts and three turnovers on downs with half of those drives producing single-digit yardage. Weber St. had no problem with its offense that worked the majority of the day on a short field and the Wildcats scored a 33-yard touchdown on one of those interceptions. Weber St. outgained the Aggies 401-283 and it nearly doubled Utah St. in completion average at 18.4 to 9.8 and held the ball for nearly 12 more minutes.

Oklahoma St. 34, Arizona St. 17

Arizona St. opened the game with the first score on a first quarter field goal and it took awhile for Oklahoma St. to get its offense going as in its first five possessions, it punted four times and threw an interception deep in Sun Devils territory. The Cowboys took the lead midway through the second quarter as they recovered a fumble and went 37 yards for a touchdown and they closed the first half with a pair of scores to take a 17-3 lead. Arizona St. did not go away as it cut the lead to three points before a pair of Cowboys touchdowns closed it. Oklahoma St. outgained Arizona St. 465-354 but it took 23 more plays and they were on the wrong end of the yard per play averages at 5.8 to 5.5

Georgia Southern 45, Nebraska 42

It was a fast paced game in the first half as Georgia Southern and Nebraska went back and forth and ended the first 30 minutes in a 28-28 tie while combining for 689 yards of total offense on 83 plays. The second half was also back and forth but not as explosive with just 31 total points as four of the five scoring drives were 75 or more yards. The Eagles regained the lead twice before Nebraska took a 42-38 lead with 3:05 remaining but Georgia Southern went 75 yards in 11 plays to take back the lead and Nebraska missed a game tying field goal as time expired. The Eagles outgained the Huskers 642-575 and while Nebraska won the turnover battle 2-0, it was hurt by 10 penalties that awarded the Eagles four first downs.

USC 41, Stanford 28

USC scored touchdowns on its first five possessions to take a 35-14 lead into halftime. The Trojans got a pair of third quarter field goals as the offense went basic vanilla with the game in hand and the Cardinal added two late garbage touchdowns to make it a more respectable final score. Four of those first five touchdown drives were 83, 93, 75 and 98 yards as USC racked up 505 yards of offense while Stanford had 441 yards but 145 of those were on those two late touchdown drives. Both teams completed 20 passes and it was the Trojans that were much more explosive as they averaged 17.1 yards per completion while the Cardinal had an average of 11.0. Stanford ran 17 more plays despite an even time of possession.

Auburn 25, San Jose St. 16

Auburn won an ugly game as it went into halftime trailing 10-7 and the Tigers opened the second half with a 69-yard touchdown drive to take the lead it would not give back. They scored on their first three possessions of the second half to build a double-digit lead and the Spartans would not go home quiet as they added a pair of field goals to make it a one possession game but failed on the onsides kick and Auburn was able to run out the final 2:11. The Tigers only outgained San Jose St. 378-329 but did run eight fewer plays and had a 6.2 to 4.8 yards per play edge. The passing defense gave up a lot of yards but did not break and the Tigers allowed only 54 yards rushing on 29 carries (1.9 ypc).

Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 10

After an interception on the Eagles second play from scrimmage, the Hokies scored a touchdown after a seven-play, 14-yard drive. Virginia Tech punted on its next possession and then scored on the next two drives to take a 17-0 lead. Boston College closed the first half with a field goal and opened the second half with a touchdown to cut the Hokies lead to seven points but the Virginia Tech defense stepped up by allowing 18 total yards over the final four Boston College possessions. The Hokies outgained the Eagles 284-155 and had the edge in yards per play at 4.1 to 2.6 so both offenses were not in synch. Virginia Tech held Boston College to four yards rushing on 26 carries (0.2 ypc) with five sacks helping that average.

Michigan 56, Hawaii 10

The Wolverines came out strong as expected as they scored touchdowns on six of eight first half possessions while forcing Hawaii to punt on all eight of its possessions in the first 30 minutes. Michigan led 42-0 at the break while outgaining the Warriors 410-51 and it let up the rest of the way with the game in hand. The Wolverines outgained Hawaii 588-253 and the Warriors yards were obviously skewed by going against the non-starters for most of the second half. Michigan faced only six third downs, converting two, and it averaged a whopping 10.7 yards per play by running only 55 plays while the defense allowed 7.0 fewer yards per play. There were only four penalties combined the entire game.

UTEP 20, New Mexico St. 13

UTEP took its opening possession 63 yards in 17 plays to set up a field goal and then each team drove deep into the opponents territory on their next possessions but turned it over, New Mexico St. with an interception and UTEP with a fumble. The Miners got back on the scoreboard in the second quarter with a pair of touchdowns just over a minute apart as they went 65 yards for a score and then recovered a fumble and scored again a play later to take a 17-0 lead into halftime. The Aggies cut the lead to 20-13 late in the fourth quarter and got the ball back but fumbled at the UTEP 14-yard line. The Aggies outgained UTEP 298-261 but all three turnovers proved costly.

BYU 26, Baylor 20

The Cougars jumped ahead early as it went 65 yards and had to settle for a 27-yard field goal. The defense did its job as it forced four punts on the first four Baylor possessions but its own offense mirrored that by punting on its next four possessions and the Bears scored the first touchdown late in the second quarter to take a 6-3 but the Cougars went 75 yard in eight plays to regain the lead. There were two more lead changes before the game was tied at 20 and BYU missed a field goal to win the game. The Cougars scored in the second overtime to win after a fourth down stop. BYU won the yardage battle 366-289 as penalties hurt both offenses, 14-117 for Baylor and 9-74 for BYU.

Oregon St. 35, Fresno St. 32

Oregon St. struck first on a 13-play, 47-yard drive to take a 7-0 lead and after Fresno St. tied the game on it next possession, the Beavers scored it second touchdown midway through the second quarter. The Bulldogs then scored on their next four possessions, two field goals to end the first half and 10 points to open the second half to take a nine-point lead and Oregon St. eventually retook the lead with 1:50 left in the game before the Bulldogs thought they won the game with a go ahead touchdown with 1:05 left but Oregon St. went 75 yards in five plays and scored the game winner as time ran out. Fresno St. won the yardage battle 492-397 but ran 11 more plays and had just a 0.4 yards per play edge.

Mississippi St. 39, Arizona 17

Arizona got on the scoreboard first as it went 75 yards in six plays to take a 7-0 lead but Mississippi St. scored 15 straight points and took an 18-10 lead into halftime. The Bulldogs opened the second half with a touchdown drive of 75 yards to go up by 15 points and then grabbed an interception but fumbled on their first play which led to a four-yard touchdown drive for Arizona. Mississippi put up the final two touchdowns to pull away. The Bulldogs outgained Arizona 426-316 and the run defense was stout as they allowed just 40 yards on 22 carries (1.8 ypc). Both teams committed three turnovers with Mississippi converting their into 14 points and Arizona converting theirs into 10 points.

Inside the Boxscores Week 2 (Part 1)

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2022-09-13

Louisville 20, Central Florida 14

Louisville bounced back from a blowout loss last week as the defense stepped up on Friday. The Cardinals took the opening kickoff and drove 75 yards to take a 7-0 lead but the Knights came back with their own long touchdown drive as they went 80 yards in 10 plays and after a punt on their next possession, they went the distance again with a 77-yard drive to take a touchdown lead. Louisville got into Knights territory three more times in the first half but missed a field goal, fumbled and ran out of time on the last drive before the half. The defense shut down Central Florida the rest of the way, not allowing a point over the last 10 possessions. Louisville outgained the Knights 421-339 and 5.7 to 4.7 yards per play.

Boise St. 31, New Mexico 14

After a scoreless first quarter, Boise St. struck first as after a pair of three and outs, the Broncos marched 91 yards in eight plays to take a 7-0 lead and let the defense do the rest. Boise St. outgained the Lobos 318-123 and limited them to just eight first downs as the unit was able to make up for another lackluster offensive performance. New Mexico scored its only offensive touchdown on a 69-yard touchdown pass on its first play of the fourth quarter which accounted for over half of their total offense with the other touchdown coming on a 100-yard kickoff return. The Broncos offense averaged only 5.0 yards per play and were forced to punt nine times that included eight three and outs.

Wake Forest 45, Vanderbilt 25

Vanderbilt opened the scoring with a field goal after both teams traded punts on their first two possessions. Wake Forest looked to take the lead but was stopped on fourth down at the one-yard line and the defense made it up as it returned an interception for a touchdown. The defense then forced a punt and the Demon Deacons needed just one play to extend the lead on a 68-yard touchdown pass. Vanderbilt turned it over on the next possession leading to a short field as Wake Forest extended the lead to 21-3 and never looked back. The Demon Deacons outgained Vanderbilt 451-294 and had a 21-11 first down edge while Sam Hartman was excellent in his return with 300 yards passing and four touchdowns.

Ohio St. 45, Arkansas St. 12

Ohio St. took its first possession 96 yards for a touchdown but the Red Wolves responded with a field goal drive. The Buckeyes again went the length of the field for a score, forced another three and out and extended the lead to 17-3. Arkansas St. would hang around with a pair of field goals on their next two possessions to make it a one possession game but the Buckeyes added a touchdown for some breathing room before halftime and then the defense took over as they held the Red Wolves to 94 yards in the second half. Ohio St. won the yardage battle 538-276 despite a 14-minute disadvantage in time of possession as it averaged 10 yards per play compared to 3.6 for the Red Wolves.

Miami Fla. 30, Southern Mississippi 7

Miami and Southern Mississippi traded punts on their first possessions and the Hurricanes struck first as they got down to the Golden Eagles 12-yard line but had to settle for a field goal. Southern Mississippi took the ensuing kickoff and went 75 yards for a touchdown to take the lead and Miami could not get the offense going as it threw an interception and punted on its next two possessions before a 10-play, 86-yard drive gave it a 10-7 lead before the Half. The defense carried the Hurricanes the rest of the way as they allowed 122 total yards on the final seven Golden Eagles possessions, forcing five punts and two turnovers. The Hurricanes won the yardage battle 452-240 and allowed 33 yards rushing on 24 carries (1.4 ypc).

Penn St. 46, Ohio 10

Penn St. forced a punt after the opening kickoff and went 77 yards in 12 plays to take a 7-0 lead and after forcing another punt, the Nittany Lions scored on the next play with a 70-yard touchdown run and the blowout was on. They added a safety and another touchdown before Ohio finally got the offense going with a 75-yard touchdown drive that cut the lead to 12 points but the Nittany Lions then ran off 27 unanswered points to pull away for good. Penn St. outgained the Bobcats 572-263 and while they rushed for 234 yards on 34 carries (6.9 ypc), the Nittany Lions went only 3-12 on third down while allowing five sacks. Ohio entered Penn St. territory only three times in 12 possessions.

