Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-09-10

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend.

UNC 20, CLT 3

North Carolina had a better matchup this week but the offense managed only 303 total yards against a Charlotte defense that gave up 586 yards in its opener against Appalachian St. The Tar Heels defense was the difference as they held the 49ers to 271 total yards including 21 yards rushing on 29 carries (0.7 ypc). Charlotte did throw for 250 yards but tossed two interceptions on their final two drives including one at the North Carolina nine-yard line. The 49ers were 0-3 in the redzone.

ARMY 24, KSU 21

Kansas St. jumped out to a 13-0 lead but the Black Knights went 75 yards in 2:25 and scored a touchdown as time expired before halftime. They then took the lead late in the third quarter but the Wildcats got it right back returning the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown but Army won the fourth quarter 10-0. The Wildcats were held to just 246 yards of offense as Army ran 39 more plays and held the ball for over 40 minutes. Kansas St. had the ball for a total of 3:01 in the second half.

HOU 35, RICE 9

After a scoreless first quarter, Rice struck first with a field goal but Houston grabbed the lead right before halftime on a 54-yard touchdown run. Following a Cougars pick six, Rice cut the lead back to two possessions early in the fourth quarter but Houston tacked on two more scores for the lopsided win. The new option offense for Rice could not get going as it rushed for 177 yards on 53 carries (3.3 ypc) while committing two turnovers. Houston was balanced with 204 yards rushing and 188 yards passing.

TOL 45, WKU 21

Toledo took a 14-0 lead as it recovered a fumble two plays into the game and scored three plays later and then returned an interception for a touchdown three plays after that. The Hilltoppers got it back to a touchdown deficit but the Rockets scored 24 unanswered points to go up 45-7. Toledo outgained Western Kentucky 508-333 and one-third of those Hilltoppers yards came late in garbage time. The Rockets rushed for 307 yards on 42 carries (7.3 ypc) and overall put up 8.1 yppl.

MEM 38, GAST 16

Georgia St. entered the second quarter with a 9-7 lead and it went back and forth with Memphis taking the lead at the half with a 54-yard field goal as time expired. The Tigers dominated the second half as they outscored the Panthers 21-0 while winning the yardage battle 204-86. Georgia St. did throw for 340 yards but rushed for only 49 yards on 27 carries (1.8 ypc) while committing nine penalties. It was a balanced attack for Memphis, rushing for 205 yards and passing for 196 yards.

TULN 33, USA 31

South Alabama jumped out to a 14-0 lead that included matching fumbles in-between the two touchdowns but Tulane then went on a 33-3 run that included scores on five straight possessions before South Alabama tacked on another pair of touchdowns for the backdoor. The Jaguars then failed to recover the onside kick to fall short. The Green Wave had the ball for nine more minutes but were outgained 421-406 as they were penalized 11 times for 87 yards and averaged just 5.6 yppl.

AUB 42, BALL 3

The score is indicative of the Auburn domination as the Tigers outgained Ball St. 495-68. The Cardinals got down to the Auburn 35-yard line in the first quarter which accounted for 53 of those total yards but fumbled and their only other drive into Auburn territory was because of a recovered fumble at the Tigers 23-yard line and that resulted in a 22-yard field goal. The Tigers were not perfect however as they had three short possessions resulting in punts and committed eight penalties.

VAN 44, VT 20

Virginia Tech came out of the gate strong as it jumped out to a 10-0 lead and took a 20-10 advantage into halftime and then it was all Vanderbilt. The Commodores put up 154 yards in the first half on just four possessions but racked up 309 yards in the second half in five possessions, scoring touchdowns in all five. The defense was just as dominant as Vanderbilt held the Hokies to 21 yards over the final 30 minutes and the Commodores more than doubled the overall yppl 8.6 to 4.1.

NEB 68, AKR 0

This was complete domination that matches the score as the Huskers outgained Akron 728-175 and the score could have been worse. Nebraska went 77 yards on its opening drive for a touchdown but in its next two possessions, it went 66 yards but fumbled at the Akron one yard line and then went 63 yards and turned it over on downs at the Akron one yard line. The Huskers scored on all of their remaining nine possessions, including eight touchdowns, not counting the two drives at the end of the half and the game.

USC 59, GASO 20

USC took the opening kickoff but fumbled it away three plays later and Georgia Southern took advantage and went 45 yards in three plays to take a 6-0 lead and then the Trojans took over with a 45-7 run. USC outgained the Eagles 755-377 and while they had only two more first downs 28-26, it was due to explosive plays as they averaged a whopping 12 yppl compared to just 4.8 for Georgia Southern. Five of the eight USC touchdown drives were fewer than two minutes and fewer than four plays.

MSU 42, BC 40 (2OT)

Michigan St. got its revenge but after taking a 7-0 lead, it did not lead again until 4:08 remaining in the game and after Boston College tied the game, the Spartans could not get past midfield which forced overtime. The Spartans matched the Eagles in the second overtime and the two-point conversion was the difference. Boston College outgained Spartans 457-380 but were forced to settle for a pair of short field goals while also fumbling the ball into the end zone on their opening drive.

UNLV 30, UCLA 23

UNLV dominated the first half as it opened up a 23-0 lead before UCLA tacked on a field goal right before halftime. The Bruins did make a second half run and cut the lead to 30-23 with 5:25 left and got down to the UNLV 24-yard line on their next drive but were intercepted. UCLA outgained the Rebels but lost the turnover battle 2-0 with the other one being a fumble on their own 44-yard line and that turned into a UNLV touchdown. Additionally, they had 14 penalties for 129 yards.

NMSU 21, TLSA 14

It was a back and forth game throughout with Tulsa taking its final lead on a 75-yard touchdown drive with 7:33 left but New Mexico St. took the kickoff and went 75 yards to retake the lead 21-14. The Golden Hurricane got it back down to the Aggies 41-yard line but threw an interception which pretty much sealed it. New Mexico St. was outgained 375-291 but the defense forced three turnovers including an interception in the second quarter at the six-yard line that halted a 73-yard Tulsa drive.

WSU 36, SDSU 13

Washington St. spotted the Aztecs a 7-0 lead and then ran off 29 consecutive points to pull away late in the third quarter. The Cougars outgained San Diego St. 396-215 but did average only 5.1 yppl although the defense did allow 3.6 yppl. San Diego St. was just 3-17 on third and fourth down and of its 14 possessions, nine resulted in fewer than 10 yards. Despite scoring 36 points, Washington St. had only two drives that were longer than 48 yards and one was a no huddle touchdown drive to end the half.

BYU 27, STAN 3

The BYU defense was the strength of the Cougars as they allowed 161 yards to Stanford including 19 yards rushing on 24 carries (0.8 ypc). 118 of those yards came in the final two possessions in garbage time and the Cardinal entered BYU territory only three times with the first coming by way of a BYU turnover on downs. The Cougars did have an issue on offense as they had 332 yards and averaged only 4.9 yppl while going 5-14 on third down and had to settle for four field goals of 36 yards or less.

HAW 37, SHSU 20

Hawaii forced a three and out to open the game and then marched 78 yards in eight plays to take a 7-0 lead and never relinquished that lead. The Warriors put up 417 yards of offense but did not execute very well as they went 6-17 on third down and were forced into three field goals while committing two turnovers including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. The defense allowed 126 yards in the first eight Bearkats possessions before Sam Houston went 90 yards for a score in garbage time.

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-09-09

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend.

TTU 62, KENT 14

Texas Tech dominated from the start as it scored touchdowns on its first three possessions before a three and out and then scored on its final four possessions of the first half. The Red Raiders outgained Kent St. 601-229 and had 27 first downs compared to only 10 for the Golden Flashes. Kent St. was held to 64 yards rushing on 34 carries (1.9 ypc) and it did not score until the fourth quarter during garbage time when it generated nearly half of its yardage as its longest drive in the first three quarters was 32 yards.

NCSU 35, UVA 31

Virginia had the edge for most of the game as it led or was tied for the first two and a half quarters as NC State did not get its first lead until 6:39 remaining in the third quarter and took the lead for good at the end of the quarter. After 66 points scored in the first three quarters, there was no scoring in the final quarter with Virginia having the best chances as it got to the NC State 8 and 12 yard line but turned it over on downs and threw an interception. The Cavaliers won the yardage battle 514-416.

