Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2026-03-02

We snagged a top ten with Nicolai Højgaard who finished T6 after making the cut on the number and going 66, 65 over the weekend but it was a very disappointing card from a less than stellar field. Shane Lowry had the Cognizant Classic in his grasp but double bogeys on 16 and 17 saw a three-shot lead turn into a two-shot deficit and Nico Echavarria took advantage with a huge birdie on 17 to win by two to capture his third PGA Tour win. The Florida swing continues with the third signature event of the season as this week it is the highly regarded Arnold Palmer Invitational from Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida.

Formerly known as the Bay Hill Invitational, the name changed in 2007 recognizing Palmer who took over the property. This will be the third signature event over the last four weeks and while the field goes up in strength immensely from last week, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is a limited field to 72 players with the cut at top 50 and ties similar to the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Bay Hill is a par 72 that stretches to 7,466 yards and while it is especially long, it plays even longer due to doglegs and extremely thick rough that eats up balls. It is annually one of the tougher tracks in difficulty and has been ranked No. 8, No. 10 and No. 10 the last three years. 

Over the last years of this event, only two players have finished lower than -17 and those were Rory McIlroy at -18 in 2018 and Scottie Scheffler at -15 in 2024. Because of the length, distance is important but not close to the biggest factor at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as over the last 15 years, the winner has finished inside the top ten in Driving Distance only four times with eight outside the top 30. Driving Accuracy is even less important which is surprising because of the difficulty of the rough as of those last 15 winners, 12 were ranked outside the top 25 in accuracy. We have to key on SG: Tee-To-Green, Proximity: 200+ Yards and SG: Approach with SG: Around-The-Green being important as well. 

While course history meant little last week at PGA National, it is very important this week as eight of the last nine winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational have a T15 or better finish in a previous Bay Hill start with Kurt Kitayama being the only exception in 2023 as he was actually a debutant. Of the 72 players in the field this week, 42 have at least one T15 since 2016 so we will be relying on course history heavily as well. We also take into consideration similar courses in setup and difficulty and correlating events this week are the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow Club, the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village and the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course).  

We are back to a limited signature event field with the best of the best as 38 of the top 40 are in play this week with only Aaron Rai and Marco Penge sitting out. Because this is just the third year of it being a signature event and not a typical full field, only five previous winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational are playing including defending champion Russell Henley along with Kitayama, Scheffler, McIlroy and Jason Day. Justin Thomas is making his season debut and first start since finishing 69th at the Procore Championship last September prior to his back surgery as is Sungjae Im who is back from a wrist injury. Nine first timers will be teeing it up this week.  

The forecast is similar to last week with temperatures in the mid 80s throughout the week with no rain expected while winds will not be a big factor at 10-15 mph. 

From a statistical standpoint, it is iron play being most important again this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with our top four key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Proximity: 200+ Yards
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: Win 2,600 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 205
Payout: Win 1,300.00 ~ Top Five 112.50 ~ Top Ten 51.25

Fitzpatrick has been playing at a high level and we have been on him a couple times with a top ten to show for it with the putter letting him down in three of his four starts. He is ranked No. 5 in SG: Tee-To-Green, No. 18 in Proximity: 200+ Yards and No. 4 in SG: Approach so his ball striking is spot on. His success at Bay Hill is the best in the field without a win as he has seven T22 or better in his last nine starts including four top tens. He has never lost strokes putting at Bay Hill so if that sticks, look out.

Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 490 ~ Top Ten 220
Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 122.50 ~ Top Ten 55.00

Matsuyama nearly picked up a win at the WM Phoenix Open but lost in a playoff and he has been excellent around that as well. He has three other T13 or better and while his latest start at The Genesis Invitational resulted in a T28, it was his normally elite approach game that let him down. He is ranked 16th or better in all four key categories including No. 2 in Proximity: 200+ Yards. He has not been in contention here since 2016 but does have four T25’s the last five years including a T12 in 2024. 

Ludvig Åberg
Odds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 680 ~ Top Ten 305
Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 170.00 ~ Top Ten 76.25

Åberg is the one outlier of the card that does not have a T15 at Bay Hill but he does have three 25s in three starts so he is comfortable and his T22 last year came after a win. His 2026 season got off to a similar start like 2025 as he started slow with an illness as he withdrew from the American Express and then missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has a T20 in his last start at the Genesis Invitational and has gained strokes in all categories his last two starts after an abysmal showing at Torrey. 

Shane Lowry
Odds: Win 4,900 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 325
Payout: Win 2,450.00 ~ Top Five 187.50 ~ Top Ten 81.25

We had Lowry circled for this event and had he won last week, we probably would be off him but his implosion is giving us value and his motivation will be peaking. He was great last week with the exception of those last two holes especially and it was his second T8 in three starts. He is ranked No. 21 in SG: Tee-To-Green, No. 10 in Proximity: 200+ Yards and No. 12 in SG: Approach and while way down the list in SG: Around-The-Green, he was plus the last two years at Bay Hill where he finished solo 3 and solo 7. 

Sahith Theegala
Odds: Win 9,800 ~ Top Five 1,325 ~ Top Ten 550
Payout: Win 4,900.00 ~ Top Five 331.25 ~ Top Ten 137.50

Theegala has gotten his game back after an awful 2025 season and his odds are still reflecting that. He opened T31 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and then came back with a T8, T7 and T18 and after struggling around and on the greens at Pebble Beach, he bounced back with a T22 at The Genesis Invitational. His struggles at Pebble were surprising as he is No. 36 in SG: Around-The-Green. He missed the cut here last year but that was last year and he was T6 in 2024 and T14 in 2023 so he has the course fit. 

Results through the Cognizant Classic (4 Tournaments):

Win: -8,000.00
Top Five: +325.00
Top Ten: +875.00

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2026-02-25

We were out of the money for the first time with The Genesis Invitational as it was Jacob Bridgeman winning his first PGA Tour event. He bogeyed two of his last three holes last week at Pebble Beach to fall short and it looked like another possible meltdown at Riviera. After birdieing two of his first three holes, eventually building a seven-shot lead, he went +3 over his last 15 holes and held off Kurt Kitayama and Rory McIlroy to win by only one shot. The California swing is complete and the tour heads to Florida for the next four events starting with the Cognizant Classic from PGA National Resort (Champions Course) in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Formerly known as The Honda Classic, Cognizant took over sponsorship in 2024 and unfortunately for the event, it precedes the signature event Arnold Palmer Invitational and this year has to follow a signature event as it was usually played after the Mexico Open but that was moved to late October. The Champions Course at PGA National is a par 71 and will be played at 7,223 yards, an increase of around 100 yards from last year. The yardage increase means little as this was once a very difficult track but a renovation was done after the 2022 edition and the biggest course change was changing the fairways from Bermuda to a more forgiving Ryegrass overseed.

From 2004-2022, the lowest winning score was -14 in 2005 and since the changes, the winning scores have been -14 by Chris Kirk in 2023, -17 by Austin Eckroat in 2024 and -19 by Joe Highsmith in 2025. There are still dangers at the Cognizant Classic, most notably holes 15, 16 and 17 conveniently dubbed The Bear Trap after Jack Nicklaus, and while it has eased up, it is still one of the most difficult three-hole stretches on tour. SG: Approach is by far the most important key stat this week as this is one of the toughest approach courses and each of the last five winners have finished top 10 in Approach. Additionally, SG: Putting is right there with three of the last five winners inside the top 10.