North Carolina 35, Georgia St. 28

North Carolina escaped against a Sun Belt Conference team for a second straight week as it survived a late rally. The Tar Heels took the opening kickoff 75 yards in seven plays and then after a pair of three and outs, tacked on two more touchdowns to take a 21-3 lead. Georgia St. cut into the lead with a long touchdown drive and had a chance for more but missed a field goal before the half. The Panthers forced a pair of turnovers to open the second half and eventually took a 28-21 lead but the Tar Heels scored the final two touchdowns while forcing Georgia St. to punt four times over its final four possessions. North Carolina was -3 in turnover margin but the defense held Georgia St. to 4-16 on third down.

Alabama 20, Texas 19

Despite losing its starting quarterback early in the game, Texas hung around throughout the game and nearly pulled off the monumental upset. The Longhorns built a 16-10 lead early in the fourth quarter but Alabama retook the lead following a 75-yard drive on the ensuing possession. Texas made one last run and grabbed a 19-17 lead but left 1:29 on the clock and the Crimson Tide went 61 yards to set up the game winning field goal. Alabama outgained the Longhorns by only three total yards and the running game was the difference as the Tide rushed for 161 yards on 24 carries (6.7 ypc) while allowing Texas only 79 yards on 33 carries (2.4 ypc) and allowed just three third down conversions.

Duke 31, Northwestern 23

The Duke offense could not be stopped early as it scored touchdowns on its first three possessions that went 77, 80 and 90 yards while Northwestern was forced to punt twice and missed a field goal on its first three possessions. The Wildcats offense got rolling after that as they got into Duke territory in eight of their final nine possessions but scored on just four of those as they turned it over on downs twice and fumbled twice including the final possession where they were going for the potential game-tying touchdown but fumbled into the endzone with 12 seconds remaining. Northwestern outgained the Blue Devils 511-461 but ran 35 more plays and averaged just 5.4 yards per play compared to 7.8 for Duke.

Arkansas 44, South Carolina 30

After the Arkansas defense forced a punt on the first possession of the game, the offense went 63 yards for the first of three straight touchdowns to build a 21-3 lead but the Gamecocks were able to shut out the Razorbacks offense for the next 23 minutes. South Carolina scored a pair of touchdowns to cut the lead to five points heading into the fourth quarter but the Razorbacks got the offense rolling again with three touchdowns on their next four possessions to pull away. Arkansas won the yardage battle 457-416 but ran 18 more plays thanks to a ground game that rushed for 295 yards on 65 carries (4.5 ypc) while allowing the Gamecocks only 40 yards rushing on 29 carries (1.4 ypc) but did allow 15.7 yards per completion.

UTSA 41, Army 38

After losing the season opener in triple overtime, UTSA was forced to overtime again but pulled this one out. It was back and forth early but Army was able to take control as it went 75 yards in 10 plays for a touchdown to end the first half and then took the opening second half kickoff and went 75 yards in nine plays to take a 28-14 lead. The Roadrunners then got their offense going as they scored a touchdown on their next three possessions but missed a field goal to win in regulation. The Roadrunners forced a field goal in overtime and won with a touchdown. They outgained Army 512-483 but gave up an unheard of 304 yards passing on a 23.4 completion average to the Black Knights.

Kansas St. 40, Missouri 12

The Wildcats surrendered a field goal on the Missouri opening possession but then took over after that as they went 75 yards on the ensuing possession to take a 7-3 lead. Kansas St. forced a punt that set up a 49-yard drive and another touchdown while returning the next punt 76 yards for a touchdown to break the game open. The defense allowed another field goal early in the third quarter and then intercepted a pass on the next four Tigers possessions but could get only 13 points off of those. Missouri scored a garbage touchdown with no time left after recovering a fumble. The Wildcats allowed only 222 total yards but their own offense managed just 336 yards as they went 4-13 on third down.

South Alabama 38, Central Michigan 24

South Alabama scored first to take a 6-0 lead and after the Chippewas grabbed a 7-6 lead, the Jaguars took over. They scored 25 points on their next four possessions and eventually built a 38-10 lead before Central Michigan made it look more respectable with a pair of late touchdowns. South Alabama outgained the Chippewas 502-338 as it ran 14 more plays and controlled the clock for 16 more minutes. The passing game led the way with 354 yards on a 13.6 completion average and while the running game kept the offense on the field, the Jaguars had only 148 yards rushing on 46 carries (3.2 ypc). The defense allowed just 81 yards rushing on 27 carries (3.0 ypc) and the Chippewas were just 4-19 on third and fourth down.

Western Michigan 37, Ball St. 30

Ball St. fumbled two plays into the game to set up a short field for Western Michigan and it took advantage by going 33 yards to take a 7-0 lead. The Cardinals scored on their next two possessions although one was a 20-yard field goal and after the Broncos regained the lead 14-13, Ball St. went 44 yards in just 27 seconds and kicked a field goal to take a lead into halftime. After Western Michigan scored touchdowns on two straight possessions to take the lead, Ball St. responded with an 85-yard touchdown drive but the Broncos capped the scoring with a 60-yard game winning touchdown run. Ball St. outgained the Broncos by 10 total yards despite running 15 fewer plays and having the ball for over eight less minutes.

Marshall 26, Notre Dame 21

Both teams punted and turned it over on downs on their first two possessions and Marshall struck first with a 79-yard touchdown drive and Notre Dame eventually took a 7-6 lead with three minutes left in the second quarter. Marshall took the ensuing possession 74 yards down to the Irish four-yard line and had to settle for a chip shot field goal to take a halftime lead. Notre Dame retook the lead early in the fourth quarter but the Thundering Herd got the lead back late in the quarter and then iced the game returning an interception 37 yards for a touchdown. Marshall outgained the Irish by 13 total yards with nearly even time of possession and both teams were just 4-13 on third down.

Appalachian St. 17, Texas A&M 14

After falling a two-point conversion short last week, Appalachian St. rebounded with a major upset at Texas A&M. The Mountaineers struck first after a fumble recovery led to a 29-yard touchdown drive but the Aggies responded by going 75 yards in seven plays and then their offense completely shut down. Texas A&M had only five possessions after that as its other touchdown came on a 95-yard kickoff return after Appalachian St. took a 14-7 lead and the Aggies mustered only 95 yards of offense while missing a game-tying field goal in the final minutes. The Mountaineers outgained Texas A&M 315-186 and held it to just nine first downs while possessing the ball for nearly 23 more minutes.

Memphis 37, Navy 13

Memphis took the opening kickoff and went 66 yards in six plays to take a 7-0 lead which it would never relinquish. After falling behind 10-0, Navy made it a three-point game after a 62-yard touchdown pass, one of only three completions on the day, but the Tigers outscored the Midshipmen 27-6 the rest of the way. They outgained Navy 506-314 and while the Tigers allowed 215 yards rushing, it was on 58 carries (3.7 ypc) and they forced three turnovers and stopped Navy twice on fourth down. Memphis had 415 yards through the air on a 17.3 completion average but the running game was held in check as the Tigers rushed for just 91 yards on 32 carries (2.8 ypc) and had only three rushing first downs.

Maryland 56, Charlotte 21

Maryland opened the game with a 79-yard touchdown drive in just five plays but Charlotte responded with a 16-play, 67-yard drive that took 7:12 to tie the game and then the Terrapins took over. While a 14-point lead was eventually cut in half, they were never in danger as the offense could not be stopped, scoring touchdowns on eight of their first nine possessions, with an interception being the only hiccup. Maryland outgained the 49ers 617-388 despite running 18 fewer plays as they averaged a healthy 10.0 yards per play compared to just 4.8 for Charlotte. The Terrapins finished 8-10 on third and fourth down while the 49ers finished 9-25 which included four fourth down conversions.

Air Force 41, Colorado 10

Colorado fumbled on its second play of the game to set up a short field and Air Force capitalized one play later with a 14-yard touchdown run. The Buffaloes managed only 14 total yards on their first five possessions which resulted in three punts and two turnovers as the Falcons built a 20-0 lead before Colorado finally put a touchdown drive together, going 71 yards on four plays. A fumble recovery led to a field goal that cut the lead to 10 points but the Buffaloes gained just 36 total yards in the second half. Air Force outgained Colorado 443-162 as the Buffaloes had just eight first downs and were only 5-21 passing for 51 yards. The Falcons racked up 435 yards rushing on 70 carries (6.2 ypc).

Tennessee 34, Pittsburgh 27

The Volunteers fell behind by 10 points on two separate occasions in the first half before scoring 17 straight points to end the half with a seven-point lead. After trading field goals early in the fourth quarter, Pittsburgh took advantage of a muffed punt by Tennessee that set up a short field which led to a 39-yard touchdown drive that actually took 10 plays in over five minutes. The Panthers deferred in overtime and allowed a touchdown before being held to five yards on eight plays to fall short. It was very even throughout as Tennessee won the yardage battle 416-415 and had one fewer first down and was clutch on defense when needed as it allowed only four third down conversions on 18 attempts.

Washington St. 17, Wisconsin 14

After scoreless first quarter, Washington St. took its first possession of the second quarter 53 yards to take a 7-0 lead. Wisconsin took the ensuing kickoff and went 65 yards to tie the game and then forced a punt with 55 seconds remaining in the first half and went 45 yards in 35 seconds to take a seven-point lead into the half. The Cougars opened the second half with a field goal and went ahead midway through the third quarter with a touchdown following an interception. Wisconsin got inside the Cougars 12-yard line on its last two possessions but turned it over both times. The Badgers outgained Washington St. 401-253 but the turnovers did them in as did 11 penalties for 106 yards.

Michigan St. 52, Akron 0

Akron opened the game with its best drive on the day as it went 55 yards but fumbled at the Michigan St. 20-yard line and never got past the Spartans 31-yard line the rest of the way. Overall, the Zips had 14 possessions which resulted in four fumbles, nine punts and a missed field goal. The Spartans were able to march at will but it was far from perfect early as in their first eight possessions, they scored 24 points on four of those while throwing two interceptions, turning it over on downs and punting once. They outgained Akron 496-225 with a very balanced offense and the defense allowed only 22 yards rushing on 27 carries (0.8 ypc) thanks in part to five sacks for 42 yards.

Eastern Kentucky 59, Bowling Green 57

Eastern Kentucky was one of four FCS teams to defeat an FBS team and this one took seven overtimes. Bowling Green jumped ahead 10-0 after the first quarter but Eastern Kentucky went on a 31-7 run that included four straight scoring drives that totaled 276 yards which was sandwiched around a fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Falcons responded with three straight touchdowns to take a seven-point lead but allowed the Colonels to drive 75 yards on 14 plays to tie the game with no time left in regulation. Eastern Kentucky knocked down a pass in the seventh overtime to seal the win. The Colonels had 12 more yards, one more first down and held a slight 5.3 to 5.1 yards per play edge.