PITT 45, CMU 17

Central Michigan had a tough task of coming off a west coast win and having to travel east and it showed early with the Chippewas falling behind 24-3. They got a huge interception before halftime and had to go just 13 yards for a touchdown and cut it to seven early in the third quarter before the Panthers scored the final three touchdowns. Pittsburgh outgained Central Michigan 464-217 despite possessing the ball for only 23 minutes as the Panthers went 6-9 on third down and allowed only 3.2 yppl.

SYR 27, CONN 20 (OT)

Syracuse got the win in overtime despite leading in regulation for a total of 47 seconds. The Orange scored with 48 seconds left on a 53-yard touchdown pass in what looked like the game winner but Connecticut went 52 yards on eight plays in just 47 seconds to force overtime where the Huskies allowed a touchdown and failed on their fourth down attempt. Syracuse won the yardage battle by 45 yards and while they threw for 416 yards, the Orange rushed for only 45 yards on 28 carries (1.6 ypc) and lost the turnover battle 2-0.

JVST 34, LIB 24

This was a very skewed final score as the Gamecocks pulled out the 10-point upset win but were outgained 534-390. The Flames turned the ball over on two of their first four possessions which led to 14 Gamecocks points and they also turned the ball over on downs twice. Their four scoring drives were 95, 69, 72 and 82 yards but the mistakes were too much to overcome. Jacksonville St. threw it only 12 times as it rushed for 338 yards on 50 carries (6.8 ypc) while committing only one penalty and did not turn the ball over.

MIZ 42, KU 31

The Border War was all Kansas early as it spotted Missouri an early touchdown before scoring the next three touchdowns to take a 21-6 lead after the first quarter. The Tigers then took over, outscoring Kansas 36-10 the rest of the way as it scored on six of its last eight possessions, five of those being 75 yards or more. Missouri won the first downs 28-13 while outgaining the Jayhawks 595-254 with the offense rushing for 261 yards on 47 carries (5.6 ypc) while holding Kansas to 31 yards rushing on 19 carries (1.6 ypc).

FRES 36, ORST 27

Oregon St. doubled up the Bulldogs with first downs 30-15 and outgained them 528-318 but had two costly interceptions, one at the Fresno St. 34-yard line before halftime and the other near the end of the game as the Beavers were trying to drive for the winning score but gave up the pick six. Their five scoring drives were all 68 yards or more as they were able to control the clock by close to 15 more minutes while running 37 more plays. Fresno St. rushed for 197 yards on just 28 carries (7.0 ypc).

CIN 34, BGSU 20

Cincinnati jumped ahead 21-0 with three long touchdown drives and Bowling Green had an 18-play drive just before halftime but had to settle for a field goal. The Bearcats got it back with their first drive of the second half and the Falcons got it down to the 11-yard line but failed on fourth down yet got it right back with a Cincinnati fumble, the first of two straight touchdowns but never got closer. Cincinnati outgained the Falcons by just 439-372 but ran 18 fewer plays and outgained them by 3.0 yppl.

COLO 31, DEL 7

Colorado took care of new FBS member Delaware as it jumped out to a 10-0 lead but the Blue Hens went 80 yards on seven plays and pulled within three points with 45 remaining before halftime. The Buffaloes responded with a 75-yard touchdown drive in just 36 seconds and then pitched a shutout in the second half. Colorado outgained Delaware by only two yards 398-396 but the Blue Hens turned it over twice inside the Colorado eight-yard line (fourth down and fumble) while turning it over two other times in Colorado territory.

TXST 43, UTSA 36

Texas St. jumped ahead early and did not trail in the first half as it led 19-14 at halftime but the Roadrunners took the lead two plays into the second half and it was back and forth throughout. The Bobcats took a 43-36 lead with 10 minutes remaining but UTSA was unable to cross midfield on its final three possessions, turning it over twice on downs nearing midfield. UTSA won the yardage battle 464-454 but went 3-12 on third down and 1-6 on fourth down including one at the Texas St. one-yard line.

NAVY 38, UAB 24

The first half was back and forth throughout as Navy scored first and UAB responded with the same score until they were deadlocked at 24-24 at the break. The Midshipmen defense stepped up in the second half as it pitched a shutout while forcing three turnovers although it only converted one of those into points. Navy outgained the Blazers 463-413 including 295-92 on the ground but it allowed UAB to throw for 321 yards which is a concern. Another concern was eight penalties for 97 yards.

UNT 33, WMU 30 (OT)

Western Michigan wanted to slow the game down and it accomplished that as it controlled the clock by over 13 more minutes by running the ball 57 times while throwing it just 14 times. North Texas won the yardage battle 406-303 as its five scoring drives in regulation were all 65 yards or longer while it generated only 45 total yards in its other five possessions, all resulting in punts. The Mean Green forced Bowling Green to kick a field goal in overtime and scored the winning touchdown in three plays, its only lead of the game.

WIS 42, MTSU 10

Middle Tennessee St. had a 3-0 lead all the way until just eight minutes left in the second quarter but Wisconsin scored on back-to-back possessions, the second starting after an interception but the Blue Raiders picked off a pass deep in Wisconsin territory and pulled to within four points at halftime after an 11-yard touchdown drive. Wisconsin dominated the second half as it scored a touchdown on its first four drives while outgaining the Blue Raiders 207-70 to make it a 436-241 advantage overall.

OHIO 17, WVU 10

This game was a lot closer than it should have been as the Bobcats outgained West Virginia 429-250 but the second half was a disaster as they were intercepted on their first three possessions while being forced to punt in its final two drives. The Mountaineers could not take advantage as they kicked a field goal on the opening second half drive but could muster only 50 total yards the rest of the half. Overall, the Bobcats had the ball for over 40 minutes while West Virginia was just 2-14 on third and fourth down.

RUTG 45, M-OH 17

Miami fell behind 24-7 but fought back by scoring the last touchdown of the first half and the first touchdown of the second half to pull within seven but Rutgers ran away with it by scoring the final three touchdowns of the game. The Scarlet Knights ran 32 more plays and had the ball for over 18 more minutes but outgained the RedHawks by only 53 yards and Miami had the yppl edge 8.2 to 5.5. The RedHawks were balanced but could get no momentum because of 10 penalties for 94 yard while Rutgers had just 2 for 14 yards.

ARK 56, ARST 14

The first ever meeting between Arkansas and Arkansas St. went as expected although the Red Wolves hung around for a little bit. They returned a kickoff for a touchdown to make it 14-7 and then scored early in the second quarter to pull within 14 points at 28-14 but the Razorbacks took over by scoring 28 unanswered points. It was dominant as Arkansas outgained the Red Wolves 630-285 and it was very balanced on offense with 309 yards passing and 329 yards rushing while averaging 10.9 yppl.

MOST 21, MRSH 20

Missouri St. won its first ever FBS game in just its second try as it jumped out to a 7-0 lead but the Thundering Herd scored the next 20 points. The Bears cut it to six points midway through the third quarter and then went 80 yards in nine plays and scored the go ahead touchdown with 2:12 remaining. Marshall then turned it over on downs as it managed only three yards and suffered a pretty embarrassing loss. Missouri St. won the yardage battle 474-274 but missed two field goals and were sacked six times.

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-09-08

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend.

LOU 28, JMU 14

Louisville outgained the Dukes by only one yard 264-263 and the Cardinals erased a 14-6 deficit by scoring the last three touchdowns of the game and by using only six offensive plays to do so. They scored on a 64-yard touchdown pass, a fumble recovery by the defense in the endzone and on a 78-yard touchdown run. James Madison controlled the clock by over 14 more minutes but were hurt by two turnovers, the other taking place in the redzone while committing 12 penalties for 95 yards.

MD 20, NIU 9

Maryland never trailed but led by just four points early in the fourth quarter before going on a 77-yard drive to score the final touchdown for the 11-point win. The Terrapins outpassed Northern Illinois 254-91 while gaining 13.4 yards per completion but they went just 4-12 on third down and were only 3-6 in the redzone. The Huskies rushed for 180 yards on 48 carries (3.8 ypc) which gave them the time of possession edge by just over seven minutes which kept the game close and low scoring.

PSU 34, FIU 0

Penn St. was ahead only 10-0 at halftime even though it went into Florida International territory on all six drives. In the four non-scoring drives, the Nittany Lions punted once while missing a field goal and turning it over on downs twice. Penn St. scored on all four possessions in the second half where it crossed midfield and overall outgained the Lions 409-290. The Lions were inside the Penn St. 40-yard line four times but threw an interception, turned it over on downs twice and ended the game at the 38-yard line.