Course history has meant little here, even before the renovations, as of the last six winners, three had missed the cut the previous year and three others finished no higher than T33 the year before. A lot of this is due to the wide open field that changes drastically year to year without the big names in play so it has been a wide open event. Notable past winners from 2012-2018 Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Adam Scott (WD this year), Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas rarely are to be found anymore. Correlating events this week are the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links, the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale and the RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort.

We are back to a full field in the Cognizant Classic at 123 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut. Because of Monday withdrawals, there are no OWGR top 25 players in the field as Ryan Gerard is the highest ranked player at No. 26. Only eight players ranked in the top 50 are in town this week (Gerard, Shane Lowry, Aaron Rai, Michael Brennan, Kristoffer Reitan, Rasmus Højgaard, Sami Valimaki and Michael Thorbjornsen) with other notables Brooks Koepka, Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, Max Homa, Billy Horschel and Gary Woodland. The defending champion is Joe Highsmith who won by two shots over Jacob Bridgeman and J.J. Spaun.

The forecast calls for low 80s throughout the week with a slight chance of rain each day but nothing noteworthy while winds will be a factor at 10-15 mph favoring lower ball hitters. 

From a statistical standpoint, iron play at the Cognizant Classic tops the list with our top three key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Bogey Avoidance

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Nicolai Højgaard
Odds: Win 2,150 ~ Top Five 420 ~ Top Ten 215
Payout: Win 1,075.00 ~ Top Five 105.00 ~ Top Ten 53.75

Højgaard is one of the favorites just ahead of twin brother Rasmus and will be out to gain his first PGA Tour win. He has gotten off to a solid start with a T22 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open. He comes in No. 1 in the field in SG: Off The Tee, No. 9 in SG: Approach and No. 1 in Bogey Avoidance and while his Bermuda putting has been average, he is No. 19 in the field in that category. He was T14 here last year as he had four sub-70 rounds as his approach game was spot on and was +0.88 in putting.

John Keefer
Odds: Win 4,800 ~ Top Five 810 ~ Top Ten 395
Payout: Win 2,400.00 ~ Top Five 202.50 ~ Top Ten 98.75

Keefer is not a household name yet but good things await after finishing No. 1 on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. He finished T7 at the correlating RSM Classic to close 2025 and he has made all four cuts to start 2026. His putting has been horrible but he goes from Poa Annua to Bermuda which is going to help his game. His iron game has kept him around for all four weekends as he is No. 5 in the field in SG: Approach as well as No. 5 in SG: Off The Tee and overall on tour, he is No. 9 in GIR.

Sami Valimaki
Odds: Win 6,100 ~ Top Five 970 ~ Top Ten 455
Payout: Win 3,050.00 ~ Top Five 242.50 ~ Top Ten 113.75

After missing the cut in his first two starts at The American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open, Valimaki has been trending the right way with a T41, T34 and T37 in his last three starts. Since it has been nothing off the charts, his numbers are not in the upper echelon but he has been plus in SG: Approach in those last three starts including +1.21 at The Genesis Invitational. His last start in 2025 was at the correlating RSM Classic which he won in a similar field and was plus in SG across the board. 

David Ford
Odds: Win 11,000 ~ Top Five 1,600 ~ Top Ten 720
Payout: Win 5,500.00 ~ Top Five 400.00 ~ Top Ten 180.00

Ford is another name people are not familiar with but he fits the mold here. He has made three starts with his best finish a T13 at The American Express and while it is a small sample, he is No. 12 in SG: Approach, No. 1 in Total Driving and No. 7 in Ball Striking on tour and in the field, he is No. 6 in SG: Approach and No. 8 in Bogey Avoidance and even though he is a rookie, he actually has a win at PGA National and while it was six years ago and course history is not important, it brings in confidence. 

Results through The Genesis Invitational (3 Tournaments):

Win: -6,000.00
Top Five: +1,325.00
Top Ten: +837.50

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2026-02-17

The weather played a factor over the weekend but players still went low at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. We once again had three players in contention on Sunday but had to settle for a T2 with Sepp Straka with Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley finishing in the top 20. Colin Morikawa birdied the 72nd hole to claim a one shot victory, his first win in over two years, a span of 45 starts and it was certainly fulfilling both professionally and personally. The PGA Tour remains in California for a second straight week and a second straight signature event with The Genesis Invitational as it returns to The Riviera Country Club.

The Genesis was forced to move to Torrey Pines South Course last season because of the devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area and Riviera will be hosting for the 62nd time. The Riviera Country Club is a par 71 that will play to 7,322 yards and it is one of the most classic and traditional courses on tour. While short on paper, it makes up for in difficulty as fairways are a challenge to find and greens are hard to hit. The difference is 10 percent for both as the PGA Tour average in hitting fairways is 61 percent but it is just 51 percent here while greens in regulation is 56 percent at Riviera compared to 66 percent everywhere else.

Being an accurate driver of the golf ball is not the path to victory however as it is the iron play factored in that is the biggest asset with the last three winners here finishing just 27th, 63rd and 58th in Driving Accuracy. Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green was the top key statistical category last week and is again this week as of the last eight winners of The Genesis on this course, seven have finished in the top three in SG: T2G while seven of the last eight winners have finished in the top seven in Greens In Regulation. The Poa annua greens are difficult to hit and not easy to roll on either so Strokes Gained: Putting and Putting Average are key as well.

Course history is vital here as only two of the last 20 winners at Riviera had played it fewer than four times so we have to look at experience and having success certainly helps. Over the last four editions at Riviera from 2021-2024, there are five players that have at least three top 20s, Max Homa (four), Scottie Scheffler (four), Viktor Hovland (four), Patrick Cantlay (three) and Colin Morikawa (three). We also have to look at correlating events with the top ones being the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines South Course, the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow and the Cognizant Classic at PGA National Golf Club.

While last week was a no cut event with 80 players, The Genesis Invitational field is 72 players with a cut as the top 50 and ties along with players within 10 shots will play the weekend. Being a signature event, we are getting the best of the best again as 18 of the OWGR top 20 players will be teeing it up this week. Defending champion Ludvig Aberg shot a final round 66 to win by one shot over Maverick McNealy but of course that comes with an asterisk as it was played at Torrey Pines South. The defending champion at Riviera is Hideki Matsuyama who fired a Sunday 62 as he was +8.47 in Strokes Gained in round four.

Rain is expected early in the week leading into Thursday but Friday through Sunday look to be mostly rain free with moderate wins throughout the weekend.

From a statistical standpoint, it is pretty straight forward with our top three key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Greens In Regulation Percentage
Putting Average

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Patrick Cantlay
Odds: Win 2,700 ~ Top Five 435 ~ Top Ten 200
Payout: Win 1,350.00 ~ Top Five 108.75 ~ Top Ten 50.00

Cantlay was in and out of contention at Pebble Beach and a closing 65 brings some momentum into this week. A 71 at Spyglass on Friday was to his detriment and he heads to Riviera where he has played well with a third in 2023 and a T4 in 2024 and also has strong finishes last year at Torrey Pines South with a T5 and a T4 at the Truist. He has a T14 and a T13 this season while missing the cut at the Farmers where he gained strokes everywhere except for on the greens. However, he is coming off his second best putting performance last week since the U.S. Open, a span of 11 starts and he comes in No. 5 in GIR Percentage and No. 17 SG: Tee-To-Green.