Iowa St. 10, Iowa 7

Offense was non-existent for a second straight week for Iowa as it scored its lone touchdown on a 16-yard drive following a blocked punt. Not counting running the clock out at the end of the first half, Iowa had 11 other possessions that resulted in six punts, three turnovers that included a fumble at the Iowa St. one-yard line, a turnover on downs and a missed field goal with no time left that would have tied the game. The Cyclones were not efficient either as they had three turnovers and had two punts blocked while managing only 313 total yards. The go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter went 99 yards on 21 plays that took 11:49 off the clock. Iowa finished with 92 yards passing and 58 yards rushing.

California 20, UNLV 14

California started strong by scoring a touchdown on its first two possessions and had a chance for more but threw an interception at the UNLV 10-yard line on its third possession yet followed that up with a field goal and after gaining 285 yards on those first four drives, the Golden Bears had only 85 yards on offense the rest of the way. The Rebels eventually cut the California lead to six points midway through the third quarter but were unable to get another score over their final five possessions that included three failed fourth down attempts, the final one at the eight-yard line. UNLV was outgained 370-309 and had eight fewer first downs while going 2-16 on third and fourth down.

Jeff's Grade 1 Run Happy Travers Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-25

Jeff's Grade 1 Run Happy Travers Stakes Selection (Race 12)

Saratoga Race Track (5:44 PM ET)

#8 Zandon (5/1) to Win & Place

This would seem to be a competitive race on paper, except for those two longshots. I'm looking for value and it's backed by a strong double angle. Epicenter defeated Zandon by 1 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes on July 30th at Saratoga. Zandon earned a 109 Equibase speed figure, while Epicenter posted a 111 in victory. The discrepancy in the ML seems a bit too much.

Zandon has two wins, two seconds, and two thirds in six career starts and will be making just his fifth start in 2022. Epicenter will be making his seventh start this year. This benefits Zandon in a big way, especially at Saratoga. Check this out. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins just 11%, with an ROI of -68% when his horses run in the second race off a 2-6 month layoff. On the flip side, Trainer Chad Brown wins 25%, with an ROI of +1% in that same role. The outside post seems perfect for his "sustained" running style. Jockey Flavien Prat is a master at playing the break and should have Zandon primed for a big stretch run. Hopefully, we'll get 7/2 or better! Good Luck, Jeff

Twitter:@jhsportsline

Jeff's 2022 NFL Season Win Predictions for all 32 teams

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-03

Jeff's 2022 NFL Season Win Predictions for all 32 teams

Arizona Cardinals UNDER 8.5 (Last Season: 11

Atlanta Falcons UNDER 5 (Last Season: 4)

Baltimore Ravens OVER 9.5 (Last Season: 8)

Buffalo Bills OVER 11.5 (Last Season: 11)

Carolina Panthers OVER 6.5 (Last Season: 5)

Chicago Bears UNDER 6.5 (Last Season: 6)

Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 10 (Last Season: 10)

Cleveland Browns UNDER 9.5 (Last Season: 10)

Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10 (Last Season: 12)

Denver Broncos UNDER 10 (Last Season: 7)

Detroit Lions OVER 6.5 (Last Season: 3)

Green Bay Packers OVER 10.5 (Last Season: 13)

Houston Texans UNDER 4.5 (Last Season: 4)

Indianapolis Colts OVER 10 (Last Season: 9)

Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 6.5 (Last Season: 3)

Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 10.5 (Last Season: 12)

Los Angeles Chargers OVER 10 (Last Season: 9)

Los Angeles Rams UNDER 10.5 (Last Season: 12)

Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 8.5 (Last Season: 10)

Miami Dolphins UNDER 9 (Last Season: 9)

Minnesota Vikings OVER 9 (Last Season: 8)

New England Patriots OVER 8.5 (Last Season: 10)

New Orleans Saints OVER 8.5 (Last Season: 9)

New York Giants OVER 7 (Last Season: 4)

New York Jets OVER 5.5 (Last Season: 4)

Philadelphia Eagles OVER 9.5 (Last Season: 9)

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 7 (Last Season: 9)

San Francisco 49ers UNDER 10 (Last Season: 10)

Seattle Seahawks UNDER 5.5 (Last Season: 7)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 11.5 (Last Season: 13)

Tennessee Titans UNDER 9 (Last Season: 12)

Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 (Last Season: 7)

Jeff is a 7x Top 10 NFL handicapper, including one regular season handicapping title and one postseason title. Just three non-winning seasons since 2008, fully documented. Early bird packages are now on sale.

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's 2022 Pac-12 Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-02

Jeff's 2022 Pac-12 Spotlight Team

Utah Utes (2021: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

I think the Utes are in prime position to win the Pac-12 title once again. The Utes are stout on the offensive line, returning three starters from a team that ranked No. 21 last season. Junior QB Cameron Rising returns after leading the offense to a Pac-12 Championship. He passed for 2,943 yards with 20 TD's and just 5 interceptions. Tavion Thomas (1,108 rushing yards, 21 TD's) and Micah Bernard (523 rushing yards, 2 TD's) return to form a lethal 1-2 punch in the backfield. Favorite target Brant Kuithe returns after putting up 50 REC, 611 YDS, and 6 TD's last season. Rising should continue to improve after posting a QBR of 84.2, which ranked No. 6 last season. Utah led the nation in most starts by underclassmen in 2021. That bodes very well going forward. Kyle Whittingham is a great teacher and leader since arriving in 2004. His career record is 144-66 and is the all-time leader in wins at Utah. The defense was terrific ranking No. 21 last season at Football Outsiders. I think they will be even better this season. I would not completely rule out a trip to the playoffs!

Utah Best Bet: Over 8.5 -125 (Regular Season)

Utah Best Bet: Pac-12 Champs (+260)

Utah Preferred Bet: Utah +1.5 over Florida (Week 1)

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's 2022 Atlantic Coast Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-01

Jeff's 2022 ACC (Coastal) Spotlight Team

Miami Hurricanes (2021: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Hurricanes get a major bump up this season thanks to former Ducks' head coach Mario Cristobal taking over on a 10-year, 80 million dollar contract. He led Oregon to a 35-13 record from 2017-2021, winning multiple conference championships. Tyler Van Dyke should improve after taking over for D'Eriq King, who went down with a season-ending shoulder injury in game one last season. The ACC rookie of the year finished the season with six straight games of at least 316 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, highlighted by a 426-yard performance as he out-dueled Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett to upset the than ranked No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers. Miami should have no trouble replacing their top two receivers as offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has lots of experience breaking in new talent. The Hurricanes' defense should be much improved especially in the secondary where all three freshmen return. Miami was ranked No. 56 in FEI rankings (see below) at Football Outsiders and I'm expecting about a 15 point jump this season. Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.

Miami Hurricanes best bet: Over 8 wins -140

There is potential for the Hurricanes to win at least 10 games. They have a tough schedule at the end of the season with the likes of Clemson and Pittsburgh. They do get the Panthers at home. If the offensive line improves (#96) like I think they will, the Hurricanes will cash Over 8 wins rather easily.

Jeff went 14-6 in College Football last season documented at The Sports Monitor of OK. Early Bird Packages now on sale!

Twitter: @jhsportsline

2022 Alabama Crimson Tide Preview

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2022-07-23

Alabama Crimson Tide

2021-22 Season Record 13-2 (7-1 SEC West) - 7-6-0 ATS - 7-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters

Offense - 5

Defense - 8

Overview

The rich continue to get richer. Alabama lost to Georgia in the CFP Championship and like most every year, it will retool and is currently the favorite to win the championship this year at +200. The Crimson Tide not only have one of the most talented and deep rosters in the country, but they also have the best player in the nation on each side of the ball coming back. Quarterback Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy last season and linebacker Will Anderson, Jr. took home a lot of big defensive hardware and finished No. 5 in the Heisman voting. Alabama lost seven players to the NFL draft, tied for fifth most overall, but this has been commonplace so there will be little, if any, drop off from its 13-2 season, only its second two-loss season since 2015. The Crimson Tide went 7-6 in 2007, the first year under Nick Saban, and since then it has been an historical run of 14 consecutive double-digit win seasons.

Offense

Last season, the offense had to replace eight offensive starters and did not miss a beat and this season, Alabama brings back five starters. It all starts with Young after setting school records for passing yards and passing touchdowns but he loses his top three wide receivers and top running back. The Crimson Tide will rely on transfers to lead at these positions as wide receiver Jermaine Burton comes over from Georgia and has a great skill set while running back Jahmyr Gibbs left Georgia Tech where he led the Yellow Jackets with 746 yards rushing on 5.2 ypc. The offensive line returns three starters but has to replace left tackle Evan Neal who was the No. 7 overall draft pick. Alabama finished No. 7 in the country in total offense and No. 6 in scoring offense last season and despite the lack of proven playmakers around Young, the offense will again put up huge numbers.

Defense

Alabama also finished No. 7 in total defense and it might have to rely on this unit early on if the offense does take some time to come together. Anderson simply cannot be left one-on-one as he finished with 17.5 sacks and 34.5 tackles for loss and on the other side, Dallas Turner is also back after recording 8.5 sacks and both will again cause havoc. The Crimson Tide lost defensive end Phidarian Mathis who anchored the front line the last two seasons but fellow end Byron Young, who has not missed a game in three years, returns along with three-year starting nose guard DJ Dale. The secondary was the weakest unit last season as it finished No. 50 in passing defense but it is not all on them as teams were down and forced to pass. Starting safeties Jordan Battle and Demarco Hellams both return but both corners need to be replaced with three strong candidates.

2022 Season Outlook

The schedule is in the favor of Alabama but it is still never a cakewalk in the SEC. The Crimson Tide miss Florida and Georgia from the SEC East and they get Texas A&M, Mississippi St. and Auburn at home. The challenges will come at Texas and Tennessee with Mississippi being potentially dangerous, but all said and done, Alabama could not have gotten a better slate. A ton of key players have to be replaced but this is not like many other programs as the additions are not raw and come in with plenty of experience. The Crimson Tide are expected to make their seventh CFP Championship in eight years and it is hard to go against that with plenty of five-star players and one of the best coaching staffs in the nation. Alabama has a 10.5 regular season win total O/U so it can afford only one loss to surpass the over and we can see this one cashing but it is at a -230 price.

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-22

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2022

by Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline

The Hall of Fame Game is the first NFL preseason game of the year, which closes the annual Hall of Fame enshrinement festivities. On August 4th, 2022, Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars will kick-off the preseason at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. The game marks the fourth appearance by the Raiders and second cameo for the Jags. The game starts at 8:00 PM E and can be viewed this year on NBC.

You will hear people say "Don't bet on NFL Preseason Football". Big Mistake! It's actually easier than capping the regular season. In most cases, you can read ahead of time the exact game plan for each team. That doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win. Rather, we are just constantly looking for edges as bettors. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Here are my personal keys, stats, systems, angles, reasons, and teams to consider when betting NFL Preseason football in 2022.