LSU 23, LT 7

LSU led by only 10 points late into the third quarter despite going into Louisiana Tech territory in its first six possessions while gaining 296 total yards as it was forced to punt twice, missed a field goal, threw an interception and had to settle for a 23-yard field goal. The Tigers defense allowed 154 total yards with 74 of those coming in garbage time with the Bulldogs scoring their lone touchdown with 4:02 remaining. LSU had the ball for close to 37 minutes but averaged only 4.9 yppl.

ORE 69, OKST 3

Oregon scored on its second play from scrimmage and never looked back as the Ducks racked up 631 total yards while gaining 10.2 yppl. It was the epitome of balance with 312 yards rushing and 319 yards passing and they scored a touchdown on eight of their first 10 possessions with the exceptions being a missed field goal and a turnover on downs as Oregon punted only twice, their last two possessions. The defense was just as impressive as the Cowboys managed only 211 yard and crossed midfield just two times.

TEX 38, SJSU 7

Texas managed only 14 total yards in its first two drives resulting in two punts but the Longhorns scored touchdowns on their next four possessions, all touchdown passes from Arch Manning. Texas outgained the Spartans 472-273 while nearly doubling them up in yppl 7.3-3.8 but the offense still struggled on third down, going only 2-12. San Jose St. could have been in the game if not for four turnovers, three on consecutive possessions that led to 21 points with Texas needing just 71 yards on those scores.

CLEM 27, TROY 16

Clemson came out slow as it fell behind 16-0 midway through the second quarter and the Tigers could only manage a field goal before halftime. It was a different story in the second half as the Tigers went 75 yards to score a touchdown to open the second half and then the defense took over with a pair of interceptions and a stop on fourth down on three straight Troy possessions that led to 17 points. Still, Clemson only outgained the Trojans 316-300 and Troy was hurt by committing 10 penalties for 97 yards.

ILL 45, DUKE 19

Illinois broke open a close game as it led by one point at halftime but outscored Duke 31-6 in the second half. The Illini took the opening kickoff after halftime and went 75 yards for a touchdown and then forced three turnovers in the next four Duke possessions and turned those into 21 points. The Blue Devils actually outgained Illinois 439-419 despite running 10 fewer plays and having the ball over 12 minutes less but four turnovers and a turnover on downs wasted 180 of those offensive yards.

MSST 24, ASU 20

The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and then the Sun Devils flipped the switch on both sides. Arizona St. was forced to punt on its first four possessions then threw an interception and turned it over on downs before ending the first half with a field goal before running off 17 straight points to open the second half, gaining 228 yards on four possessions. Mississippi St. managed only 76 yards on five possessions after its third score but then went 77 yards in five plays to score the game winner with 30 seconds left.

USF 18, FLA 16

South Florida pulled off a second straight upset against a top 25 team as it kicked the game winning field goal as time expired. It was an ugly game as points were at a premium as the defenses forced seven field goal attempts total as only two touchdowns were scored, one of those coming on a 66-yard touchdown pass. Three Florida field goal drives tallied 202 yards while three South Florida field goal drives used 210 yards as the teams combined to go 10-28 on third down while committing 20 total penalties.

OU 24, MICH 13

Oklahoma jumped out to a 14-0 lead at halftime but Michigan pulled to within seven points on the first play from scrimmage in the second half on a 75-yard touchdown run. The Sooners then went three and out but forced a Wolverines three and out and then took their next possession 51 yards in only five plays to go back up by 14 and held on. Take that big Michigan play away and it gained only 213 total yards in their other 55 plays (3.87 yppl) and it went just 3-14 on third down.

ISU 16, IOWA 13

Defense ruled in Ames as Iowa and Iowa St. combined for 452 yards while totaling 14 drives that were seven plays or fewer. It was a 6-3 Cyclones lead late in the second quarter when they forced an interception and had to go only 18 yards to take a 13-3 lead but the Hawkeyes went 85 yards to pull back within three on a touchdown with 27 seconds left before the half. The second half produced only six points as each team had the ball only three times apiece as time of possession was coveted.

BAY 48, SMU 45 (2OT)

This was one of the best early games as Baylor and SMU closed the third quarter tied at 24-24 when the Mustangs took a touchdown lead early in the fourth quarter then forced a fumble two plays later and scored again to go up by 14 points. Baylor then went 72 yards to cut it back to a touchdown, forced a punt and then went 82 yards for the tying score with 34 seconds left and then won in double overtime as the Mustangs missed the tying field goal. Baylor outgained SMU 601-458 but that was on 28 more plays.

TA&M 44, USU 22

Texas A&M jumped ahead 7-0 on its second possession but Utah St. took the ensuing kickoff and went 75 yards in nine plays to pull within one after missing the conversion try but Utah St. then ran off the next 23 points to take a 24-point lead at halftime and it was ball game after that. Texas A&M dominated as it outgained Utah St. 554-250 while controlling the line of scrimmage by winning the rushing battle 235-78. Utah St. was in too many third and long, going just 2-14 no thanks to 11 penalties for 72 yards.

MISS 30, UK 23

Kentucky used a pair of Rebels turnovers in the first quarter to jump ahead 10-0, only needing 48 yards of offense to score twice before Mississippi went on a 20-3 run, scoring on four of five possessions following those two interceptions in a span of four plays. The Wildcats tied it back up but the Rebels put the game away with a pair of long drives to go up 10. Mississippi outgained Kentucky 455-359 but those two turnovers along with 86 penalty yards slowed down the potential of the offense.

ALA 73, ULM 0

Alabama shook off its lethargic effort against Florida St. as it showed no mercy, outgaining UL Monroe 583-148 while scoring on every possession, including touchdowns in 10 of 11 drives. It was domination at every level as the Crimson Tide threw for 371 yards while rushing for 5.9 ypc, they won the turnover battle 3-0 and time of possession by nine minutes while going 9-12 on third down, converting both fourth down opportunities. The Warhawks were expectedly outclassed but got a good pay day at least.

IU 56, KENN 9

Indiana came out slow against Old Dominion last week and it was not a great overall effort but the Hoosiers made up for it here as they rolled over Kennesaw St. as they won the yardage battle 593-271 and had 28 first downs while allowing just 10. Indiana was efficient through the air, going 21-28 for 280 yards (10.0 ypa) while rushing for 313 yards on 39 carries (8.0 ypc) while it faced only nine third downs, converting five of those. Kennesaw St. ran only 53 plays and was just 2-13 on third down.

Author: John Ryan
Published: 2025-08-19

This is what you get for just a few dollars per day by gettig the all-access subscription package or any single-sport subscroiption. Few, if any, put the time and effort into providing the best and most informative research for their clients than I do and that is stated humbly.  I am riding a 17-6 win streak with these 10-UNIT MAX Bets and four of these have been underdogs greater than +150 in MLB, which are aptly named 10-UNIT Underdog Game of the Month. 
 

Mariners vs Phillies
August 17, 2025 6:45 PM EST
10-Unit bet on the Phillies priced as a -110 favorite and is valid anywhere between a 125 underdog and -125 favorite.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 38-32 record averaging a 101 wager resulting in a decent 12% ROI and a $12,860 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $645 profit for the casual fan betting just $50 per game on only 70 bets. The required criteria are:

ü  Bet on home teams priced between a -125 favorite and 125 underdog.

ü  That team has batter under 0.250 spanning their previous 20 games.

ü  They are starting a pitcher that has allowed 5 or more runs in each of his last two starts.

If our team has a winning record has compiled as highly profitable 26-13 mark good for 67% winning bets since 2016 that have averaged a -105 favorite resulting in a 34% ROI and a $16,490 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $825 profit for the $50 per game bettor.

Tonight at Citizens Bank Park (6:45 PM ET), the Philadelphia Phillies host the Seattle Mariners in the opener of a three-game interleague series. With playoff implications on the line, the Phillies chasing the NL East crown, and the Mariners fighting for an AL Wild Card spot, all eyes are on Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez (8-6, 3.12 ERA) to deliver a shutdown performance against a Mariners lineup that's struggled against southpaws this season. Suarez has hit a rough patch, surrendering 5 runs to the Orioles on August 6 and 6 runs to the Reds in his last outing (August 12), inflating his second-half ERA to 6.06 over limited starts. But expect a fierce bounce-back: His season xERA sits at a stellar 3.10, suggesting bad luck with a .320 BABIP in those outings. With a 1.20 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 112.1 innings, Suarez's command remains elite, and his vast arsenal is primed to exploit Seattle's weaknesses. 