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: Win 3,600 ~ Top Five 560 ~ Top Ten 250
Payout: Win 1,800.00 ~ Top Five 140.00 ~ Top Ten 62.50

We were on Fitz two weeks ago where he finished solo ninth in Phoenix and is coming off another solid performance last week with a T14 so he comes in playing great. He has had limited success at Riviera with a T5 in 2021 but missed the cut in 2023 and 2024 but comes in with much better form this time around. His putter has been awful as he is No. 111 in Putting Average and while that is a concern, he did have his best week last week at Pebble and the rest of his game nears the top of the field. He is No. 3 in GIR Percentage and No. 7 in SG: Tee-To-Green so if his putter even gets just warm, he will be in contention.

Maverick McNealy
Odds: Win 4,100 ~ Top Five 620 ~ Top Ten 280
Payout: Win 2,050.00 ~ Top Five 155.00 ~ Top Ten 70.00

McNealy has been our guy the last two weeks and if he had shown up on Sunday in either, he would have been well inside the top ten and possibly even better. He finished second at the Genesis last year but that was at Torrey Pines South so we count that as a correlating event but he had a T7 here in 2022. He is ranked No. 18 in the Data Golf Performance Table in Raw Strokes Gained and is one of only nine players in the top 18 that are plus in all five SG categories. He is ranked No. 10 in all five categories so his consistency is a huge asset. His strengths have been Approach and Tee-To-Green and he knows these greens to up his putting.  

Shane Lowry
Odds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 950 ~ Top Ten 405
Payout: Win 3,500.00 ~ Top Five 237.50 ~ Top Ten 101.25

Lowry made his U.S. debut last week at Pebble Beach and finished T8. He had a great fall on the DP World Tour with a pair of top threes and he has been extremely consistent going back a full calendar year. However, he is ranked just No. 29 in the OWGR largely due to not having won much as his only solo win on U.S. soil was the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational (he won with Rory at the 2024 Zurich). This is a great course fit and while his best most recent finish is a T14 in 2023, he has not played it much. His correlating finishes are a T2 last year at Quail Hollow and a second and T4 in 2022 and 2023 at PGA National. Amazing value here.

Results through The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am (2 Tournaments):

Win: -4,000.00
Top Five: +2,325.00
Top Ten: +1,837.50

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2026-02-11

The WM Phoenix Open did not disappoint and we nearly opened the season with a big payday. We had three players in contention on Sunday but had to settle for a T3 with Si Woo Kim and a solo ninth with Matt Fitzpatrick for the money. A bogey by Hideki Matsuyama on the 72nd hole forced a playoff with Chris Gotterup, who birdied six of his last six holes and then birdied the first playoff hole to gain his second win of the young season. This week marks the first signature event of the season with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am taking place on the Monterey Peninsula, two hours north of San Francisco. Last year, this event preceded the WM Phoenix Open but they flip-flopped this year and now this is the first of back-to-back signature events with The Genesis Invitational from The Riviera Country Club next week. 

With many courses getting longer, Pebble Beach is one of the outliers being one of the shortest on tour at 6,972 yards but that does not make it easy. Driving distance can be an advantage but that can bring inaccuracy into play and that is a problem here. Thus, use of the driver is scaled back and last year, driving distance averaged 277 yards with the tour average being 293 yards and that led to more greens being hit, 72 percent with the tour average being 66 percent. The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet, making the greens the smallest on the PGA Tour so keeping the ball in the fairway for easier approaches is essential. Because the greens are so small, there are still plenty of missed putting surfaces so getting the ball up and down is another key to success.

With recent history of playing only two of four rounds at Pebble Beach, only half of the rounds are factored into the Strokes Gained metrics so while course history is important, looking at outside stats are just as big, especially correlating events, with the top three being the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands and the Procore Championship at Silverado Resort. As far as course history, knowing the lay of the land is vital just like most everywhere and past winners here need to have not only experience but successful experience as the last two decades plus of winners have made the cut at least once prior to their win.

Gone are the three long and laborious pro-am rounds over three different courses from Thursday through Saturday as now being a signature event, the field has been shortened to 80 players with no cut. Players will alternate between Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill on Thursday and Friday during the pro-am portion and finish with both rounds at Pebble Beach over the weekend with just the professionals playing and it will be that course data we will rely on considering there has been no Shot Link data from Spyglass. This is the best field of the season so far with every player of the world's top 10 and 22 of the top 25 teeing it up. Reigning champion Rory McIlroy will be making his US debut as will No. 4 Tommy Fleetwood while 2026 PGA Tour winners Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose and Chris Gotterup round out the top five. 

Weather can be an issue this time of year and we saw that two years when the event was shortened to 54 holes with Wyndham Clark winning by one shot over Ludvig Åberg after shooting a course record 60 in the third and ultimately final round. The weather looks to be a non-issue this year with average temperatures and not much wind until Sunday.

From a statistical standpoint, it is pretty straight forward with our top three key categories being:

Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Maverick McNealy
Odds: Win 2,900 ~ Top Five 480 ~ Top Ten 220
Payout: Win 1,450.00 ~ Top Five 120.00 ~ Top Ten 55.00

We were on McNealy last week and it was another poor Sunday as he finished outside the top 10 but has three top 25 finishes in his first three starts. He has gained strokes in all three key categories in those starts and he is coming back to somewhere he loves. This is the place to get back on top as the Stanford native knows Pebble Beach well and has had success as a pro as he has two top five finishes here in his seven appearances. He is plus in SG: Approach in 13 of his last 14 starts and that has resulted in 11 top 25s including a pair of top fives. In correlating courses, he has a third and fourth at Harbour Town and a second at Silverado.

Russell Henley
Odds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 475 ~ Top Ten 215
Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 118.75 ~ Top Ten 53.75

Henley is ranked No. 6 in the OWGR and is a player that gets no respect despite not finishing outside the top 20 in any event over his last 10 starts after missing the cut at the PGA Championship. He is only missing a win as he has runners-up at the Travelers Championship and the Tour Championship. He has made two starts this year with a T8 at The American Express and a T19 at the Sony Open and he is ranked inside the top 10 in both SG: Approach and SG: Around The Green and was No. 4 in SG: Total in 2025. He was T5 here last year and looking at the correlating Harbour Town, his last three starts are T8, T12 and T19. 

Patrick Cantlay
Odds: Win 3,800 ~ Top Five 580 ~ Top Ten 265
Payout: Win 1,900.00 ~ Top Five 145.00 ~ Top Ten 66.25

No one wants to bet on Cantlay and there is usually value because of it. He finished T13 at The American Express and missed the cut at the Farmers as his putter has been ice cold, losing 1.43 strokes combined but was plus in SG: Total in both as well as nine of his last 10 starts. He did not start in here 2023 and has gone T11 in 2020, T3 in 2021, T4 in 2022, T11 in 2024 and T33 last year and while going backwards, the numbers are there. He has also been great at the correlating RBS Heritage with four third place finishes and a second while posting a fourth and a fifth at TPC River Highlands, another correlating course. 