1) Depth

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they're the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two-and three-deep (sometimes four-deep) at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first or second series. A perfect example is none other than the Buffalo Bills, who showed up on these pages last year. Josh Allen, Case Keenum, and Matt Barkley will be one of the better QB rotations this August. Don't forget, the Bills have been running Sean McDermott's system for 5 years now. Ken Dorsey is the new OC, after spending time (2019) as the Bills' QB coach and passing game coordinator (2021). Should be a smooth transition. The Bills went 4-0 ATS in 2019 and 2-1 ATS last season. On the flip side, the Houston Texans will break in a brand new head coach (Lovi Smith), new offensive coordinator (Pep Hamilton), and new defensive coordinator (Lovi Smith). Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel, and Kevin Hogan will be learning a brand new offense. The Texans' defense will be learning a brand new scheme as well. I think this team is heading for a rough preseason!

Quarterbacks and continuity are key. NFL preseason wagers, just like those during the regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have solid depth at QB and/or has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third and/or fourth-string defense.

2) Experience

I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, experience can be a detriment. Most older players hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys "mail it in" during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless" and already have their "jobs" locked up.

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to handicapping coaches/systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, the Cincinnati Bengals have been running Zack Taylor's system for three full seasons. The Bengals are going to be much sharper than a team that is going through drastic changes. Take the Chicago Bears for example. They are breaking in a brand new head coach (Matt Eberfus), new offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy), and new defensive coordinator (Alan Williams). All three will be making their coaching debut. Keying on clubs that have familiarity & continuity, and finding teams that are much less comfortable with their new system should give you an edge in the preseason. I can't stress this enough!

3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)

We have a whopping 10 for the 2022-23 season in alphabetical order by team. First year head coaches can be tricky, but generally perform very well in their first August home game.They went 6-1 ATS in their first home game six years ago, 5-2 ATS five years ago, 4-1 ATS four seasons ago and 6-2 ATS in 2019. Last year, this angle was a losing proposition going 2-6 ATS. The spreads were much higher than in previous years and the reduced schedule could have affected this angle. Maybe "Vegas" has caught on or it was just a 1-year anomaly. That still adds up to a bankrolling 23-12 ATS ledger past five preseasons combined! A lot of expectations are put on these guys coming in. They all want to show the owner, GM, players, and fans that he is the right man for the job. Setting the tone early means playing to win in the preseason. Be selective. Don't blindly play all 10 teams in their first home game.

Matt Eberfus (Chicago Bears)

Nathaniel Hackett (Denver Broncos)

Lovie Smith (Houston Texans)

Doug Pederson (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders)

Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphis)

Kevin O'Connell (Minnesota Vikings)

Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints)

Brian Daboll (NY Giants)

Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

4) Competition/Philosophy

If you know how head coaches were raised and what their philosophies are than you will have a big advantage this August. I will give you one HC that treats the preseason as the regular season. That would be John Harabaugh of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are 20-0 ATS over the past five preseasons!! That is not a misprint. His 40-12 ATS overall record in the preseason would have made you a small fortune. On the flip side, Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams clearly hates the preseason. He uses August to scout his younger guys while keeping his starters and key backups healthy. The Rams went 0-3 ATS last year. Sean McVay is 5-10 ATS in his career and now comes off a Super Bowl victory. The odds-makers are going to inflate the Rams' opponent lines this August. Be careful! Keep an eye on the New England Patriots this August. Bill Belichick has always played to win in the preseason, evident by a 9-2 (81.8%) ATS record the last three seasons. NE went 3-0 ATS last year. Bill Belichick owns a 50-35 ATS record in the preseason.

5) Motivation

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC's have different agendas when playing in August and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs. I gave you four very good examples above that should hold true once again this upcoming preseason. Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third or even the fourth back in the day. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the preseason and use it to evaluate their younger guys. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan will be. All you have to do is a little research from the local beat writers. Truth be told, this is getting more difficult to obtain than in years past

6) Scheduling

The NFL preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some key players are a bit banged up then you can expect those guys to be watching in street clothes. Keep a close eye on how players from the Raiders and Jaguars come out of the Hall of Fame game. Also, watch for NFL teams who play on the West Coast (with little to no humidity), and then travel to play a high humidity East Coast game. It would be wise to fade those West Coast teams, especially if installed as a favorite. This has worked extremely well over the past few years with the new strict OTA rules in place.

Jeff's NFL Preseason system to consider in 2022

If you are looking for a very profitable system/angle in the NFL preseason here is one to consider this year. Teams that get crushed by 28+ points in their first preseason game are a great bet in their very next game (week two). Mostly because the public overreacts and the lines get super inflated. NFL teams in this role are cashing 59.8% over the past decade. Choose wisely!

Jeff's #1 NFL Preseason Team to "Play On" in 2022

Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell went 0-3 ATS last year in the preseason. I think we get good value on a team that has more depth than most people realize. I like playing second year head coaches in the preseason that had a winning ATS (11-6) record the year before. Just a side note. The Lions' offensive line is ranked No. 10 by Pro Football Focus heading into this season. Fantasy players will want to draft T.J. Hockenson (TE) and D.J. Chark as a late round sleeper at WR. Book it!

Jeff has earned a profit in 14 of the past 17 NFL seasons, fully documented. Jeff is a 7x NFL Top 10 Handicapper, including a handicapping title in the regular season and postseason. Early Bird Football season packages are now available!

Good Luck this Football Season!

Follow Jeff on Twitter @jhsportsline

Jeff's 2022-23 NFL Spotlight Teams (NFC & AFC)

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-13

The 2022-23 NFL season will be here before you know it. It's now time to start thinking about what handicapper or service you will be investing in. Here are my documented NFL records for the regular season and playoffs since 2008. As you can see, just three non-winning seasons which happened to be in 2010, 2011, and 2021. You can view my past records at The Sports Monitor of OK for verification.

Jeff's Early bird NFL package is on sale now. Sign up on or before August 31st and save $300. After August 31st the price will be $999. Everything's included!! NFL Preseason, NFL Regular Season, and the NFL Postseason.

2021 Regular Season: 12-16-1 (-$2670) 2021 Playoffs: 2-1 (+$910)

2020 Regular Season: 13-6-1 (+$4124) 2020 Playoffs: 3-0 (+$1,320)

2019 Regular Season: 18-11 (+$2841) 2019 Playoffs: 1-1-1 (-$40)

2018 Regular Season: 23-13-1 (+$5599) 2018 Playoffs: 2-2 (+$595)

2017 Regular Season: 25-15-1 (+$2599) 2017 Playoffs: 4-0-1 (+$1900)

2016 Regular Season: 21-12-1 (+3040) 2016 Playoffs: 2-1 (+$465)

2015 Regular Season: 23-24 (+$370) 2015 Playoffs: 3-1 (+$1100)

2014 Regular Season: 27-12 (+$5500) 2014 Playoffs: 4-1 (+$1250)

2013 Regular Season: 21-16 (+$1080) 2013 Playoffs: 3-2 (+$1100)

2012 Regular Season: 27-22 (+$860) 2012 Playoffs: 4-4 (-$200)

2011 Regular Season: 20-20 (-$240) 2011 Playoffs: 3-4 (-$680)

2010 Regular Season: 28-24 (+$1600) 2010 Playoffs: 2-6 (-$1970)

2009 Regular Season: 33-27 (+$3170) 2009 Playoffs: 6-3 (+$1850)

Jeff's 2022-23 National Football Conference Spotlight Team

Carolina Panthers (5-12 last season)

Jeff's 2022-23 Outlook: My projections/models have the Carolina Panthers winning 7.9 games!

The Carolina Panthers' offense was clicking until RB/WR Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury. He's key to the Panthers' success because teams really need extra preparation time for his skill-set. When he's out, opposing defenses can just focus on stopping the team, rather than trying to contain McCaffrey. His health is key to the Panthers winning at least 6 games. Carolina signed RT Taylor Moton who will be a major upgrade. The offensive line should benefit with another year of experience from LT Ikem Ekwonu, who struggled in pass protection last season. The defense is better than you think. Carolina had the 7th-best defensive line at Football Outsiders last season. Carolina was ranked No. 24 in team defense (DVOA) in 2020 and No. 15 last season. Matt Rhule has a good history in his third season, going 10-3 at Temple and 11-2 at Baylor. Thanks to Marc Lawrence's Playbook on the Matt Rhule stat.

I realize the NFL & NCAAF are apples and oranges. It's just hard to ignore that the Panthers' defense (DVOA) ranked higher than six teams that made the playoffs last year. The Panthers ranked No. 29 in points scored (304) ahead of Houston (280), NYG (258), and Jacksonville (253). What's the old saying, if you have two QB's, you have none. I think Baker Mayfield will be a solid backup after being "humbled" in Cleveland. Instead of shooting commercials, Mayfield can now focus on improving his skill-set. With expected improvement from Sam Darnold, this team should win at least 7 games. The big key for me is the hiring of Ben McAdoo to run the offense. Yes, that McAdoo who coached the Giants (with an aging Eli Manning at QB) in 2016, going 8-3 in one-score games. They were also one of the least-penalized teams as well. Ben has a deeper pro background and his time working with Aaron Rodgers adds merit in the locker room.

The Panthers should have success ATS early in the season as teams adjust to their new offense. I don't think the Panthers will "show" much in the preseason, although they should have one of the better QB rotations in August. I think Sam Darnold will take major steps forward in his fifth season as a pro. This is when young QBs start figuring things out and I think we'll see it happen this season.

How to Bet the Carolina Panthers in 2022?

The big difference between professionals and the public is simple. Professional bettors bet numbers, while the public bets on teams. I will be looking for advantages throughout the season depending on the number. I am very interested when the Panthers are underdogs of 3.5 to 6.5 points. I also like the Carolina Panthers +4.5 in Week 1. Don't forget, the Panthers started 3-0 last season behind a ferocious defense, before everything fell apart.

Panthers Best Bet:

Over 6 wins (+105)

Panthers Preferred Bet

Week 1 (Carolina +4.5 over Cleveland)

Jeff's 2022-23 American Football Conference Spotlight Team

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1 last season)

Jeff's 2022-23 outlook: My projections/models average 9.2 wins! I am way higher on the Steelers than Las Vegas.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off an up-and-down season, where they made the playoffs after having to win their final two games. There were many issues with this team last year, including ranking dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (146.1). You just know Tomlin and company won't accept having the worst run defense two years in a row. They hired Teryl Austin as defensive coordinator. He's very familiar with the Steelers, having been with the team since 2019 and has 18 years of coaching experience. Pittsburgh led the league in QB sacks (55) while blitzing just 24.9% (17th) of the time. The Steelers allowed 398 points which is the most in the Mike Tomlin era. They scored just 343 and still managed a winning record. I like QB Kenny Pickett more than most. I think Kenny's mobility and familiarity with the stadium/surroundings will make his transition smoother than normal.