Enter Suarez's six-pitch mix, a nightmare for hitters: His sinker (90.1 mph, 28.4% usage) boasts elite arm-side run (15.8 inches horizontal break, +0.5 vs. avg) and a 73% active spin rate, inducing weak grounders (48.6% GB rate) against a Mariners team batting just .235 vs. lefties with a 25.4% K rate. The changeup (79.5 mph, 22.1% usage) is his whiff machine (36.8% whiff rate, 20.9% hard-hit rate), fading with +2.2 inches vertical break to freeze righty-heavy Seattle bats like Julio Rodriguez (.222 vs. LHP changeups). Add his cutter (86.1 mph, 18.3% usage) with deceptive glove-side bite (2.7 inches horizontal, +0.7 vs. avg) and a nasty curveball (73.6 mph, 15.1% usage) dropping -8.4 inches vertically (88% active spin) for backdoor strikes. 

Seattle's offense ranks 26th in MLB vs. left-handed pitching (.685 OPS), vulnerable to off-speed stuff (league-high 28% chase rate on changeups/curves). Suarez's four-seam (91.3 mph) and occasional slider (78.9 mph) provide velocity variance to keep them off-balance. Facing Mariners starter Bryan Woo (3.19 ERA), Suarez dominates this matchup, pounding the zone (65% strike rate) for 6+ innings of shutout ball. Prediction: Phillies 5-2. Suarez dazzles with 7 Ks, reclaiming ace form as Philly rolls.

 

 

Author: Glen McNeil
Published: 2025-08-03

Three-Point Shooting and Efficiency Favor Liberty Over Sun

The New York Liberty hold a clear edge from beyond the arc, ranking second in the league with a 35.0% team three-point shooting percentage, while the Connecticut Sun sit at the bottom with just 30.5%. The disparity is even greater in net rating, where New York is second overall at +7.2, compared to Connecticut’s league-worst -15.7. Back the Liberty to cover the spread in this matchup. Play on New York Liberty minus the points

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-07-14

As baseball heads into its critical second half, now’s the time to lock in the top MLB handicappers—systems delivering consistent profits. Here are three elite picks to know.

1. R&R?Totals – Premier Over/Unders

Highlights: 79?48 (62%) premium MLB picks; 1155?982 (54%) tracked run

Why It’s Hot: Unrivaled value on totals, perfect for cautious bankroll growth.

Access R&R’s next top over/under directly from WinningCappers.net

2. Pure?Lock – Quality?Over?Quantity Approach

Stats: 61–39 (61%) MLB season; 19–11 (63%) past 30 days

Edge: Only select elite picks—ideal for situational bettors.

Catch this week’s Pure?Lock MLB top play—sharp, selected, and smart

 

3. Marc?David – Total & Runline Authority

Performance: 17?7 (71%) totals; 28?15 (65%) runlines 

 

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-07-08

2025 Big 12 Conference Preview

Regular Season Win Totals and Big 12 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Kansas State: 8.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +550
Arizona State: 8.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ Big 12 Winner +550
Texas Tech: 8.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +650
Utah: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ Big 12 Winner +650
Baylor: 7.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ Big 12 Winner +750
BYU: 7.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +800
TCU: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ Big 12 Winner +900
Iowa State: 7.5 Over +105 Under -105 ~ Big 12 Winner +1,300
Kansas: 6.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ Big 12 Winner +1,800
Colorado: 6.5 Over +135 Under -160 ~ Big 12 Winner +2,200
Cincinnati: 6.5 Over +110 Under -130 ~ Big 12 Winner +3,500
Houston: 6.5 Over +120 Under -140 ~ Big 12 Winner +4,000
UCF: 5.5 Over -120 Under -140 ~ Big 12 Winner +5,000
Oklahoma State: 4.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +6,000
West Virginia: 5.5 Over +140 Under -170 ~ Big 12 Winner +7,000
Arizona: 4.5 Over -170 Under +140 ~ Big 12 Winner +7,000

 

Coaching Changes

Central Florida: Gus Malzahn Out ~ Scott Frost In
West Virginia: Neal Brown Out ~ Rich Rodriguez In

 

Kansas State Wildcats 9-4 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

Kansas St. concluded its third straight four-loss season, going a combined 28-12, its best three-season stretch since 2012-2014. The Wildcats opened last season 7-1 but lost three of their last four yet salvaged the season with a Rate Bowl win over Rutgers after erasing a 17-point deficit. Despite just 10 returning starters, they are the fifth most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference and come in as one of the favorites. The offense regressed last season but they bring back quarterback Avery Johnson who needs to be more accurate and his leading receiver Jayce Brown also returns. Despite losing running back DJ Giddens, Kansas St. has the No. 1 ranked running back unit in the conference. The defense remained steady and will be solid again as they bring back their top two tacklers and have the top ranked defensive line. Kansas St. closed the last two seasons with regular season losses against Iowa St. and it opens the season against the Cyclones in Dublin. Three nonconference games follow including Army and Arizona, the latter is being recorded as a nonconference game and in the Big 12, the Wildcats do have four road games, in addition to the neutral game, including at Baylor and Utah while missing Arizona St. altogether.

Arizona State Sun Devils 11-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 9

The Sun Devils were the surprise of the conference last season and one of the biggest in the country as after consecutive 3-9 seasons, they finished 10-2 including 7-2 in the Big 12, rolled over Iowa St. in the championship game and took Texas to double overtime before losing in the Peach Bowl in the first round of the CFP. It was their first double-digit win season since 2014 and they finished inside the AP Top Ten for the first time since 1996. Despite the loss of running back Cam Skattebo, there is not expected to be a drop off as Arizona St. returns 17 starters. The offense improved by over 15 ppg and 107 ypg behind Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt who was second in the conference in passing efficiency. They brought in two big transfers at running back and receiver to join potential All American receiver Jordyn Tyson behind a strong offensive line. The defense also improved considerably and they are loaded once again with nine starters back and there is no weakness at any level. A game at Mississippi St. is the only nonconference speedbump and the Sun Devils benefit from five conference home games. The issue is that of the four road games, three are at Baylor, Utah and Iowa St. with the fourth being a tricky one at Colorado.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 8-5 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 11

Make it four consecutive winning seasons for the Red Raiders, the longest streak since putting together 16 straight winning seasons that ended in 2010. They were taken to overtime in their opener last year against Abilene Christian and survived by a point but then lost to Washington St. so things were not looking good but won four straight before suffering back-to-back losses against Baylor and TCU before closing 3-1 prior to their 39-26 Liberty Bowl loss against Arkansas. Texas Tech comes in as the second most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference as they have 21 returning starters (11 of which are incoming transfers) and can contend if a couple upsets happen. The offense got back to the potent unit last season as it improved by over 10 ppg and 60 ypg behind quarterback Behren Morton who threw for 3,335 yards with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions and while he loses receiver Josh Kelly, the next two return along with transfer help. The defense took a big step back but this will be an improved unit with the return of five of the top six tacklers and transfers everywhere. The Red Raiders will easily go 3-0 in the nonconference but the Big 12 schedule is a beast with five road games, three at Utah, Arizona St. and Kansas St.

Utah Utes 5-7 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 7

Last season was a disaster for Utah as it opened 4-0 but then injuries piled up and the Utes lost their next seven games, four by 13 points combined, before closing the season with a win over Central Florida. It was the first losing season for Utah since 2013 and that final win avoided a 4-8 record which would have been their worst record since 1989. The Utes are expected to rise back to the top as they are healthy, experienced and have one of the most favorable schedules in the country. The offense has 10 returning starters, four being transfer starters including quarterback, running back and wide receiver coming in from New Mexico, following new offensive coordinator Jason Beck arriving from the Lobos. The Cam Rising experiment is done as Devon Daniels takes over from his First Team All MWC season at New Mexico where he combined for nearly 4,000 passing and rushing yards. A huge turnaround is expected. The defense was as good as it was from the previous three seasons and should be even better with tons of experience. Utah opens at UCLA and then has Cal Poly and Wyoming and the Utes have only four conference road games and while they face Texas Tech, Arizona St. and Kansas St., all of those are at home with the toughest road game at Baylor.