Sepp Straka
Odds: Win 6,300 ~ Top Five 890 ~ Top Ten 390
Payout: Win 3,150.00 ~ Top Five 222.50 ~ Top Ten 97.50

Straka is No. 14 in the OWGR but he is still getting no love as this number is the same as Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee and Rickie Fowler which are ranked No. 29, No. 52 and No. 75 respectively. He was not a factor last week but still quietly finished T18 and he has the key stats and course fit for Pebble Beach. His approach game is spot on, gaining strokes in 22 of his last 25 starts while sitting second in the field in SG: Approach on similar short courses and he is fifth in the field in strokes gained in signature events over the past 18 months. He has made two starts here the last five years and finished T26 in 2024 and T7 last year. 

Results through The WM Phoenix Open (1 Tournament):

Win: -2,000
Top Five: +600
Top Ten: +1,120.50

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2026-02-04

The PGA Tour will officially begin our season this week following three events to open 2026. There has been some reshuffling of the schedule from previous years as there was no opening Sentry this year as it was cancelled due to course conditions and the season started two weeks later than last year. We are coming off just three events leading into Phoenix and after being sandwiched in-between signature events in 2025, this year’s edition precedes two consecutive signature events, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational.

The Greatest Show on Grass is the perfect stop prior to the signature events and in its usual spot on the schedule during Super Bowl week. The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale has been a fan favorite for years and annually is the most attended event on tour, surpassing 700,000 spectators (they are not called patrons here) each year. Highlighted by The Colosseum, the par three No. 16 hole that accommodates 20,000 fans, this is the ultimate week long Darty.

TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is a 7,261-yard par 71 featuring two-inch fairway rough, 67 bunkers, six holes with water hazards, firm TifEagle Bermudagrass green complexes with Poa Overseed, making this a classic dessert course all around. Scoring is low as the winning score was between -16 and -19 from 2017 through 2023 until Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman went to a playoff 2024 after finishing -21, eventually won by Taylor on the second playoff hole and then last season, Thomas Detry won by seven shots at -24.

Playing before two signature events will hurt the field at most places and while that is the case here, there are still plenty of marquee names teeing it up. 11 of the top 20 in the OWGR are playing as well as 10 former major winners are in the field. Scottie Scheffler heads the list after capturing his 20th PGA Tour victory at The American Express and returns to the place of his first PGA Tour win back in 2022. The other top 20 players are Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, Harris English, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Chris Gotterup, Collin Morikawa and Cameron Young.

Course fit and history is important to succeed here as TPC Scottsdale is No. 3 on tour in terms of projecting future success, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC. Another connection is doing well in Majors as 10 of the last 13 winners at the WM Phoenix Open have also won either THE PLAYERS or a major championship, the exceptions being Detry, Taylor and Kevin Stadler in 2014. In addition to success at TPC Sawgrass, Memorial Park Golf Course which hosts the Houston Open, is ranked similarly close to TPC Scottsdale in tee-to-green difficulty.

Weather has not been an issue on the west coast so far this season and that will continue this week as conditions will be as good as it gets with mostly sunny skies all four days with temperatures between 81 and 83 degrees and very minimal wind. It is not one or two strengths that get it done but an all-around complete game that highlights Ball Striking and factors in Scrambling. It is not a birdie fest so hitting greens in regulation is pivotal and while SG: Putting (bermudagrass with poa trivialis/mix overseed) is important, it is not a top key stat.

Top three key categories this week:

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Scrambling
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25%  with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:

Si Woo Kim
Odds: Win 2,700 ~ Top Five 440 ~ Top Ten 210
Payout: Win 1,350.00 ~ Top Five 110.00 ~ Top Ten 52.50

It has been a red hot start for Si Woo as he has progressively gotten better with each event as he has gone T11, T6 and T2 and has been Schefflered and Rosed the last two weeks. He has made the cut in his last 10 starts with his worst finish being a T21 at the Genesis Championship while collecting four top fives. T21, T12, T23 and T26 in his last four starts in Phoenix and while those are not coming in with the same form. He has had great success at THE PLAYERS with a win and a T6 and in Houston with a T15 and T17. 

Brooks Koepka
Odds: Win 3,200 ~ Top Five 570 ~ Top Ten 305
Payout: Win 1,600.00 ~ Top Five 142.50 ~ Top Ten 76.25

Koepka made his return to the PGA Tour last week and while the result was not there as he finished T56, his game looks just fine. He finished T11 in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green but his issue was on the greens as he was -7.23 in Strokes Gained: Putting on the South Course which was dead last in the field. He went on a marathon practice session after Saturday and finished -0.31 on Sunday, a massive improvement. He has a pair of wins here as well as a T3 in his last start here in 2022. 

Maverick McNealy
Odds: Win 3,300 ~ Top Five 540 ~ Top Ten 260
Payout: Win 1,650.00 ~ Top Five 135.00 ~ Top Ten 65.00

McNealy opened with a 65 last week and coasted home with three straight 70s to post a solo tenth at the Farmers. He has missed two cuts in his last 14 starts dating back to last season while posting three top tens including a solo third and a T5. He has gained strokes in all five categories in both of his starts this season and has added distance while dialing in with his long irons. After having to withdraw in 2023, he has a T6 and a T9 the last two years in Phoenix. 

Matt Fitzpatrick
Odds: Win 4,800 ~ Top Five 720 ~ Top Ten 335
Payout: Win 2,400.00 ~ Top Five 180.00 ~ Top Ten 83.75

Fitz will be making his second PGA start of the season following a disappointing T63 at The American Express which has inflated his odds and keeping him under the radar. His late summer and fall finishes on the DP World Tour were outstanding as he made six starts and went T6, 5th, T5, T21, T32 and closed with a win at the DP World Tour Championship. He missed the cut here last year but has a T15 and a T10 in 2024 and 2022 respectively and looks to bounce back. 

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-10-15

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend.

Florida Atlantic 53, UAB 33

Florida Atlantic forced a three and out to open the game and went 64 yards in eight plays to take a 7-0 lead which was the first of four touchdowns in four possessions and the Trent Dilfer tenure was done before halftime. The Blazers punted on their first four possessions and the game was done two minutes into the second quarter. The Owls outgained UAB 482-329 and 7.4 to 4.8 despite going just 3-10 on third down but were helped out by the Blazers committing 15 penalties for 128 yards. 

Coastal Carolina 23, ULM 8

Coastal Carolina went 120 yards in its first two possessions but had to settle for a pair of field goals and it was a very inefficient first half before finding the endzone right before halftime for take a 16-0 lead into the break. The Warhawks punted on all six first half possessions and after scoring a touchdown early in the third quarter, the offense could do nothing the rest of the way. The Chanticleers only outgained UL Monroe 378-315 and 5.4 to 5.1 yppl but the Warhawks were 1-13 on third down.

Wyoming 35, San Jose State 28

San Jose St. jumped out to a 21-7 lead with the only Wyoming touchdown coming on a 73-yard punt return and the Spartans took a 14-point lead into halftime. After a scoreless third quarter filled with turnovers, the Cowboys cashed a turnover into a touchdown via interception and they scored two late touchdowns amassing 165 yards and the defense held. Wyoming outgained the Spartans 413-383 but ran 19 fewer plays and it had the yppl advantage 6.4 to 4.6. 

Texas A&M 34, Florida 17

Florida took the opening kickoff and went 75 yards in eight plays to take a 7-0 lead but Texas A&M scored touchdowns on its first three possessions consisting of drives of 75, 81 and 75 yards. The Aggies took a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter and scored 10 points off a missed fourth down conversion and a fumble from the Gators. Texas A&M outgained Florida 417-319 and 6.1 to 5.2 yppl as it went 9-17 on third down while the defense held the Gators to 1-10 on third down. 