The Steelers went 0-2 against the Cincinnati Bengals and 4-0 vs. the rest of the division. They are always competitive in division games. What I really like about this team going forward has nothing to do with personnel or coaching. It's all about the schedule. Pittsburgh won't leave the Eastern time zone! The Steelers will travel just 6,512 miles this season, which is the fewest of any NFL team. It's the fourth time since 2014 Pittsburgh will travel the fewest miles, and it's worth noting in each of the previous three years they won the AFC North. Also, teams that travel the fewest miles have averaged 9.6 wins over the past eight seasons. Thanks to CBS Sports for that nugget on the schedule.

How to Bet the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2022?

The big difference between professionals and the public is simple. Professional bettors bet numbers, while the public bets on teams. I will be looking for advantages throughout the season depending on the number. I am very interested when the Steelers come up as road dogs of 3.5 to 8 points. I think the Steelers will have success ATS early in the year as teams get more and more tape on Kenny. You can't convince me that KP won't be the starter from day one, unless he's injured of course. I like the experience of backup Mich Trubisky should things go sideways for Pickett. I don't see that happening!

Steelers Best Bet

OVER 7 wins (-125)

Steelers Preferred Bet

Make Playoffs +275 (Yes)

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Jeff's Grade 1 Caesars Belmont Derby Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-07

Jeff's Grade 1 Caesars Belmont Derby Selection

Saturday, July 9th, 2022 @ 5:12 PM E

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:12 PM E)

We like #10 Nations Pride (5/1) across-the-board quite a bit. This 3-year old colt, owned & bred by Godolphin, has finished first or second in five of six career starts. Nations Pride finished 8th, in a "salty" field of 17 when running at Epsom Downs in a Group 1 event on June 4th. See what I did there? The 1 1/2 miles was too far and he encountered major traffic trouble. First start in the USA is only a minor concern. Trainer, Charlie Appleby and Godlophin have been together since 2013. I trust that combo with my money. Appleby wins 50% from 18 starters, past two years in all turf routes for an ROI of +98%. Also, Appleby wins 55% from 11 starters when his horse is off 1-2 months, for an ROI of +115%. I was hoping for 8/1 on the ML, but the track handicapper is very sharp. There is a 50% chance of showers in the morning. A softer turf course makes this selection even stronger. Fire Away!

Good Luck and Stay Safe!

Twitter:@jhsportsline

Jeff's 2022-23 NFL Spotlight Team (AFC)

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-04

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Monday 7-4-22

Author: Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports
Published: 2022-07-04

Miami @ Washington (11:05 AM EST)

The Miami Marlins take on the Nationals in Washington on Monday morning. Miami is 37-40 overall this year while Washington comes in with a 29-52 overall record on the season.

Braxton Garrett gets the start for Miami where he is 1-3 with a 5.24 overall this year, 1-2 with a 5.02 ERA on the road this season and 0-2 with a 6.07 ERA his last 3 starts. Garrett is 0-1 with a 13.48 ERA in his one career start vs Washington. Pat Corbin starts for Washington where he is 4-10 with a 6.06 ERA overall this year, 3-5 with a 5.05 ERA at home this season and 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA his last 3 starts. Corbin is 5-6 with a 4.22 ERA in his 16 career starts vs Miami.

Miami is 10-1 overall vs Washington this year including 5-0 when playing in Washington. Washington is 6-26 this year against division opponents.

RECOMMENDED PLAY: Miami Marlins

2022 Air Force Falcons Preview

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2022-06-13

Air Force Falcons

2021-22 Season Record 10-3 (6-2 MWC) - 8-4-0 ATS - 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters

Offense - 6

Defense - 5

Overview

It was a very successful season for Air Force and it finished tied for first in the Mountain West Conference Mountain Division and advanced to the First Responder Bowl where it defeated Louisville. The Falcons finished first in the nation in rushing with 341.6 ypg which has been the strength for years and will be once again. While the season was a success, it could have been even better as all three losses were by one possession while seven wins were by double-digits. Head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season and 10 of his first 14 seasons have resulted in a winning record with one of the other four being the COVID-shortened season in 2020 where the Falcons went 3-3. The schedule this season is in their favor with seven home games and only two real road tests at Utah St. and San Diego St. and should be 5-0 before facing the Aggies in Week Six.

Offense

The running game will again be the focal point of the offense and there is plenty coming back. Quarterback Hazziq Daniels is back after finishing second on the team in rushing and while the passing game was limited as he completed only 45.7 percent of his passes, he led the country with 22.6 yards per completion. His top receiver is gone but that does not affect this team like it would most others so there will not be a downgrade there. Leading rusher Brad Roberts returns and there is a decent amount of depth behind him. The offensive line has three starters back with all five up front having solid experience but avoiding injuries will be big as the depth is limited. The opponents know what they are getting but stopping it will again be a challenge for those defenses as awareness and execution are two different things. We expect the offense to hum along once again.

Defense

The defense has five starters back from a unit that was very underrated last season as Air Force finished No. 5 in the country in total yards allowed at 287.4 ypg and No. 13 in scoring defense at 19.1 ppg. The Falcons did lose some key players on the stop unit however as all three levels have to replace a top defender. The core is back on those levels so there should not be a big drop off and they have the advantage of having an offense that kills the time of possession so taking the field fresh helps this defense in a big way. The defense was on the field for just over 23 minutes per game last season and anything close to that this year will let the defense do its thing again. The Falcons were susceptible to the pass and the secondary will not be much stronger but it did enough to limit big plays and that will be enormous again. As is always the case, discipline will determine the success.

2022 Season Outlook

Last season could have been really special if those close losses turned into victories and a reversal of that tends to take place going forward but Air Force likely will not be blowing as many teams out like it did in 2021. The schedule as mentioned is not a bad one with a pair of tough road games but as is the case every season, the Boise St. game will play a big role in the outcome and getting the Broncos at home is important. While calling last season an aberration might be a bit harsh, the likelihood of a repeat will be tough against an improved conference so the other six home games, which they will be favored in all, have to be taken care of to have a shot at taking out the Broncos in the Mountain Division. Another double-digit win season is possible but staying healthy will be crucial as depth is the true weakness of the Falcons across the board. The win total is set at 8.5 which seems right where it should be as an eight or nine win season looks right.

Jeff's 2022 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-06-08

Jeff's 2022 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Selection (Race 11)

Saturday, June 11th @ 6:45 PM E

#6 Mo Donegal (5/2) to Win & Place

This 3-year old colt by Uncle Mo is bred for this distance more than any other horse in the field. Past five years in all dirt routes (excluding all weather tracks), the progeny of Uncle Mo win 20%, and finish in-the-money 50% of the time. Strong. The Dam is Callingmissbrown. She's had one runner make it to the track with three wins in five starts (60%). Mo Donegal broke his maiden at Belmont Park and also has a third place finish at what they call Big Sandy. He seems to like the track and we get Irad Ortiz who has a lot of experience at this track. Rich Strike is off my ticket. Improving speed figures in six straight races, with just one win to show for it. Also, jockey Sonny Leon has never raced at Belmont Park and he's 0-for-7 in all 12 furlong races (dirt and turf). Rich Strike always raced well at Churchill Downs (broke maiden by 17 1/4 lengths), but today will be a completely different experience. Hopefully, we can get 7/2 or better!

Play #6 Mo Donegal (5/2) to Win & Place

Late Pick 4 or Late Pick 5 players: (#1 We the People, #3 Nest, #5 Creative Minister, #6 Mo Donegal)

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Jeff's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-05-18

Jeff's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Selection (Race 13) #5 Early Voting (7/2) Win & Place I have been on the Epicenter bandwagon, picking him to win his past three races. At 6/5 and two week turnaround, I'm jumping off after his career-best 105 Equibase speed figure. Chad Brown skipped the Kentucky Derby to train this 3-year colt by Gun Runner and specifically point to this race. Early Voting finished second by a nose to Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 9th at Aqueduct. Mo Donegal came back to run well in the Kentucky Derby and should be one of your favorites in the Belmont Stakes. Not sold on the filly Secret Oath, coming back after 15 days while sporting a dosage over 8. Early Voting is fresh, with improving speed figures in all three career starts. Chad Brown wins 27% with horses returning from 1-2 month layoff. I really like this new shooter quite a bit! Twitter:@jhsportsline

Jeff's Top 5 Kentucky Derby Win Contenders

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-05-03

Here are my Top 5 win contenders (in no paticular order) for Saturday's Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

#3 Epicenter (7/2), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Joel Rosario

After finishing sixth at first asking, this 3-year old son of Not This Time has been first or second in all five starts (4-1-0) with career earnings of $1,010,640. Has posted four straight 97 Equibase speed figures and still has room to improve. Easily won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in front-running fashion in his final prep. I don't think the extra distance will be a problem. The progeny of Not This Time are winning 23% (+6% ROI) in all dirt routes over the past five years. Looks like rain Friday and than not as heavy on Saturday. Epicenter has a win on an off track at Churchill Downs. Major player & my top pick. See below.

#6 Messier (8/1), trained by Tim Yakteen & ridden by John Velazquez

Previously trained by Bob Baffert. You know the story. Finished second by 2 1/4 lengths in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, earning a solid 99 Equibase speed figure. The horse that finishes second in the Santa Anita Derby usually outruns his odds in this race. Has finished first or second in all six career starts, earning $435,600. That's hard to ignore. Has never run at Churchill Downs and nary a start on a wet track. Win Contender!

#10 Zandon (3/1), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Flavien Prat

Has finished in-the-money all four career starts (2-1-1) with earnings of $713,000. Zandon broke his maiden at first asking in a MSW race at Belmont Park and than race second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. This 3-year old colt by Upstart made his 2022 debut running second in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds than shipped to Keeneland to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass on an off track listed as good. He earned a career-best 107 Equibase speed figure and owns the fastest late-pace speed figure of the bunch (120.5). Naturally, a bounce could happen but this horse is very talented and Brown/Prat combo win 27% together. Zandon has a sustained running style and must navigate through traffic turning for home. Prat is one of the best at his craft and is no stranger winning grade 1 races. Win Contender!

#12 Taiba (12/1), trained by Tim Yakteen & ridden by Mike Smith

Moved to the Yakteen barn just like Messier so they could earn points for this race. If you like Messier, than you have to like this son of Gun Runner, who are bred to run all day and all night. Two wins from two career starts, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby earning a 102 Equibase speed figure. Should be on or near the lead with a clean break. Owns the fastest early pace (114.7), fastest middle pace (103.2), and 7th fastest late speed figure (101). No starts on an off track is a concern. Also, Taiba has only run in California and didn't start as a 2-year old. Since 1937, the record of horses in the Kentucky Derby without a race at age two is 0-for-58 since. UGH! Maybe this angle is due to lose. "Money" Mike Smith got that nickname for a reason. Win Contender!