Baylor Bears 8-5 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

It was a tough start for Baylor last season as it opened 2-4 before winning its final six regular season games before falling 44-31 to LSU in the Texas Bowl. This comes after a brutal 2023 season for the Bears that went 3-9 with their two FBS wins by a combined four points so going back to the end of the 2022 season, that late season winning streak last year put an end to a 5-17 run and ultimately saved the job of head coach Dave Aranda who in 31-30 through his first five seasons and he might need a big campaign to stay around past 2025. Baylor is the third most experienced team in the conference and it starts with the offense that has 10 starters back led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson who threw for over 3,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions and he has each of his two top receivers and rushers back to go along with the second ranked offensive line in the Big 12. The defense was awful in 2023 but the Bears improved a good amount last season and will be even better as they are stacked at all three levels. Baylor opens with a pair of tough nonconference games, hosting Auburn and then travelling to SMU. The toughest road game in the Big 12 is at TCU as the Bears get Arizona St., Kansas St. and Utah all at home.

BYU Cougars 11-2 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 4

BYU came into the Big 12 Conference in 2023 and went through expected growing pains as it went 2-7 including losses in its final five games but it did not take long for a rebound as the Cougars opened last season 9-0, including 6-0 in the conference, and moved into the AP Top Ten but suffered consecutive losses against Kansas and Arizona St. by a combined nine points but then rolled Houston in the season finale to finish 7-2 took out Colorado in the Alamo Bowl 36-14. They are not as experienced this season and have only eight total starters back but are still good enough to make some noise behind a favorable schedule. The offense got back to the offense of 2022 but took a hit in the offseason with quarterback Jake Retzlaff deciding to transfer following breaking the BYU Honor Code and now the job is up for grabs. There are not many pieces in place at the other skill positions with the offensive line also doing some rebuilding. The defense had it best year since 2020 and will be good again but expect some regression with only four returning starters. A 6-0 start is very possible with a game at Colorado being the tough one but then comes the onslaught with Utah, Iowa St., Texas Tech and TCU right after, the middle two on the road.

TCU Horned Frogs 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8

After its CFP run in 2022, TCU regressed as expected with a 5-7 record in 2023 but the Horned Frogs bounced back last year by going 9-4 including wins in six of its last seven games, a three-point loss at Baylor being the lone setback. It has been a roller coaster over the last decade in Fort Worth but head coach Sonny Dykes has the program going in the right direction after a slide at the end of the Gary Patterson era. It will likely take something special for TCU to make a huge run as the schedule is the biggest obstacle with it being ranked as the toughest in the conference. The offense is led by quarterback Josh Hoover who threw for a school record 3,949 yards last season to go along with 27 touchdowns and he should be just as electric as long as they can fill the void from losing Jack Bech. The run game was abysmal last season as they averaged only 3.7 ypc and lost their top two rushers so someone has to step up behind an offensive line returning three starters. The defense has improved each of the last four years as it allowed the fewest points and yards since 2020 and get eight starters back. North Carolina and SMU highlight the nonconference and they face five of the top six teams ahead of them in the Big 12, three on the road.

Iowa State Cyclones 11-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

Iowa St. is a team that is lost in the shuffle as far as odds go and a big reason could be it has never won a Big 12 Championship. Or a Big 8. Or a Big 7. Or a Big 6. The Cyclones are coming off an 11-3 season, the first double-digit winning season in program history and the pieces are in place to make another deep run like last season where they lost in the championship game to Arizona St. 45-19. They have had only one losing conference record since 2017 but getting over the hump has been impossible, literally, since it has never happened. There is no reason to count them out despite the odds. The offense has seven starters back with quarterback Rocco Becht now in his third season as the starter and while he loses a pair of 1,100-yard receivers, he does have the No. 1 ranked running back and No. 2 ranked offensive line units in the conference. The defense has been consistent as it has allowed between 20.3 and 25.9 ppg every year since 2017. Six starters are back and while the top two tacklers are gone, we should see the consistency continue. Iowa St. hosts Iowa in the Cy-Hawk with that being the toughest nonconference game and in the Big 12, Kansas St., BYU, Arizona St. and TCU are the only tough games, with just TCU being on the road.

Kansas Jayhawks 5-7 ~ 4-5 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

The Jayhawks put together that improbable 2023 season where they went 9-4, its first winning season since 2008 and the nine wins are only the fourth time in school history they have hit that mark. At 5-4, it was just their second winning conference record and last year was supposed to be an encore but Kansas lost it first five FBS games, four by 17 points combined, and was unable to get back to a bowl game for a third consecutive season. There is not a ton of experience (No. 77 in the country) and only five starters are back on each side of the ball but the Jayhawks are in position to get back to a bowl game. It all starts with quarterback Jalon Daniels who missed 10 games during that 2023 season and played all 12 games last year but was not efficient and every receiver that caught a pass is gone so there needs to be instant chemistry. Leading rusher Devin Neal is also gone as are three of the five offensive linemen. The defense has not been great the last two seasons but still a major improvement as they allowed under 400 ypg both seasons, the first time since 2009, but they lose their top six tacklers. A roadtrip to Missouri highlights the nonconference and in the Big 12, they only have to face four of the top eight, two at home and two on the road.

Colorado Buffaloes 9-4 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 8

It was a rough first year for head coach Deion Sanders as Colorado closed 1-8 and then got blown out by Nebraska in its first FBS game last season but the Buffaloes closed 8-2 over their final 10 regular season games and while the 36-14 loss in the Alamo Bowl was not an ideal ending to the season, it was still promising. 2025 can be considered a rebuild or a reload or a mix of both as there is not a lot of experience with only 11 starters back and replacing Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter is impossible. The offense had been consistent under Sanders in the two years with his kid at quarterback yet had one of the worst rushing offenses but that will change this year as they want more balance. They need it. They brought in quarterback Kaidon Salter from Liberty who threw for 5,850 yards while running for over 2,000 yards. The top four receivers are gone and the horrible offensive line is being overhauled by the transfer portal. The defense improved by 11.7 ppg and 101 ypg from 2023 and there is a lot more experience on that side to let the offense catch up. All three nonconference games are at home with Georgia Tech being the tough one and they have to face six of the top eight in the Big 12, missing Texas Tech and Baylor.

Cincinnati Bearcats 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The hottest coaching seat in the Big 12 Conference belongs to Scott Satterfield but in his defense, the Bearcats have not been very experienced and moving from the AAC to the Big 12 is a tall order, ask Houston and Central Florida, so he could very well be safe for another season. But improvements have to come following an 8-16 record the last two seasons and this could be the season they get back to a bowl game. They have the most experienced team since the shift and the offense has a chance to be really good. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby returns after completing 64 percent of his passes, fourth best in the conference, while throwing for 2,813 touchdowns and 18 touchdowns with seven interceptions. Of his top five receivers, only tight end Joe Royer returns so there could be some chemistry issues early. Leading rusher Corey Kiner is gone but Wisconsin leading rusher Tawee Walker transferred in to run behind an above average offensive line. The defense improved from 2023 and should be even better with eight starters back with the strength being the front seven. They open in Kansas City against Nebraska so a 3-0 start is possible. They get five conference home games and three of those are against the top eight teams.

Houston Cougars 4-8 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 7

Houston opened 1-4 in year one with head coach Willie Fritz including back-to-back shutout losses to Cincinnato and Iowa St. but the Cougars rallied to win three of four only to get blown out in their final three games to complete a second consecutive 4-8 season. This followed a 20-7 two-season run but that was in the AAC so the transition has not been an easy one. Houston was very inexperienced last season but is much more veteran now to go along with greater depth. Houston used Donovan Smith and Zeon Chriss at quarterback and both were identically bad as each threw for just over 800 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman will take over and will welcome the new surroundings after being benched last season. They also used a running back by committee with all three leading rushers back but still averaged only 3.8 ypc so the offensive line has to show up with four likely new starters. The defense was pretty solid, finishing No. 25 overall and No. 40 in scoring and bring in a slew of transfers along with a new coordinator. Two nonconference games are on the road but they are at Rice and Oregon St. The Big 12 schedule is not bad as they miss Kansas St., Iowa St. and Utah and BYU.