Iowa 30, Wisconsin 0

Iowa opened the scoring with a 32-yard field goal then intercepted a pass and scored a touchdown three plays later and intercepted another pass two plays later and scored a touchdown on the next play. The Hawkeyes dominated the rest of the way with their defense to pitch the shutout. Iowa outgained the Badgers 319-209 and 5.2 to 3.7 yppl so it was far from dominating but the two early interceptions set the tone. The Hawkeyes did rush for 210 yards on 36 carries (5.8 ypc). 

USC 31, Michigan 13

USC took the opening kickoff and went 75 yards in 11 plays to take a 7-0 lead. The Wolverines went three and out on its first possession and despite running 11 plays on its second possession, it was forced to punt again but took its third possession 86 yards in 14 plays to tie the game. The Trojans then scored the next 17 points to put the game away. USC outgained Michigan 489-316 and 7.2 to 5.5 yppl while going 6-12 on third down and held the Wolverines to 2-9 on third down. 

Minnesota 27, Purdue 20

Purdue jumped out to a 10-0 lead and took a four-point lead into halftime and a third quarter field goal gave the Boilermakers a 20-13 lead going into the fourth quarter. The Gophers went 70 yards in 14 plays to tie the game and had an interception return for a touchdown on the next play to take the lead. Purdue was then stopped at the Minnesota seven-yard line with 1:56 left. Purdue outgained the Gophers 456-262 but were -3 in turnovers while going just 3-5 in the redzone. 

Georgia 20, Auburn 10

Auburn took the opening kickoff and went 75 yards in 14 plays to take a 7-0 lead. The Tigers forced a punt and went 70 yards but had to settle for a 24-yard field goal and then after a punt, they went 79 yards but fumbled at the Georgia one yard line. That motivation got the Georgia offense going as the Bulldogs scored in four of their next six possessions, the exceptions being a turnover on downs and a missed field goal. Georgia outgained Auburn 296-277 and 4.3 to 4.1 yppl. 

Clemson 41, Boston College 10

Clemson jumped ahead 10-0 and built a 17-3 lead before Boston College went 75 yards in 10 plays to cut the lead to seven points but then it was all Tigers after that. Clemson scored 17 points to close the first half to take a 34-10 lead into the break but it threw two interceptions to open the second half. The defense did the job not to let the Eagles back in the game and overall, the Tigers outgained Boston College 504-221 and 6.6 to 3.6 yppl but were sloppy with three turnovers. 

Texas Tech 42, Kansas 17

Texas Tech forced a punt on the opening possession of the game and threw a 71-yard touchdown pass on its first play from scrimmage. Kansas fumbled on its next play and the Red Raiders scored a second touchdown five plays later then built a 21-0 lead. Kansas did score 17 unanswered points to end the first half but Texas Tech owned the second half 21-0. The Red Raiders outgained Kansas 505-319 and 7.4 to 4.1 and they rushed for 372 yards on 40 carries (9.3 ypc).  

UTSA 61, Rice 13

UTSA took the opening kickoff and went 75 yards in five plays to take a 7-0 lead and Rice was able to move the ball on its first possession but had to settle for a field goal. The Roadrunners then scored the next 31 points before Rice tacked on a touchdown before halftime. UTSA opened the second half with two defensive touchdowns in the first seven plays and added a safety. The Roadrunners outgained Rice 437-269 and 7.4 to 3.9 yppl but the offense was just 4-10 on third down. 

LSU 20, South Carolina 10

LSU opened the scoring with a field goal following a Gamecocks fumble and South Carolina then missed a field goal. The Tigers then fumbled it back to South Carolina and scored three plays later on a 72-yard rushing touchdown. It was a tie game midway through the third quarter before LSU scored the final 10 points. The Tigers outgained South Carolina 420-317 and 6.7 to 4.4 yppl as it ran nine fewer plays but did have three turnovers. The Gamecocks committed 13 penalties. 

BYU 33, Arizona 27

BYU took a 14-0 lead before Arizona ran off 24 straight points, the last touchdown coming early in the fourth quarter. The Cougars then went 69 yards in 15 plays but had to settle for a 24-yard field goal and then forced a punt and went 47 yards to tie the game with 19 seconds remaining. Field goals were traded in the first overtime and in the second overtime, BYU scored and then the defense held. The Cougars outgained Arizona 430-383 and held the Wildcats to 4-17 on third down. 

Troy 48, Texas State 41

Texas St. opened up a 28-7 lead after the first quarter as it had two big touchdown plays of 59 and 62 yards. The Bobcats slowly let Troy back in the game as the Trojans scored on seven of their final eight possessions including the game tying touchdown with 1:13 remaining and the Bobcats missed a 42-yard field goal as time expired. Troy scored first in overtime before the Bobcats failed to convert a fourth and one. Texas St. outgained the Trojans 574-458 and 7.7 to 6.3 yppl. 

Boise State 41, New Mexico 25

Boise St. opened the scoring with a field goal and then added a touchdown to end the first quarter but New Mexico returned the ensuing kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. The Lobos forced a three and out and drove 58 yards for a touchdown but the Broncos went on a 31-3 run before New Mexico added a touchdown in garbage time. Boise St. outgained the Lobos 397-231 but had the ball for 21 more minutes while running 32 more plays and had just a 4.6 to 4.3 yppl advantage. 

Utah 42, Arizona State 10

After Utah scored a touchdown on its opening possession, Arizona St. went 54 yards in 16 plays and took over seven minutes off the clock but had to settle for a field goal. The Utes then scored the next 21 points before the Sun Devils added a touchdown but it was too late. Utah rushed for 276 yards on 42 carries (6.6 ypc) and overall the Utes outgained Arizona St. 412-273. They ran 23 fewer plays and outgained the Sun Devils 7.5 to 3.5 yppl and had only eight third downs. 

San Diego State 44, Nevada 10

San Diego St. had a 14-0 lead after the first quarter following touchdowns on a 75-yard punt return and a 45-yard interception return. The Aztecs added on 30 more points before taking the foot off the gas. Nevada scored all 10 points in garbage time in the fourth quarter. San Diego St. outgained the Wolf Pack 409-254 with 141 of those 254 yards for Nevada coming on those two scoring drives. The Aztecs held Nevada to 60 yards rushing on 33 carries (1.8 ypc). 

Hawaii 44, Utah State 26

It was a back and forth game with Hawaii taking the lead 27-26 near the end of the third quarter and then outscored the Aggies 17-0 in the fourth quarter. Utah St. scored one minute into the second half and then the offense fell apart as it finished with two punts, a turnover on downs, a fumble and an interception in its final eight possessions. Hawaii outgained the Aggies 546-435 but ran 17 more plays and the yppl was even at 6.6. The Aggies were 2-12 on third down.

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-10-14

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend.

James Madison 24, Louisiana 14

After a scoreless first quarter, Louisiana struck first with a six-play, 80-yard touchdown drive and then recovered a fumble two plays later but could not take advantage as it had a 51-yard field goal blocked. James Madison turned that into a touchdown but the Cajuns went 75 yards in three plays to take a 14-7 halftime lead. The Dukes scored on the first play of the second half and the defense clamped down. James Madison outgained Louisiana 477-288 and 5.9 to 5.1 yppl.