#5 Smile Happy (20/1), trained by Kenneth McPeek & ridden by Cory Lanerie

Why is this horse 20/1? Certainty has the bloodlines to win this type of race. This 3-year old son by Run Happy (maybe you heard of him) has been first or second in all four career starts (2-2-0) with earnings of $549,810. Smile Happy broke his maiden in his first start at Keeneland last October and followed with a win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. He made his 2022 debut finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds. Finished 2nd to Zandon in the Grade 2 Blue Grass in his final prep, earning a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure. He's live here and his chances go way up on a wet track. If the track is wet, you will want to play this horse across-the-board. The Dam (Pleasant Smile) has produced numerous winners (5-for-56) on off tracks, and we know the Run Happy horses have embraced wet tracks. His works in the morning have been eye-popping and should be rolling late. Owns the 3rd fastest late-pace speed figure (111.5) in the field. Live Longshot!

How to bet the 2022 Kentucky Derby:

Play #3 Epicenter (7/2) to Win, Place, and Show

Play #6 Messier (8/1) to Place and Show

Play #5 Smile Happy (20/1) to Show

$0.50 Trifecta Box (3, 5, 6, 10, 12)

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-31

Saturday, April 1st (7:35 PM E)

Grade 1 Arkansas Derby (Race 12)

#9 We the People (7/2) across-the-board

This son by Constitution has two wins from two starts at Oaklawn Park. Owns the fastest middle pace speed figure (97.4) and the fastest late pace (113.5) in this field. Will need a clean break to establish position into the first turn. That will be key from the #9 post. Flavien Prat could have rode Doppelganger. Maybe he knows something. His past three works over this track (Oaklawn Park) have been eye-opening. I believe this horse will take another step forward and be a major factor at a decent price.

twitter:@jhsportsline

Jeff's Top 3 MLB Season Win Total best bets in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-25

JEFF'S TOP 3 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL BEST BETS IN 2022

No. 1 San Francisco Giants Under 85.5 -115

The Giants benefited from career years by aging stars Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford last season. Busty Posey retired and a major regression is in store for this Giants team. The Dodgers and Padres figure to be really good once again. The Diamondbacks and Rockies will playing all year with revenge against the Giants. They stay relatively healthy in their rotation and that doesn't always work out two years in a row. PECOTA projects 77.8 wins. My models have it closer to 80. Lots of wiggle room. Either way, it's my favorite Over/Under play for 2022.

No . 2 LA Angels Over 84 -110

I can't believe how low this is considering the rest of the division will be top heavy with the Astros. The Angels have not won 85 games since 2015. They have the two favorites to win the AL MVP and added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation. He fits nicely right behind Ohtani and Reid Detmers is a nice prospect who doesn't have a rotation spot right now. Good problem to have. Detmers would have made my list if he was penciled in as the 5th starter. He's listed as the 6th starter. My point, the Angles have an improved pitching staff and they should have no trouble scoring runs. They need to stay relatively healthy and a playoff appearance just might happen. PECOTA projects 88.4 wins. I have it at 89, and really like this team going forward!

No. 3 LA Dodgers Over 97.5 -115

This one seems too easy. In the past four full seasons (not counting pandemic), the LA dodgers have averaged 102 victories. You might say, they are not as deep as last year. True, but the Dodgers have deep pockets and always make the deadline deal (taking on salary) that improves their chances of winning. That's what you want when betting Over season win totals. The Dodgers have a rich farm system still and can tap into that market at any time. The Dodgers offense should be sick! You will see some new young faces on this Dodgers' team that will contribute to at least 99 wins. PECOTA projects 101. wins. This is a blue chip stock. Go Over 97.5!

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-25

Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes

Saturday, March 26th (4:00 PM PT)

Santa Anita Race Track (Race 7)

Play #9 Carpe Vinum (12/1) to Win, Place, and Show

Handicapping horse racing is about projecting. You can't just rely on past performances. Leading jockey Flavien Prat rode Carpe Vinum last race, and said after he wants to ride her again. Unfortunately, Prat is in Dubai. Ryan Curatolo gets a 4 pound bug and he fits CV nicely. This horse needs more distance and finally gets it. Trainer Phil D'Amato was beaming after her last work and D'Amato is red hot--- winning 22% over the past 30 days. Carpe Vinum has the fastest late-pace speed figure of this bunch. She's sitting on a huge race. Tremendous value. You heard it here first!

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's Top 5 Left-handed Starters Age 27 or Younger in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-24

The elite left-handed starters have a big advantage just for the simple fact that most players see a lot more right-handed pitching. Look for teams that have not faced a Quality Left-handed starter for some time (five games or more) and you will have a nice winning investment. Here are my Top 5 Left-handed starting pitchers age 27 or younger going forward for the 2022 season. Baseball is back baby!

No. 1 Julio Urias (LA Dodgers) AGE: 25 (2021: 20-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)

Was No. 3 on this list in 2020-21 and will occupy the top spot until he's no longer eligible. Julio had a breakout year for the Blue Crew last season. For his career, Urias has 427 strikeouts in 424.2 innings with a 32-10 record and 3.09 ERA. The Dodgers have refused every trade when teams asked for Julio ever since his rookie year back in 2016. At age 25, he is no longer on a restricted pitch count, although the Dodgers are extremely analytical in their decision making. His "stuff" is dynamic featuring a mid to upper 90s fastball, cutter, slider, curve-ball and devastating change-up. I would expect another tremendous season. The Dodgers' offense looks unstoppable (especially with DH), so reaching 20 wins seems obtainable. Dodger Stadium ranked the 12th toughest in runs scored last year according to ESPN Park Factors. Grab him as an Ace in the 2nd round. Love him!

No. 2 Trevor Rogers (Miami Marlins) AGE: 24 (2021: 7-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)

Trevor is about to have his best season of his career. Thanks, Captain Obvious! Last season, Rogers recorded 157 strikeouts in just 133 IP. If he gets more run support this year, you're looking at 15-20 wins. I would expect a slight regression in ERA and WHIP on the road. At home, Marlins Park ranked the toughest stadium in runs scored by ESPN Park Factors. The strikeouts will always be there with a sterling 28.8% K-rate. Huge in fantasy. Good for straight wagers too especially as underdogs. You can draft him in the 2nd to sixth round depending on your needs. Don't miss out. These young stud lefties are hard to find. Should be an All-Star in 2022!

No. 3 Aaron Ashby (Milwaukee Brewers) AGE: 23 (2021: 3-2, 4.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

Appeared in 13 games (4 starts) last season and recorded 39 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. Ashby averaged 96.5 MPH on his sinking fastball last season, while routinely touching 97-99. His slider is devastating (82-85 MPH), with sharp break leading to a 42% strikeout rate. His third best pitch is an above average upper 80s diving change-up that produces a lot of strikeouts. Ashby also has an upper 70s looping curve-ball which is just for show. The Brewers want less walks from Ashby which should come with more experience. The Brewers are high on him and you should be too. Ashby will be battling for the 5th spot this spring. He's too talented not to crack the rotation at some point. Keep an eye on him. Don't forget, at least 50% of all starters will land on the IL at some point. He's unlikely to win 15-20 games, but 8-10 wins with 175 K's in 150 IP will help your team. Mid to Late round steal!

No. 4 Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers) AGE: 25 (2021: 8-12, 4.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)

Tarik Skubal will be the fourth starter to begin the season. His numbers have improved in each of his first two big-league seasons. Last year, Skubal continued his upward trend with 164 strikeouts in 149.1 IP. His 26.1% career K-rate is very impressive. Skubal allowed 35 Home Runs last season, but don't let that scare you from backing or drafting him. Young pitchers only get better with more innings, and Detroit's home stadium ranked as the 6th-toughest in runs scored last year. A lot of that had to with the Tigers' offense. I get that. Detroit's offense should be better with the addition Baez and Schoop. Look for a "breakout" season in terms of Innings, strikeouts, and hopefully 10+ wins. Another mid to late round steal!

No. 5 Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins) AGE: 24 (2021: 6-9, 6.61 ERA, 1.61 WHIP)

Another Marlin! The numbers don't jump off the page, but even the best pitchers can struggle early in careers. The Marlins are very exited of what they will see from this highly touted prospect. Jesus throws in the upper 90s, with a tremendous slider, curve-ball, and change-up. Last year, he recorded 98 strikeouts in 95.1 innings shuffling between the bullpen and starter. The Marlins have Luzardo listed as their fifth starter, which should help his mental game. Marlins Park surrendered the fewest runs in all of baseball last season according to ESPN Park Factors. Look for 10-15 wins with more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2022. The Marlins should also be better on offense. PECOTA projects 707 runs scored, which is more than they scored last season (623). Late round sleeper with ginormous upside!

Jeff's success in MLB is well-documented since 1998. Jeff was ranked No. 1 in MLB last season at The Sports Monitor of OK. Not a one time thing. Jeff was ranked No. 5 two seasons ago, and No. 3 three years ago. Numerous Top 10 rankings as well. Jeff's Early Bird MLB package now available! It's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Just $499 for the entire season thru World Series. Save $200!

Good Luck this Baseball Season!

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-03

Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Preview (Race 11)

Saturday, March 5th, 2022 (5:00 PM PT)

#1 Spielberg (8/1), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Abel Cedillo

Purchased for 1 million dollars.This 4-year old Chestnut Colt by Union Rags has finished in-the-money in 7 of 11 (3-3-1) starts with career earnings of $475,900. Finished 4th in the San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22, earning a 96 Equibase speed figure. The workouts have been fast, but Baffert is known for that. If you see a Baffert horse with a slow work pattern that would be a red flag. Improving speed figures in three straight races is encouraging. The one big question remains. Has this horse reached its peek. My answer would be yes. Never a good sign when Prat chooses to ride a different horse. I don't think this horse can handle 1 1/4 miles. I do like the combination of Baffert and Cedillio. Toss!

#2 Why Why Paul Why (6/1), trained by Michael McCarthy & ridden by Juan Hernandez

Funny name. Was claimed for $30,000 which has proven to be a good one. Has been first or second in 11 of 19 starts (6-5-0) with career earnings of $196,178. Finished second in the Jazil Stakes on 1/22/22 at Aqueduct after winning four straight. The speed figures are solid with a 104, 108, and 101 in his last three. He will be making his first start in California for his new trainer (McCarthy) after racking up five wins in seven starts for trainer Penny Pearce on the East Coast. Takes a major step up in class today. His speed figures match-up with the big boys. I really like McCarthy and Juan Hernandez, who are both underrated in my opinion. Most people named Paul will bet this horse. Use Underneath!

#3 Warrant (4/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Flavien Prat

A good band back in the day. Has never finished out of the money in eight starts (3-3-2) with career earnings of $649,700. AWarrant is by Constitution, who has produced numerous graded stakes victories. Finished third in the Louisiana Stakes on 1/22/22, earning a 101 Equibase speed figure. Before that, he won the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby earning that same 101 speed rating. His speed figures are a notch below some of his rivals, but he's lightly raced as a 4-year old and eligible for improvement. Prat finished fourth with Independence Hall last year. I think this horse is better! Win Contender!