UCF Knights 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

The third of the three AAC transplants are the lone one to have made a bowl game in the first two years in the Big 12 as Central Florida made it to the Gasparilla Bowl in 2023 where it lost to Georgia Tech 30-17. The Knights fell to 4-8 last season as they started 3-0 but could not overcome a five-game losing streak right after that and they closed 1-7. It could be another rough season in the first under new head coach Scott Frost who is in his second stint in Orlando after coaching here in 2016 and 2017. Central Florida is the least experienced team in the conference and has only 10 total starters back including four on offense and only one that has started here. That comes from the offensive line which will be a work in progress that will hurt the normally potent running game to go along with the loss of RJ Harvey who rushed for 1,577 yards. Quarterback transfers Tayven Jackson and Cam Fancher will battle it out and will not have a single receiver that caught a pass last season. The top five tacklers are gone but they did a solid job in the transfer portal. Three home games make up the nonconference including North Carolina and the Knights have to play five Big 12 road games with four of those against teams in the top six.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 3-9 ~ 0-9 Big 12 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Losing at Oklahoma St. rarely happens. Actually, almost never as the 3-9 record last season was the first since 2005 and what made it more surprising was the fact Oklahoma St. came into the season as the most experienced team in the country and was a Big 12 favorite but bottomed out with nine straight losses following a 3-0 start. Head coach Mike Gundy gets a pass as he has 18 winning seasons sandwiched inside those two losing campaigns and while it could be another tough season, it should not be as bad. The offense is basically starting over at the skill positions. The leading quarterback contender is Zane Flores who has not taken a snap in two years because of a redshirt and an injury and there is basically zero experience behind him. The top three receivers who accounted for over 2,000 yards are gone as it running back Ollie Gordon who was an All American candidate but disappointed with just 880 yards. The defense was atrocious as the Cowboys allowed 500.6 ypg which was ahead of only Kent St. and help in on the way from the transfer portal but it is not enough. A trip to Oregon is a sure loss in the nonconference and it is too bad they cannot take advantage of an easy Big 12 schedule with Texas Tech being the only tough road game.

West Virginia Mountaineers 6-7 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

It was not an awful six years under head coach Neal Brown, it just was not good enough. He finished with a 37-35 record and in comparison, prior to him, Dana Holgorsen was 44-32 in his final six seasons so it was not that much worse. However, four losing seasons under Brown were the same amount from 1995-2018, a span of 24 seasons so it was probably time. West Virginia hired Rich Rodriguez who coached here from 2001-2007 and only had one losing season which was his first while stringing together three straight 11-win campaigns. It is definitely rebuilding time. Nicco Marchiol is the likely starter at quarterback and he was decent in a pair of starts but the top three receivers are gone and he will be behind an offensive line that made zero starts at West Virginia last season. The star of the offense could be running back Jahiem White who rushed for 845 yards on 5.7 ypc. The defense is in worse shape as while six returning starters are listed, only one was in Morgantown who accounted for just two starts so this is going to be interesting. The Backyard Brawl is at home this season to go along with a tricky road game at Ohio and in the Big 12, they have to face five of the top seven teams, avoiding only Kansas St. and Baylor.

Arizona Wildcats 4-8 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

It was five straight losing seasons for Arizona from 2018 to 2022, the longest streak since six straight from 2000-2005, but the Wildcats broke through with a 10-3 record in 2023 and head coach Jedd Fisch used that to move onto Washington which left Arizona scrambling and it settled on Brent Brennan who was put in a tough spot with not a ton to work with and playing in a new conference. It caught up late as the Wildcats closed 1-7 to complete a 4-8 season and things are not looking much better this season. The offense was inconsistent as quarterback Noah Fifita regressed after a sensational freshman year and that was with Tetairoa McMillan and his 1,319 yards and 84 catches still in the mix but he is off to the NFL so he needs another new favorite target. Their top rusher is also gone and only one offensive lineman is back that started here last season. The defense fell off as it allowed 10.7 ppg more than in 2023 but the top four tacklers are back including both safeties. The front seven is getting solid help from the transfer portal. Arizona opens with Hawaii and Weber St. at home before hosting Kansas St., which is being counted as a nonconference game and they have to face only four of the other top eight in the Big 12.

Author: Nick Parson
Published: 2025-05-05

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

DENVER vs. OKLAHOMA CITY

Game 1 – Thunder -9.5
Odds to win series – Thunder -700, Nuggets +500
Odds to win Western Conference – Thunder -210, Nuggets +1100
Odds to win NBA title – Thunder +130, Nuggets +3000

At first glance, this series looks like a mismatch. The Thunder are deep and talented, they have the presumptive MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they have young legs that are rested after a first-round sweep of the Grizzlies, and they are coming off a historic best-in-the-league 68-win regular season. The Nuggets counter with Nikola Jokic and a team that ended the regular season in so much angst that the head coach and general manager were both fired a week before the playoffs started. Can the Nuggets do to the Thunder what they did to the red-hot Clippers in the first round? OKC is a huge (-9.5) favorite in Game 1, and hasn’t played since they polished off Memphis on April 26 in a series that mercifully ended in four games. Denver gets all of one day off before TV mandates that they move on to Game 1 of the WC semifinals. For the Nuggets to make this a series, they must get decent production from Jamal Murray in addition to Jokic playing like the walking triple-double that he is. OKC will no doubt run multiple defenders at Murray, who can run hot and cold, and use their depth to try to wear down a Denver team whose weak bench will force starters to play big minutes. Denver’s best shot at an upset would normally come early in the series, but the Nuggets took seven games to take care of the Clippers in Round 1, and now face a quick turnaround against OKC, which can’t wait for the choke chains to be removed and get at it again.

GOLDEN STATE vs. MINNESOTA

Game 1 – Timberwolves -6.5
Odds to win series – Timberwolves -180, Warriors +155
Odds to win Western Conference – Timberwolves +425, Warriors +850
Odds to win NBA title – Timberwolves +1400, Warriors +2500

One young, hungry and athletic team down, one waiting in the wings. Golden State used its experience to good effect in taking care of No. 2 seed Houston in seven games in Round 1, refusing to let the Rockets’ double big lineup of Steven Adams and Alperin Sengun control the paint in the decisive game. Now come the Timberwolves, who are just as athletic and just as big as the Rockets. Can the Warriors do it again?  A big question is fatigue. Will the Warriors have enough gas in the tank after going seven grueling games against Houston? Golden State’s front line will be under intense pressure. The Timberwolves were able to dominate underneath against the Lakers, and GS uses a lot of small-ball lineups out of necessity. This series is dripping with storylines. Jimmy Butler back in Minnesota, the place where he made himself such a PITA a few seasons ago? Anthony Edwards, who helped send one legend (LeBron James) home, is itching for a chance to do the same thing to Steph Curry? Edwards and Draymond Green yapping at each other for two solid weeks? This is a great series in the making. Minnesota is an early 6.5-point favorite in Game 1.

Author: Nick Parsons
Published: 2025-05-02

INDIANA vs. CLEVELAND

Game 1 – Cavaliers -7.5
Odds to win series – Cavaliers -500, Pacers +375
Odds to win Eastern Conference – Cavaliers +160, Pacers +1800
Odds to win NBA title – Cavaliers +500, Pacers +5000

The NBA playoff business model has remained the same for decades – forget depth and depend of your stars tom play like stars. If they do, you’ll get to the next round. If not, well, at least you played the game the way it should be played. This series might be the exception, though. Cleveland and Indiana both have the requisite star power, to be sure, but they also both have depth to burn, and that’s a requirement for teams that like to push the pace even in the postseason, where pace is usually out the window and half-court execution becomes paramount. The Cavs used their depth to take control of the East at the start of the season and never let up. You can argue that Cleveland’s bench (Caris LeVert, De’Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro et al) would be able to get to the Play-In Tournament all by itself. The play of the reserves enabled Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen to play minimum minutes against overmatched Miami and be fresh for Round 2. Indiana, which goes up and down the court as fast as any team in the league, can’t match Cleveland’s depth and will rely a bit more on its starters. But Obi Toppin, Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell should be able to hold their own and give Tyrese Halliburton, Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam adequate rest. One sidelight that should get some attention is the head coaches. Both Cleveland’s Kenny Atkinson and Indiana’s Rick Carlisle are as good as it gets. Both have adjusted to the talent on hand and made adjustments. It will be interesting to see just how they game-plan and use their benches.