Ole Miss 24, Washington State 21

Mississippi was caught in an unexpected dogfight as Washington St. hit the scoreboard first late in the first quarter to take a 7-0 lead and the Rebels did not get into the endzone until 31 seconds remaining in the second quarter. The Cougars took the opening second half kickoff and went 75 yards in seven plays before Mississippi scored the next two touchdowns. The Rebels outgained Washington St. 439-345 but did run 11 more plays and they were hurt by eight penalties for 99 yards.

Eastern Michigan 16, NIU 10

The teams traded field goals in the first half with Eastern Michigan taking a 6-3 lead. Northern Illinois opened the scoring in the second half with an 80-yard touchdown run before the Eagles reclaimed the lead early in the fourth quarter. They intercepted a pass two plays later and tacked on a field goal and the Huskies were stopped on downs twice to end the game. Northern Illinois had only 252 yards besides that touchdown run and finished 4-16 in third down. The Eagles had only 296 yards of offense.

Kent State 42, UMass 6

Kent St. opened the game by returning the kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown and the Golden Flashes never looked back. They took a 21-6 lead into halftime so it was still a game but they forced a punt on the first Minutemen possession and went 80 yards in 14 plays for a touchdown and took advantage of a failed fourth down try and an interception to add two more scores. Kent St. outgained Massachusetts by only 330-271 but ran 20 fewer plays and had a 5.3 to 3.3 yppl advantage.

Notre Dame 36, NC State 7

Notre Dame forced a punt to open the game and went 58 yards in six plays to go ahead 7-0. The Wolf Pack responded to open the second quarter with an 11-play, 83-yard drive before Notre Dame kicked a field goal right before the half. The Irish then took over as after punting on its first possession, it scored on four of its next five possessions. Notre Dame outgained the Wolfpack 485-233 and 6.8 to 3.9 yppl. The last four NC State possessions resulted in three interceptions and a safety.

Marshall 48, Old Dominion 24

Marshall opened the scoring with a 22-yard interception return and after a Thundering Herd missed field goal, Old Dominion tied the game on a 71-yard touchdown pass. It was all Marshall after that as it went on a 41-3 run before the Monarchs added a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. Old Dominion was outgained by only 445-439 but 155 of its yards were those last two touchdown drives. Additionally, it lost the turnover battle 3-0 that led to 21 points for the Thundering Herd.

Western Michigan 42, Ball State 0

Western Michigan turned it over on downs inside the Cardinals redzone on its first possession but then scored touchdowns on its next three possessions and the rout was on. The Broncos were far from perfect as besides the fourth down miss, they had a missed field goal and a one play interception. Western Michigan outgained the Cardinals 461-88 and 6.3 to 1.8 yppl as it forced 10 punts with Ball St. converting only one third down and it crossed midfield only once.

Appalachian State 41, Georgia State 20

Appalachian St. opened up a 17-0 lead at halftime which eventually became 31-0 and the Mountaineers coasted the rest of the way. They were outscored 20-10 after that as the Panthers offense finally got going with three touchdown drives of 75 yards each which added some fluff yardage. Appalachian St. outgained Georgia Southern 435-381 on 10 fewer plays which made it 5.9 to 4.9 yppl. The Mountaineers punted on four of their first five possessions but did not punt after that.

UNLV 51, Air Force 48

The Rebels did it again with another late win to remain undefeated. Air Force was able to build an 11-point lead late in the second quarter but UNLV went on a 16-0 run and then it was back and forth and after the Falcons went up 48-44 with 1:13 remaining, the Rebels went 75 yards on six plays in 37 seconds for the game winning touchdown. Air Force outgained the Rebels 603-597 but ran 23 more plays thanks to a 14-minute clock edge and UNLV took the yppl 10.0 to 7.3.

Kansas State 41, TCU 28

The Wildcats spotted TCU and 7-0 lead and then ran off 28 straight points that included a 15-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown and a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Horned Frogs never got it below 14 points until the end of the game on a garbage touchdown. The two defensive touchdowns were the difference as TCU outgained the Wildcats 448-343 and 6.5 to 4.8 yppl and another interception led to a touchdown and they committed eight penalties.

Colorado 24, Iowa State 17

Colorado scored at the end of the first quarter to take a 7-0 lead but Iowa St. scored the only 10 points in the second quarter to lead at the half. The Cyclones retook the lead after the Buffaloes took it back two plays into the second half but Colorado finished on a 10-0 run. Iowa St. outgained Colorado 441-395 and 6.3 to 6.2 yppl but the Cyclones went just 2-12 on third down and had a questionable decision to go for it on their own 18-yard line with 7:13 left and missed it.

Wake Forest 39, Oregon State 14

Wake Forest took the opening kickoff and went 60 yards in just three plays to take a 7-0 lead which was eventually extended to 32-0 after three quarters. The Demon Deacons had a yardage edge of 358-211 through the three quarters as Oregon St. missed a field goal, had two turnovers and turned it over on downs which accounted for 148 of those 211 yards. Overall, Wake Forest outgained the Beavers 468-309 and it ran 26 fewer plays and had a 8.7 to 3.9 yppl advantage.

Georgia Tech 35, Virginia Tech 20

Georgia Tech opened up an 18-0 lead which turned into 21-7 at halftime but the Hokies took the second half kickoff and went 75 yards in nine plays to make it a one possession game. The Yellow Jackets put up two more touchdowns to put them away before a late garbage Virginia Tech touchdown. Georgia Tech outgained the Hokies 481-367 but did run 11 more plays so it only had a 7.3 to 6.7 yppl advantage but Virginia Tech committed 10 penalties and was 0-8 on third down.

Texas 23, Oklahoma 6

Oklahoma opened up a 6-0 lead early in the second quarter at which time Texas had only 22 yards of offense and had a missed field goal in there following an interception. The Longhorns finally got on the board with a field goal and then took over in the second half. They scored on their first two second half possessions and three of four that included another missed field goal. Texas outgained the Sooners 302-258 and 4.9 to 3.7 yppl and it went 10-17 on third down.

Northwestern 22, Penn State 21

Northwestern had the only points in the first quarter as it used a 7:23 drive in 12 plays but it resulted in just a 27-yard field goal. It was a back and forth game the whole way and it was Penn St. that took a 21-16 lead with 10:50 left in the fourth quarter. The Wildcats then went 75 yards in 11 plays to retake the lead with 4:51 left and Penn St. could not get a first down after and never got the ball back. Northwestern outgained Penn St. 282-274 but was outgained 5.4 to 4.1 in yppl.

Nebraska 34, Maryland 31

This was a game of runs as Nebraska opened with a 10-0 lead, Maryland responded with 14 points, Nebraska responded 14 points, Maryland responded with 17 points including an interception return for a touchdown and Nebraska scored the final 10 points including the winning touchdown with 1:08 remaining. The Huskers outgained Maryland 453-379 and 7.7 to 5.7 yppl as it ran eight fewer plays but lost the turnover battle 3-0 with three interceptions. Maryland had eight penalties for 100 yards.