#4 Soy Tapito (20/1), trained by Doug O'Neill & ridden by Diego Herrera

Has two wins and two thirds from six lifetime starts ($101,480). This gelded son of Not This Time will make his Graded stakes debut after winning two in a row. A MSW win on 1/8/22 at Santa Anita, followed by an Allowance victory on 2/18/22, earning a career-best 106 speed figure. Intriguing horse and those two wins at Santa Anita were visibly impressive. Mercado Racing and Doug O'Neill have high hopes for this horse, hence the quick turnaround. Soy Tapito is bred to go long. This horse won his maiden in front-running fashion and than rallied with a sustained come-from-behind win last time out. Apprentice jockey Herrera has options. This could be his breakout performance. Longshot Win Contender!

#5 American Theorem (12/1), trained by George Papaprodromou & ridden by Mike Smith

This son by American Pharoah has finished first or second in five of eight (2-3-0) with career earnings of $169,267. Hasn't lived up to the hype. Finished 6th (last) in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22. The speed figure was slow (86) and there was a legitimate excuse. AT got shuffled back on the first turn losing momentum to eventual winner Express Train. I would expect jockey Mike Smith to engage AT earlier out of the gate. Does he have enough class to win this type of race. Yes, but hasn't shown it yet. Until he does you can Toss!

#6 Express Train (8/5), trained by John Shirreffs & ridden by Victor Espinoza

I will always have a soft spot for Victor Espinoza as he was the first jockey to ride my horse, Tizamagician. The Train has finished in-the-money 13 of 16 starts (6-4-3) with career earnings of $935,800. Very impressive. He won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22 earning a 106 speed figure. Before that, he won the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes and certainty loves running at Santa Anita. Improving speed figures in three straight races. ET has won four Grade 2 races and is looking for a bigger prize. The 5-year old colt by Union Rags will get plenty of action at the window. I am not sold on him in this race. The One to Beat!

#7 Kiss Today Goodbye (15/1), trained by Eric Kruljac & ridden by Kyle Frey

Speaking of Tizamagician, he's beat this horse several times in graded stakes action. Kiss Today Goodbye has three wins, one second, and three thirds from 17 career starts ($306,302). Not sure why the connections keep running in graded stakes. Finished 7th in Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup on 1/23/21, 6th in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last year, 8th in the Grade 2 San Diego on 7/17/21, 2nd in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes on 11/21/21, 7th in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes on 12/26/21, and 5th last time out in the Grade 2 San Pasqual on 2/5/22. Does that give you confidence to back this horse? Maybe he wakes up in this Grace 1 at a nice price. Even with this soft field, I would be shocked if he won. Toss!

#8 Stilleto Boy (5/2), trained by Ed Moger Jr. & ridden by John Velazquez

Has finished in-the-money 10 of 13 (2-3-5) career starts, earning $833,175. The 4-year old Chestnut gelding by Shackleford has been running in Grade 1 races only. Finished 3rd in the Pegasus World Cup to Life is Good and Knicks Go, 3rd in Grade 1 Run Happy Malibu Stakes losing to Flightline, 5th in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Classic, and 2nd in the Grade 1 Awesome Again losing to Medina Spirit (RIP) who was probably cheating. I can't prove that though. Positive jockey change to Velazquez, who does well on horses with a pressing/sustained running style. Owns the highest Equibase speed figure (117) of the bunch which occurred in his last race. You can make the argument that Stilleto Boy is getting class relief after facing those juggernauts in the Pegasus World Cup. Win Contender and my Top Choice!

Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Selections

Play #8 Stilleto Boy (5/2) to win, place, and show (I would expect we get at least 7/2)

#3 Warrent (4/1) (Place)

#4 Soy Tapito (20/1) (Show)

#6 Express Train (8/5) (Fourth)

$1.00 Trifecta Box ($24)

Using the four horses above.

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Big South Conference tournament odds and power ratings

Author: Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports
Published: 2022-03-02

BIG SOUTH CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Here are my Big South Conference power ratings as of Tuesday 3-1-22! (Odds to win the conference tournament beside each team)

Winthrop 73.21 (+220)

UNC Asheville 70.5 (+750)

Longwood 70.02 (+145)

Gardner Webb 68.28 (+550)

High Point 67.83 (+2300)

Campbell 66.43 (+1900)

Presbyterian 65.48 (+24000)

Radford 64.38 (+24000)

Hampton 62.92 (+50000)

USC Upstate 60.64 (+2300)

NC A&T 59.32 (+13000)

Charleston Southern 57.59 (+50000)

Longwood comes in as the favorite to win the Big South Conference title this year. Winthrop is right behind them 2nd on the list of favorites to win. Then Gardner Webb and UNC Asheville is next in line. The oddsmakers are saying that Charleston Southern and Hampton have no shot at winning this with their +50000 odds. Radford and Presbyterian are also coming in with huge odds to win both at +24000. My long shot to win this conference would have to be either Gardner Webb or UNC Asheville. I really liked this Campbell team this year but they finished 8-8 in the conference which was 5th best in the regular season. I like Winthrop to win this. They always seem to step it up come tournament time and they finished with a 14-2 conference record only behind Longwood and their 15-1 conference record.

Thanks and good luck,

Rocky Atkinson

http://www.rocketmansports.net

https://www.winningcappers.net

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament odds and power ratings

Author: Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports
Published: 2022-03-02

OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Here are my Ohio Valley Conference power ratings as of Tuesday 3-1-22! (Odds to win the conference tournament beside each team)

Murray State 83.48 (-175)

Belmont 75.96 (+240)

Morehead State 73.21 (+900)

Southeast Missouri State 72.09 (+1800)

Tennessee State 68.28 (+4700)

SIU Edwardsville 63.06 (+50000)

Austin Peay 62.84 (+15000)

Tennessee Tech 61.33 (+8500)

Tennessee Martin 60.38

Eastern Illinois 50.91

Murray State went undefeated in conference play this year and has only lost 2 games and they find themselves ranked in the Top 20 in the nation. Belmont will always be a thorn in their side it seems and keep an eye on Morehead State and Southeast Missouri State who both gave Murray State all they could handle in their most recent games against the Racers. Murray State should win the conference tournament but I think they should make the tournament regardless this year. If I absolutely had to play a long shot to win this conference tournament, I think I’d have to go with Morehead State at 9 to 1 odds with Southeast Missouri State coming in a close 2nd, but I’m all about Murray State here.

Thanks and good luck,

Rocky Atkinson

http://www.rocketmansports.net

https://www.winningcappers.net

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament odds and power ratings

Author: Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports
Published: 2022-03-01

ATLANTIC SUN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Here are my Atlantic Sun Conference power ratings as of Tuesday 3-1-22! (Odds to win the conference tournament beside each team)

Jacksonville 76.16 (+950)

Florida Gulf Coast 73.82 (+1600)

Jacksonville State 71.65 (+165)

Liberty 71.52 (+115)

Kennesaw State 67.57 (+2700)

North Florida 67.47 (+12000)

Eastern Kentucky 64.92 (+6500)

Lipscomb 64.78 (+5000)

Bellarmine 63.88 (+1200)

Stetson 62.7 (+12000)

Central Arkansas 60.38 (+13000)

North Alabama 56.84 (+25000)

Liberty is the favorite to win the conference tournament with Jacksonville State right behind them and Jacksonville 3rd best but sitting pretty far back in the odds to win. It seems like Liberty is always competing for this title and a chance to go to the big dance and they should be there in the end again this year. A long shot for me in this conference would be Eastern Kentucky. My power ratings have Jacksonville finishing the strongest in this conference and they are +950 to win it so might be worth a couple bucks. North Alabama is the only team here I feel doesn’t have a chance at all to win it. Could be a surprise coming out of this conference. We shall see.

Thanks and good luck,

Rocky Atkinson

http://www.rocketmansports.net

https://www.winningcappers.net

Patriot League Conference tournament odds and power ratings

Author: Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports
Published: 2022-03-01

PATRIOT LEAGUE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Here are my Patriot League Conference power ratings as of Tuesday 3-1-22! (Odds to win the conference tournament beside each team)

Colgate 78.95 (-210)

Lehigh 70.10 (+2700)

Navy 69.82 (+600)

Boston U. 69.00 (+550)

Loyola Maryland 67.21 (+1800)

Army 66.68 (+3100)

American 65.24 (+50000)

Bucknell 63.43 (+50000)

Lafayette 62.8 (+6000)

Holy Cross 61.1 (+50000)

Colgate is the favorite to win the conference tournament with Boston University and Navy coming behind them in 2nd and 3rd. Colgate should get the job done here but don’t count out Navy or Boston U. A long shot for me in this conference would be Lehigh. American and Holy Cross have ZERO chance to win this while Bucknell usually is competing for the title here but they are at equal odds with the basement teams, American and Holy Cross so not much love given to them this year.

Thanks and good luck,

Rocky Atkinson

http://www.rocketmansports.net

https://www.winningcappers.net

Horizon League Conference Tournament odds to win and Rocketman power ratings

Author: Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports
Published: 2022-03-01

HORIZON CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Here are my Horizon Conference power ratings as of Tuesday 3-1-22! (Odds to win the conference tournament beside each team)

Northern Kentucky 73.53 (+400)

IPFW 72.05 (+500)

Wright State 71.98 (+390)

Detroit Mercy 70.8 (+1200)

Cleveland State 70.35 (+230)

Oakland 69.65 (+650)

Youngstown State 66.31 (+2300)

Illinois Chicago 63.8 (+3200)

Wisconsin Green Bay 62.25 (+11000)

Robert Morris 60.18 (+18000)

Wisconsin Milwaukee 59.41 (+31000)

IUPUI 48.55 (+50000)

Cleveland State is the favorite to win the conference tournament with Wright State right on their heels. Northern Kentucky and IPFW are right behind them with the 3rd and 4th favorite odds. Oakland has been strong a times during the season but is very unpredictable. A long shot for me in this conference would be Youngstown State. Robert Morris and IUPUI have ZERO chance to win this.

Thanks and good luck,

Rocky Atkinson

http://www.rocketmansports.net

https://www.winningcappers.net

Northeast Conference Tournament odds and power ratings

Author: Rocky Atkinson from Rocketman Sports
Published: 2022-02-28

NORTHEAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT

Here are my Northeast Conference power ratings as of Monday 2-28-22! (Odds to win the conference tournament beside each team)

Bryant 73.09 (+110)

Long Island 71.12 (+600)

Merrimack 69.78 (Ineligible to win)

Wagner 67.08 (+190)

Mount St Mary’s 66.84 (+950)

Sacred Heart 64.88 (+3900)

Saint Francis PA 63.24 (+4200)

Saint Francis NY 61.85 (+6500)

Fairleigh Dickinson 60.13 (+11000)

Central Connecticut State 52.65 (+50000)

Bryant is the favorite to win the conference tournament with Wagner right on their heels. Merrimack is ineligle to win the tournament due to this being their first year in Division 1. Mount Saint Mary’s is the defending Conference champion.