NEW YORK vs. BOSTON

Game 1 – Celtics -8.5
Odds to win series – Celtics -800,  Knicks +550
Odds to win Eastern Conference – Celtics -145, Knicks +1400
Odds to win NBA title – Celtics +190, Knicks +4500

Unlike the Cavaliers and the Pacers, who advanced by beating wounded opponents (Miami and Milwaukee), the Knicks and Celtics both took their own beatings in getting to the second round. Orlando’s physical style of play left Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both at less than 100 percent, and Jrue Holiday missed the final three games against the Magic. The Knicks have their own issues, with Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart both banged up, and Karl-Anthony Towns always seeming to take hits in the wrong places. Boston’s game plan in this series doesn’t figure to change much from the regular season – slow the pace (the Celtics run only on live turnovers), work the ball around the 3-point line until someone gets a clean look, then bomb away. Boston counts on defenses not being able to play deep into the shot clock for an entire game of possessions. The Celtics have a collective ton of playoff experience, and the Knicks rarely give them trouble. Of the four EC finalists, the Knicks probably have the least gas in their tank after a difficult Pistons series in which every game seemed to come down to the final possession. Boston has beaten the tar out of the Knicks in recent years, and won all four games this season with an average margin of 16 points. While Boston is trying to make it two titles in a row, New York’s last championship was in 1973 – the season the Walt Frazier/Willis Reed/Bill Bradley Knicks took out the Celtics in seven games in the EC finals before disposing of the Lakers in The Finals.

Author: Nick Parson
Published: 2025-03-08

David Stern is widely credited with saving the NBA in the 1980s. Recreational drug use was common back then. the league was so disparaged by the fan base that The Finals were actually broadcast on tape delay.

 

The commish was then gifted with the arrival of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and (later) Michael Jordan, and took advantage by marketing stars over teams. The public bought in, and a few generations later the league is still thriving.

 

Adam Silver, Falk’s replacement, has been just as lucky. Silver must be pinching himself after the Midwest Mavericks decided that they were not going to babysit an out-of-shape Luka Doncic and sent him to the Lakers only eight months after Doncic had led them to the Finals.

 

So while the Mavs look at a grim future with a broken down Anthony Davis and aging Kyrie Irving out for all of next season with an ACL tear, the Lakers ride into Boston Saturday night as the hottest team in the Western Conference and with a legit shot at making it to The Finals again.

 

And while Silver would never admit it in public, he has to be smiling ear to ear at the prospect of the Lakers and Celtics going at it for the upteenth time in The Finals.  The story lines will write themselves. Cleveland and Oklahoma City will get their due as the top conference seeds, but just about every fan outside of Ohio and Oklahoma wants Boston vs. LA.

 

Before Doncic dropped in their laps, the Lakers were just another Good But Not Great team in the belly of a powerful Western Conference. LeBron James was always going to get them to the playoffs somehow, but it looked like they might have to fight their way out of the Play-In, again. Would Davis be healthy for a two-month playoff run? Would LeBron have any legs left? And they might still have to get past the Nuggets, their own white whale.

 

The Doncic deal has flipped that script. The Doncic/LeBron Lakers went into Denver a few weeks ago and spanked the Nuggets by 23, with LA somehow harassing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic into one of his worst games of the year. Doncic dropped 32 points in 31 minutes, erasing all doubt that having two ball-dominant players on the court at the same time would not be an issue.

 

The next test comes Sunday night in Boston, where the Celtics have lost 11 times this season. The Green  might have been freaked by Cleveland’s hot start, and basically have load-managed their way through the season. Thursday night Boston sat four rotation players against the woeful Sixers, and still cruised. It will be interested to see if all hands will be on board against the Lakers on Saturday.

 

The Lakers and Celtics met in Los Angeles a month and a half ago. Davis and James outplayed Tatum and Brown. Everyone else was there to comply with rules that require five players on the court at all times, and the Lakers cruised over a tired Boston team that had gone overtime against the Clippers the night before. That Laker win will be long forgotten if the teams navigate through the playoffs and meet up in the Finals for the 13th time.

 

Like the Lakers, the Celtics have won 8 of their last games heading into Saturday. Boston has been installed as an early 6.5-point favorite. Boston is still a slight favorite to make it back-to-back titles, at +190 after opening at +300. The Lakers, now in second in the West, have made a huge leap and are now +900 after opening the season at +4000.

 

Russell vs. West, Baylor, and Chamberlain.

Magic and Kareem vs. Bird.

Kobe vs. Garnett and Pierce.

LeBron and Doncic vs. Tatum and Brown?

 

Why not?

Author: Nick Parsons
Published: 2025-03-07

David Stern is widely credited with saving the NBA in the 1980s. Recreational drug use was common back then. the league was so disparaged by the fan base that The Finals were actually broadcast on tape delay.

The commish was then gifted with the arrival of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and (later) Michael Jordan, and took advantage by marketing stars over teams. The public bought in, and a few generations later the league is still thriving.

Adam Silver, Falk’s replacement, has been just as lucky. Silver must be pinching himself after the Midwest Mavericks decided that they were not going to babysit an out-of-shape Luka Doncic and sent him to the Lakers only eight months after Doncic had led them to the Finals.

So while the Mavs look at a grim future with a broken down Anthony Davis and aging Kyrie Irving out for all of next season with an ACL tear, the Lakers ride into Boston Saturday night as the hottest team in the Western Conference and with a legit shot at making it to The Finals again.

And while Silver would never admit it in public, he has to be smiling ear to ear at the prospect of the Lakers and Celtics going at it for the upteenth time in The Finals.  The story lines will write themselves. Cleveland and Oklahoma City will get their due as the top conference seeds, but just about every fan outside of Ohio and Oklahoma wants Boston vs. LA.

Before Doncic dropped in their laps, the Lakers were just another Good But Not Great team in the belly of a powerful Western Conference. LeBron James was always going to get them to the playoffs somehow, but it looked like they might have to fight their way out of the Play-In, again. Would Davis be healthy for a two-month playoff run? Would LeBron have any legs left? And they might still have to get past the Nuggets, their own white whale.

The Doncic deal has flipped that script. The Doncic/LeBron Lakers went into Denver a few weeks ago and spanked the Nuggets by 23, with LA somehow harassing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic into one of his worst games of the year. Doncic dropped 32 points in 31 minutes, erasing all doubt that having two ball-dominant players on the court at the same time would not be an issue.

The next test comes Sunday night in Boston, where the Celtics have lost 11 times this season. The Green  might have been freaked by Cleveland’s hot start, and basically have load-managed their way through the season. Thursday night Boston sat four rotation players against the woeful Sixers, and still cruised. It will be interested to see if all hands will be on board against the Lakers on Saturday.

The Lakers and Celtics met in Los Angeles a month and a half ago. Davis and James outplayed Tatum and Brown. Everyone else was there to comply with rules that require five players on the court at all times, and the Lakers cruised over a tired Boston team that had gone overtime against the Clippers the night before. That Laker win will be long forgotten if the teams navigate through the playoffs and meet up in the Finals for the 13th time.

Like the Lakers, the Celtics have won 8 of their last games heading into Saturday. Boston has been installed as an early 6.5-point favorite. Boston is still a slight favorite to make it back-to-back titles, at +190 after opening at +300. The Lakers, now in second in the West, have made a huge leap and are now +900 after opening the season at +4000.

Russell vs. West, Baylor, and Chamberlain.
Magic and Kareem vs. Bird.
Kobe vs. Garnett and Pierce.
LeBron and Doncic vs. Tatum and Brown?
Why not?
 

Author: Jeff's Hochman
Published: 2025-02-20

Grade 2 Rebel Stakes | Oaklawn Park | Race 11 | Feb. 23


Top Win Contenders


#3 Sandman (4/1), trained by Mark Casse & ridden by Cristian Torres


Tapit sires this 3-year-old colt and has an impressive record of 6 races with two wins, 1-second place, and one-third place, earning a total of $344,595. Last month, he finished a close second by just one length to the winner, Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Sandman achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 101 and has improved his figures over the last four races. He won in an Allowance race as the 5/2 favorite two races back, racing 1 mile at Oaklawn. This upcoming race will be his second start during his 3-year-old campaign, following five races as a 2-year-old. He appears ready, featuring a series of impressive workouts over this course. Don't expect odds of 4/1; they are likely closer to 2/1, so I will look for alternatives.