Indiana 30, Oregon 20

Indiana opened the scoring with a field goal and after the teams traded punts, Oregon went 51 yards in three plays to take a 7-3 lead. The Hoosiers took the ensuing kickoff and went 75 yards on nine plays in 5:00 to take a 10-7 lead and they never trailed again. Oregon tied it up three different times and Indiana put the game away with 2:06 left on a 22-yard field goal. Indiana outgained the Ducks 326-267 and 4.8 to 4.2 yppl with the Hoosiers going 5-14 on third down and the Ducks just 3-14.

Navy 32, Temple 31

The Midshipmen got on the board first on a 50-yard touchdown pass but Temple scored the next 17 points, its first of two 10-point leads. The Owls blew the second one with 6:34 left in the fourth quarter but they went 75 yards on 11 plays in 5:18 to take a 31-24 lead. Navy then went 75 yards in 37 seconds to score and made the two-point conversion and the Owls ran out of time. Temple outgained Navy 518-384 but ran 22 more plays and was outgained 7.1 to 6.8 yppl.

Tennessee 34, Arkansas 31

Arkansas opened the scoring after taking the opening kickoff 75 yards on nine plays in 4:50 for a 7-0 lead and it was back and forth with the Razorbacks holding a 17-10 lead. The Volunteers then scored 24 unanswered points before Arkansas cut it back to 10 points and then to three points with 2:55 left but never got the ball back. The yardage differential was only nine yet Tennessee outgained Arkansas 7.5 to 6.5 but was hurt by 10 penalties with Arkansas committing just one.

Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-10-14

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend.

Missouri State 22, Middle Tennessee 20

This was a back and forth game throughout that ended up coming down to the kicking game. Missouri St. took a two-point lead with 4:45 remaining and the Blue Raiders followed by driving 44 yards to set up a possible game winning field goal with under a minute left but the 52-yard attempt was no good. The yardages were nearly dead even at 353-348 as were the yppl averages at 5.2 to 5.3 but the Bears had the edge in the redzone at 5-5 with Middle Tennessee going 1-1.

Liberty 19, UTEP 8

Liberty snapped a four-game losing streak but it was not the most dominating victory. The Flames defense did its job as it held UTEP to 167 yards and nine first downs with 65 of those yards coming on its touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Liberty did gain 403 yards on offense but it had the ball for over 20 more minutes while running 31 more plays and it averaged just 4.9 yppl. The Flames were just 3-18 on third down which killed possessions and led to four field goals.

Kennesaw State 35, Louisiana Tech 7

Kennesaw St. has already doubled its win total from last season with four. The Owls spotted Louisiana Tech a 7-0 lead in the first quarter and then went off for 35 unanswered points. Kennesaw St. outgained the Bulldogs 400-305 but ran 12 fewer plays and won the yppl 6.3 to 4.1. Louisiana Tech had its chances in the second half as it got into Owls territory three times including the seven-yard line and one-yard line but failed on fourth down twice and threw an interception.  

Tulane 26, East Carolina 19

Tulane dominated the first half as it outgained the Pirates 235-81 and pitched a shutout but had to settle for four field goals on offense. East Carolina was able to generate some offense in the second half as it had four scoring drives but two resulted in field goals. Tulane put the game away with two touchdown drives on its last two possessions including the game winner with 35 seconds left. The Green Wave ran 11 fewer plays and still won the yards 458-340 and the yppl at 7.4 to 4.7.

Jacksonville State 29, Sam Houston 27

The Gamecocks had a pair of 10-point leads early but Sam Houston used a pair of long drives to take a 21-17 lead midway through the third quarter. Jacksonville St. retook the lead early in the fourth quarter but the Bearkats scored with 52 second left to take a one point lead. The Gamecocks then went 48 yards and kicked the 52-yard game winner as time expired. Jacksonville St. won the yards 499-286 but ran 28 more plays which led to a lesser 6.2 to 5.5 yppl advantage.

Southern Miss 38, Georgia Southern 35

It was a shootout in Statesboro but Southern Mississippi controlled the game. The Eagles jumped ahead 7-0 late in the first quarter but the Golden Eagles scored 28 unanswered points and it never got close until the end. Georgia Southern scored a touchdown late in the fourth quarter after recovering a fumble and then forced a punt and drove down to make it a three-point game but never got the ball back. The Eagles were hurt with three interceptions and 12 penalties for 104 yards.

USF 63, North Texas 36

The teams traded touchdowns in the first half to make it a 21-21 game at halftime and then South Florida took over. The Bulls got the second half kickoff and went 75 yards in four plays, picked off a pass three plays later and went 15 yards in two plays and then recovered a fumble for a touchdown four plays after that and it was game over. South Florida outgained the Mean Green 580-443 including 306-107 yards rushing (5.4 to 3.7 ypc). North Texas finished with five turnovers.

Washington 38, Rutgers 19

Rutgers got the opening kickoff and went 75 yards in four plays and after a Washington missed field goal, it tacked on a field goal for a 10-0 lead. The Scarlet Knights then forced a punt and could have gotten more points but missed a 45-yard field goal. The Huskies got it to three points at halftime and then took over in the second half as it scored four straight touchdowns. Washington outgained Rutgers 579-493 but ran 18 fewer plays and had a 9.8 to 6.4 yppl edge but did have nine penalties.

Colorado State 49, Fresno State 21

Colorado St. jumped ahead 21-0 and never looked back. The Rams scored touchdowns on their first four possessions while gaining 266 yards but the offense could not keep it up as they had three and outs in their next five possessions. Fresno St. did get it to 14 points but Colorado St. tacked on two late touchdowns. The Bulldogs actually outgained the Rams 469-334 but ran 27 more plays and were outgained just 6.3 to 5.9 in yppl. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 and had 13 penalties for 117 yards.

Cincinnati 20, UCF 11

The Bearcats pitched a shutout for most of the first half until Central Florida got a field goal with 27 seconds remaining. The Knights did not get its touchdown until garbage time at 2:17 when the score was 20-3 as they went 90 yards in 19 plays. Central Florida did outgain Cincinnati 419-306 but held the ball for nearly 20 more minutes while running 42 more plays and it was outgained 6.4 to 4.6 yppl. The Knights were stopped on downs three times and fumbled, all in Cincinnati territory.

Army 24, Charlotte 7

It was complete Army domination as it outgained Charlotte 354-178 including 304-68 yards rushing (4.8 to 2.3 ypc). The Black Knights had the ball for nearly 16 more minutes because of that huge rushing advantage. It could have been worse but there was a fumble in the first half while turning it over on downs and missing two field goals on three straight second half possessions. Charlotte avoided the shutout with a touchdown with eight seconds left, accounting for 59 of its 178 yards.

Miami (Ohio) 20, Akron 7

This was an ugly first half that featured just a field goal for scoring, five punts, a missed field goal, two interceptions and a turnover on downs. Miami got inside the Akron 30-yard line on all five second half possessions as it scored 17 points but missed on fourth down once and ended the game at the Zips five-yard line. The RedHawks outgained Akron just 350-273 and 5.2 to 4.3 yppl as they finished just 4-12 on third down which killed drives and the Zips had 10 penalties for 60 yards.

Ohio State 34, Illinois 16

Ohio St. jumped ahead 20-0 as it scored on four of its first five possessions and while Illinois scored on the opening possession of the second half, the Buckeyes went 63 yards to get the touchdown back and then recovered a fumble two plays later and tacked on another touchdown. Illinois did outgain Ohio St. 295-272 with the yppl even at 4.2 but it was just 4-14 on third down and turned it over on downs twice. Additionally, the Illini lost the turnover battle 3-0 and held to 1.7 ypc rushing.