Thanks and good luck,

Rocky Atkinson

http://www.rocketmansports.net

https://www.winningcappers.net

Jeff's Grade 2 Remsen Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-02-24

Jeff's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Preview (Race 11)

Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas

Saturday, February 26th, 2022 (6:22 pm et)

#1 Kavod (12/1), trained by Chris Hartman & ridden by Francisco Arrieta

Has finished first or second (11-3-1-0) in four of 11 career starts, earning $293,000. Was a distant fourth (beaten 5 1/2 lengths) in the Southwest Stakes last month. The class rating and speed figures don't jump off the page. The inside post is not ideal either, although Kavod won from post #1 in a minor stakes sprint race at Oaklawn Park last December. At the end of the day, this distance seems too long for this horse. Toss!

#2 Newgrange (9/5), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by John Velazquez

A lock to be post time chalk. Has done nothing wrong. Three races, three wins, with earnings of $552,000. Won the Southwest Stakes here at Oaklawn by 1 1/4 lengths over Barber Road. Improving speed figures (Equibase) in three straight. From an 89 maiden score to a 98 last time out. Fastest horse in field with a 93 Equibase figure. Newgrange wants to go long. This trainer/jockey combo win 51% together for ROI of +50%. Won't be eligible for Kentucky Derby Points, but is defiantly The One to Beat and MY TOP CHOICE!

#3 Cairama (15/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Geovanni Franco

Has finished in the money two out of four (4-1-0-1) with career earnings of $71,125. This would be a huge shocker and seems in over his head. Slow early pace, slow middle pace, slow late pace. Has never raced at Oaklawn Park. Toss!

#4 Un Ojo (12/1), trained by Ricky Courville & ridden by Ramon Vazquez

Has finished first or second (5-1-2-0) in three of five starts with career earnings of $176,321. Was a distant second in a stakes race at Aqueduct earlier this month. The speed figure came back slow (74). Un Ojo ranks 11/11 in Class and 11/11 in speed and now steps up in class. Toss!

#5 Texas Red Hot (12/1), trained by Randy Morse & ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr.

This Colt by Texas Red has finished first or second (5-2-1-0) in three of five starts with career earnings of $133,670. Finished 10th (14 1/2 lengths behind Smile Happy) in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup. Has a bullet work (1/53) going 5f in 1.00.2 on Feb. 19th at OP. I just don't see this horse being anywhere close based on his forum, class, and speed figures. This is another horse you can completely Toss!

#6 Stellar Tap (10/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Cristian Torres

This Tapit bred Colt has finished in-the-money two of four starts with career earnings of $71,292. Has not won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga last August. Finished third in his most recent start, an allowance race at Fair Grounds last month. I respect the trainer and maybe he knows something. Stellar Tap does have improving speed figures in his past three races and is bred to go long. Has never raced at Oaklawn Park. Running off Lasix is a bit of a concern. Use underneath!

#7 Ben Diesel (6/1), trained by Dallas Stewart & ridden by Jon Court

Has finished in the money (4-1-0-1) two of four starts with career earnings of $164,110. Finished third (beaten 2 3/4 lengths) behind winner Newgrange in the Southwest Stakes. Has enough early speed to gain position into the first turn. Uneven work tap is a concern though. I would not bet this horse to win at anything less than 20/1. Toss!

#8 Chasing Time (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione

Not This Time is proving to be a very good sire. His son (Epicenter) won the Remsen Stakes last week. Chasing Time has finished first or second (5-2-2-0) in four of five starts with career earnings of $179,460. Two starts at Oaklawn Park have produced a win and second. I like this horse, but might get bet down unjustly due to the Myracehorse ownership group. I do not own any shares of Chasing Time. This is a major step up in class and will need to gain 8-10 points from his last speed figure. Is more than capable of doing just that. Extra boost if the track comes up wet. Win Contender!

#9 Barber Road (9/2), trained by Alexander Ortiz & ridden by Reylu Gutierez

Has finished first or second in (6-2-3-0) in five of six career starts with earnings of $300,720. Strong contender after finishing second to Newgrange (1 1/4 lengths) in the Southwest Stakes. Ranks 10/11 in class rating. Very tough to win this type of race. Fast works and likes Oaklawn are two positives. Getting his regular jockey back could help, although Barber Road has finished second in three straight races. The class and speed figures don't excite me, but this horse could improve especially on a wet track. Use Underneath!

#10 Ethereal Road (12/1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas & ridden by Luis Contreras

Has one win and one third in four career starts, earning $63,545. This Colt by Quality Road enters off a MSW win at Oaklawn Park last month, earning a career best 88 Equibase speed figure. Has never raced from post #10 or higher. Benefited from a ground-saving trip from post #2 last time out. This is a major step up in class and will run off Lasix for the first time. Toss!

#11 Dash Attack (8/1), trained by Kenneth McPeek & ridden by David Cohen

The local horse might attract some attention. Has two wins and one fifth place finish in three career starts ($227,940). That clunker was the Southwest Stakes, finishing a distance fifth by 7 3/4 lengths. No horse has been working better and would certainly benefit if the track comes up wet. Respect the trainer that wins 22% in stakes races. Has never run from an outside post, but does own the highest class rating (95) and second-highest speed figure (90). Use Underneath!

Jeff's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Selection

Play #2 Newgrange (9/5) to win & place!

#8 Not This Time (8/1) (Place)

#6 Stellar Tap (10/1) Show

#11 Dash Attack (8/1) (fourth)

Twitter: @jhsportsline

Jeff's Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-02-16

Risen Star Stakes (Grade 2) Fair Grounds--- Race 13

#1 Pappacap (4/1), trained by Mark Casse & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione

This 3-year old Colt by Gun Runner has finished in-the-money five of six (6-2-2-1) tries, earning $596,000. Earned a career best Equibase speed figure of 96 when finishing 3rd in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds last month. The local works have been off the charts spectacular. Improving speed figures in four straight races. Always nice to see. Trainer Mark Casse wins 15% in the second race after a 2-6 month layoff. I love the positive jockey switch from Bravo to Gaffalione. Has tactical speed where the rail post won't matter much. Win Contender!

#2 Russian Tank (50/1), trained by Gennadi Dorochenko & ridden by Jose Vega

This horse has no chance and could get scratched. Won a maiden special weight race on turf last November. Has been first or second in two of eight career starts (8-1-1-0) with earnings of $39,160. Has never raced at today's distance on a dirt track. Ranks 10/10 in early pace, 10/10 in middle pace, 10/10 in late pace. Declining speed figures in three straight races. Trainer wins 12% sprint to route. Toss!

#3 Trafalgar (10/1), trained by Albert Stall & ridden by Colby Hernandez

Finished fourth by 4 1/2 lengths in the Lecomte Stakes at FG last month. In four career starts, Trafalgar has two wins and one second with earnings of $125,060. Blinkers go on today. Albert Stall wins 50% with first time blinkers. Fast works in the morning. I don't believe this horse has enough speed and class to win this type of race. Toss!

#4 Tawny Port (12/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux

Has done nothing wrong, winning both career starts (synthetic surface) for $75,600. This is a major step up in class for the son of Pioneerof the Nile. Earned a career best 90 Equibase speed figure and would need to improve another 10 points to win this race. The connections suggest it could happen. Trainer Brad Cox wins 29% off 1-2 month layoff and 30% going 1 1/8 mile of the dirt. Asking a lot to handle this talented field in his initial try on dirt. Will be a nice price. Long Shot!

#5 Epicenter (4/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Joel Rosario)

Has finished first or second in three of four career starts (4-2-1-0) with earnings of $170,639. Finished 2nd by a head in the Grade 2 Lecomte Stakes last month. Two starts at Fair Grounds produced a win and second. Should be on or near the lead with a clean start. Owns the fastest early pace (102.9) speed figure in the field. Owns the second fastest middle pace (91.6). The works have jumped off the page in the morning. Gate to wire? Win Contender!

#6 Pioneer of Medina (10/1), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by Luis Saez

Has won two straight and takes a major step up in class today. Has never been out of the money if four career starts (4-2-1-1) with earnings of $65,350. These connections must be respected. This trainer/jockey combo wins 29% together from a massive sample size. Running off lasix is a major concern though. Tough to back with slower speed figures than main rivals. Use Underneath!

#7 Zandon (9/2), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Jose Ortiz

Chad Brown opted for this spot over Gulfstream's Holy Bull Stakes. Has one win and one second in two starts with career earnings of $99,500. Lost by a nose to Mo Donegal, as the betting favorite in the Grade 2 Remsen. This 3-year old Colt by Upstart has produced identical Equibase speed figures of 93. Mo Donegal came back to finish 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 5th. I prefer others. Use Underneath!

#8 Smile Happy (7/2), trained by Keeneth McPeek & ridden by Corey Lanerie

Has two wins from two career starts earning $248,810 so far. His sire is Run Happy. Have you heard of him? Kidding of course. Owns the fastest Equibase speed figure (98) in the field. Owns the fastest late pace speed figure (111.5) and should be rolling late with a clean trip. The two horses Smile Happy defeated in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club stakes (Classic Causeway & White Abarrio) both came back to win a stakes race. The ultimate goal is the Kentucky Derby, so taking a stand against him in this spot seems like a worthwhile risk, as he may not be cranked up to 100% this early. The One to Beat!

#9 Bodock (10/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Marcelino Pedroza Jr.

Two wins from two starts for career earnings of $52,00. The last victory was here at FG on an off track, earning a career-best 87 speed figure. From a class and speed rating, this horse looks to be up against it. There are faster, proven, and more classier horses in this field. Ranks 10/10 in Class and 9/10 in speed rating. Brad Cox wins 34% sprint to route. Never raced beyond 6 furlongs. Toss!

#10 Slow Down Andy (9/2), trained by Doug O'Neill & ridden by Mario Gutierrez

Has never finished out of the money in three career starts (3-2-1-0), with earnings of $249,850. Won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, earning a career-best 95 Equibase speed figure back in December. This is another step up in class for the 3-year old son by Nyquist. The level of competition has been sub-par to say the least. Doug O'Neill is a great trainer, but it's hard to ignore his 7% win percentage in all stakes races. The outside post and his sustained running style are of major concern. Toss!

Jeff's Grade 2 Risen Star Selection (5:58 pm ET)

Play #5 Epicenter (4/1) Across-the-Board!

#7 Zadon (9/2) (Place)

#1 Paapacap (4/1) (Show)

#8 Smile Happy (7/2) (Fourth)

Twitter:@jhsportsline