#5 Madaket Road (9/2), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.


This lightly raced 3-year-old colt by Quality Road has three career starts, with one win, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish, earning $80,000. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita on opening day this past December as the 4/5 favorite. However, in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on February 1st, he finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Citizen Bull. Although he appears to be a win contender, especially considering the strength of his connections, this will be his second race in just 22 days. Although I have some doubts, I wouldn’t be surprised if he performs well. Since 2010, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has achieved an impressive record in the Rebel: eight wins, four second-place finishes, and one-third from 16 starters. This results in a 50% win rate and an 81% in-the-money rate.


#10 Bullard (5/1), trained by Michael McCarthy & ridden by Umberto Rispoli


This 3-year-old colt by Gun Runner has achieved two wins and one third-place finish in three starts, earning $129,000. Bullard secured his victory in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes two races ago, earning a career-best Equibase speed figure of 105 at Del Mar last November. In his only race this year, Bullard finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Barnes, and the second-place finisher, Madaket Road, in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. The 5/1 morning line shows considerable respect from the track handicapper for a horse that has never raced at Oaklawn or competed in distances longer than 7 furlongs. However, Bullard is a respected purchase at $675,000 from the Keeneland September 2023 yearling sale. Trainer McCarthy and jockey Rispoli have a winning rate of 28%, finishing in the money 59% of the time when they team up.


#11 Speed King (6/1), trained by Ron Moquett & ridden by Rafael Bejarano


Speed King has demonstrated significant potential, securing two victories and one-second place from three races, accumulating $669,000, the second-highest earnings in the field. He won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park at odds of 14/1 on January 25th. Two starts back, he broke his maiden at odds of nearly 23/1 at Churchill Downs. Speed King's speed figures have steadily improved, increasing from 93 to 103 in his first three races. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and also 1-for-1 at this distance. He will likely attract significant betting interest by post-time, and I don't expect his odds to be any higher than 9/2. His most recent workout is very impressive, where he completed 4 furlongs in 48 seconds, ranking fourth-best out of 117 horses.


Live Long Shots


#1 Coal Battle (10/1), trained by Lonnie Briley & ridden by Juan Vargas


This three-year-old colt by Coal Front has achieved four victories in six career starts, earning $453,875. He has won three consecutive races, all listed stakes events, by a combined margin of seven lengths. Notably, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes, completing the distance of 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn on January 4th. Coal Battle needs to improve his speed figures, as his career best of 96 from two starts ago will not be sufficient to win this race. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and 1-for-1 at this distance and beat Speed King in the Remington Springboard Mile last December. If Speed King is a good bet at 6/1, consider Coal Battle at 10/1. This horse boasts an impressive record, having never lost a race on dirt. Both of his losses occurred on turf. While his training performances might not be particularly impressive, it's important to remember that some horses do not enjoy morning workouts.


#2 Admiral Dennis (12/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux


Admiral Dennis has two wins and one third-place finish in four career starts, earning $119,800. He won an allowance race at Fairgrounds on January 20th, going 1 1/16 miles, as the odds-on favorite. He has been the favorite at post-time in all four races. Two starts back, he stumbled at the start but made up good ground to finish fourth, 16 ½ lengths behind the winner, Built in the Gun Runner Stakes (listed). You must respect trainer Brad Cox, who wins 28% of the time and finishes in the money 62% of the time in all stakes races. He wins 30% and finishes in the money 62% in all dirt races at today's distance.


#9 Smokin Wicked (8/1), trained by Dallas Stewart & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione


This 3-year-old colt, by Bobby’s Wicked One, was purchased for just $38,000—what a bargain! In 2024, he earned $307,542 with four wins, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish. This race will mark his first start in 2025, which may be a disadvantage when predicting the winner. Ten of the last 12 winners prepped with a race in January or February. Horses making their first start of the year in the Rebel have won only 2 out of 14 times during the same period. However, Smokin Wicked has won three consecutive races, including the Louisiana Futurity Stakes (listed) last December, where he achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 112, the highest in the field. His recent workout performances have been impressive, and he boasts the fastest late-pace speed figure of 112 among the contenders. The only concern is whether he can handle this distance.


#13 Tiztastic (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Jose Ortiz


This 3-year-old colt, by Tiz the Law, has earned a check in five consecutive races after finishing fifth in his first career start last July at Saratoga. He encountered some traffic issues but finished third, 2 ½ lengths behind Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes last month. With career earnings of $909,800, he holds the highest total in the field. Tiztastic has won two races, both on turf, raising concerns about his ability on other surfaces. He was purchased for $335,000 at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale for an ownership group that has enjoyed considerable success. You must respect the connections; trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Irad Ortiz have a combined winning percentage of 35% and finish in the money 60% of the time when they unite.


Selections


#10 Bullard (5/1) Win & Place

#1 Coal Battle (10/1) Place & Show


Follow Jeff on X @JHSPORTSLINE

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 8:30 PM EST Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX Broadcast: NBCS-CA, KFAA, WFAA

The Dallas Mavericks (28-25, 15-10 home) will host the Sacramento Kings (26-26, 12-13 away) in a Western Conference showdown. The Mavericks are just 1.5-point favorites, indicating an expected tight matchup1. Both teams have been scoring well this season, with the Mavericks averaging 115.5 points per game and the Kings averaging 116.2 points per game.

Top Performers:

Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Davis (25.7 PTS, 12.0 REB, 1.3 STL, 2.2 BLK), Kyrie Irving (24.1 PTS, 1.3 STL, 47.5 FG%), Daniel Gafford (12.5 PTS, 1.9 BLK).

Sacramento Kings: Domantas Sabonis (20.5 PTS, 14.3 REB, 6.2 AST), Zach LaVine (23.6 PTS, 50.5 FG%), De'Aaron Fox (21.2 PTS, 4.8 AST).

This game promises to be an exciting clash with both teams looking to secure a crucial win. The Mavericks will aim to capitalize on their home advantage, while the Kings will look to improve their away record.

 

ROCKETMAN LINE:  Sacramento by 10.   Play On: Sacramento +1

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Baylor Bears vs. Houston Cougars

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 9:00 PM EST Venue: Fertitta Center, Houston, TX Broadcast: ESPN

The Houston Cougars (19-4, 11-1 Big 12) will host the Baylor Bears (15-8, 7-5 Big 12) in a highly anticipated Big 12 matchup. Houston is coming off a solid 69-59 victory over Colorado, with leading scorer LJ Cryer playing through a knuckle injury on his right hand. Despite the injury, Cryer is determined to play and contribute to his team's success1.

Baylor, on the other hand, is looking to bounce back from a recent loss to Texas Tech. The Bears are led by Norchad Omier, who averages 15.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, and VJ Edgecombe, who adds 15 points and 5.1 rebounds per game2.

This game promises to be a classic Lone Star State rivalry, with Houston aiming to extend their impressive home record and Baylor looking to secure a crucial win on the road. Expect a methodical, low-scoring game between two of the Big 12's most disciplined teams.

 

Rocketman line:  Houston by 6.5 .  Take Baylor +9 1/2

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-02-10

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

Date: Monday, February 10, 2025 Time: 11:00 PM EST Venue: Lawlor Events Center, Reno, NV Broadcast: FS1

The Nevada Wolf Pack (13-10, 5-7 MWC) will host the Fresno State Bulldogs (5-19, 1-12 MWC) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Nevada is coming off a solid 74-60 victory over Air Force, which has given them a boost of confidence heading into this game. The Wolf Pack have been strong at home this season, boasting a 9-4 record at Lawlor Events Center1.

On the other hand, Fresno State is struggling this season with a 5-19 record and a 1-12 record in conference play. The Bulldogs are coming off an 81-89 loss to Utah State and are looking to turn things around1. They will rely on their top scorer, Jalen Weaver, who averages 12.5 points per game, to lead the offense against a tough Nevada defense.

Nevada's Nick Davidson, who averages 15.8 points per game, is expected to be a key player in this matchup. The Wolf Pack's strong defensive play, allowing only 67.6 points per game, will be crucial in containing the Bulldogs' offense1.

This game promises to be an exciting battle as Nevada aims to extend their home dominance and Fresno State looks to secure their first conference win of the season. Don't miss this late-night clash in the Mountain West Conference!

 

Rocketman Line:  Nevada by 17.  Take Nevada -14 1/2