UCLA 38, Michigan State 13

UCLA spotted Michigan St. a 7-0 lead and then took over with 38 unanswered points to blow the game open. The Bruins punted on their first possession and then scored on six of their next seven possessions, the only non-score being a 34-yard missed field goal. The Spartans only other touchdown came late in the third quarter when the game was already decided. The Bruins outgained Michigan St. 418-253 and 6.2 to 4.2 yppl while controlling the clock for nearly 13 minutes more.

Alabama 27, Missouri 24

The Tigers took the opening kickoff 78 yards in six plays to take a 7-0 lead before Alabama scored on its first three possessions to take a 17-7 lead. Missouri was able to tie it up before the Crimson Tide took a two-possession lead with 3:16 remaining and Missouri could not catch them. The Tigers won the yardage battle 330-325 but ran 19 fewer plays and outgained Alabama 5.9 to 4.3 in yppl. A pair of second half interceptions did not help and Missouri was just 1-10 on third down.

Pitt 34, Florida State 31

This game was back and forth throughout and Florida St. took a three-point lead going into the fourth quarter. The Panthers took advantage of a Seminoles fumble to get a field goal and tie the game and then forced a pair of punts to score 10 points. Florida St. made it a three-point game with 1:45 left but Pittsburgh got the onside kick and ran out the clock. The Panthers outgained Florida St. 476-415 but had eight more plays and the yppl were 6.7 to 6.6 and benefitted going 3-3 on fourth down.

SMU 34, Stanford 10

SMU jumped ahead 17-0 and never led by less than two touchdowns the rest of the way. The Mustangs outgained Stanford by only 369-353 but ran 20 fewer plays and won the yppl 6.8 to 4.8 as they had the ball 13 minutes less. They used two huge plays for two touchdowns as they had an 87-yard touchdown run in the second quarter and a 96-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter which made it a 21-point lead as opposed to a possible one possession game.

Houston 39, Oklahoma State 17

Oklahoma St. took the opening kickoff 75 yards to take a 7-0 lead and the game was tied at 10-10 early in the second quarter before Houston took over. The Cougars scored on six of their final seven possessions not counting the drive to end the game while the defense did not allow the Cowboys to cross midfield on six straight possessions until a garbage time touchdown. Houston had the ball for 13 more minutes and outgained the Cowboys 485-225 but did have 28 more plays.

Bowling Green 28, Toledo 23

Toledo jumped ahead 21-0 in the second quarter and it could have been worse as the Rockets turned it over on downs twice inside the Bowling Green redzone. The Falcons then scored 28 unanswered points as they did not allow Toledo to cross midfield on its first seven possessions of the second half. The Rockets were driving for a possible tying touchdown but threw an interception at the 32-yard line. Toledo outgained the Falcons 429-226 but had 13 penalties and were 3-13 on third down. 

Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-10-09

ROCKETMAN SPORTS NFL POWER RATINGS Week 6

We will be looking to fade some of the top teams here and play on some of the bottom teams.

Detroit 31.47

Houston 28.87

Indianapolis 28.51

Kansas City 27.15

Denver 26.58

Washington 25.62

Buffalo 24.94

Philadelphia 24.93

Seattle 23.99

Minnesota 23.70

New England 23.70

Green Bay 23.32

Jacksonville 22.68

LA Rams 21.89

Tampa Bay 21.47

San Francisco 20.35

LA Chargers 19.71

Pittsburgh 19.32

Chicago 18.15

Dallas 18.01

Atlanta 17.53

Baltimore 16.95

Arizona 16.90

Carolina 15.18

Cleveland 15.11

NY Giants 13.03

Miami 12.88

New Orleans 12.78

Las Vegas 12.11

Cincinnati 11.72

NY Jets 10.89

Tennessee 10.54

 

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Author: Rocky Atkinson
Published: 2025-10-02

ROCKETMAN SPORTS NFL POWER RATINGS Week 5

We will be looking to fade some of the top teams here and play on some of the bottom teams.

Detroit 31.47

Kansas City 28.15

Buffalo 25.94

Philadelphia 25.93

Denver 25.58

Seattle 24.99

Baltimore 23.95

Minnesota 23.7

Indianapolis 23.51

Green Bay 23.32

LA Rams 22.89

LA Chargers 22.71

New England 22.7

Washington 22.62

Houston 21.87

Jacksonville 21.68

Tampa Bay 20.47

Pittsburgh 19.32

Arizona 18.90

Chicago 18.15

Atlanta 17.53

Las Vegas 17.11

NY Giants 16.03

Dallas 16.01

Carolina 15.18

Cleveland 15.11

NY Jets 12.89

Miami 12.88

Cincinnati 11.72

New Orleans 9.78

Tennessee 8.54

 

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Author: Matt Fargo
Published: 2025-10-01

Fargo looks past the top line scores and goes deep into the box scores to get a better picture of what really happened for all of the FBS games the past weekend.

Old Dominion 21, Liberty 7

The first half could not have gone worse for Liberty as a promising 54-yard kickoff return to open the game resulted in a missed field goal and the other five possessions not counting the end of the half drive consisted of three punts, a fumble and an interception while gaining 36 yards total. Old Dominion had turnovers in two of its first three possessions but then scored touchdowns on back-to-back drives and that is all it needed. The Monarchs won the yards 489-210 and 6.9 to 3.8 yppl.

Kennesaw State 24, Middle Tennessee 16

Middle Tennessee fumbled on the second play of the game, the Owls scored three plays later, forced a punt and went 87 yards for another touchdown and eventually built a 21-3 at the end of the first quarter. The Blue Raiders got it to 21-16 early in the fourth quarter and after a Kennesaw St. field goal, Middle Tennessee had two chances but was stopped on fourth down twice. Middle Tennessee ran 28 more plays and outgained the Owls 460-334 but was outgained 6.5 to 5.8 yppl.

WKU 27, Missouri State 22

Missouri St. struck first with a field goal after the opening kickoff and after falling behind 10-3, the Bears scored on three of four possessions between the second and third quarters to take a 16-10 lead. Western Kentucky then scored 17 points on three straight possessions totaling 219 yards and was able to run out the clock after another Bears touchdown that cut it to five points. The Hilltoppers outgained Missouri St. 476-414 but were guilty of nine penalties for 94 yards.

Memphis 55, Florida Atlantic 26

It was back and forth for a while with Florida Atlantic taking the lead late in the second quarter before Memphis took a one point advantage into halftime. It was a five-point game after three quarters and the Tigers then went off with a 31-7 fourth quarter. They were helped by three missed fourth down conversions from the Owls. Memphis outgained Florida Atlantic 487-397 despite running 15 fewer plays and had a 7.5 to 5.0 yppl advantage. The Owls finished with 10 penalties.

Southern Miss 42, Jacksonville State 25

After a punt on its opening possession, Southern Mississippi forced a fumble on the Gamecocks first play of the game and then went 25 yards on four plays and scored on its next possession to take a 14-0 lead that eventually turned into a 28-3 advantage late in the third quarter. The Golden Eagles were outscored 22-14 the rest of the way but were never threatened. Jacksonville St. scored a couple late meaningless touchdowns that gave them the yardage edge 390-377 while going -3 in turnovers.

Iowa State 39, Arizona 14

The Cyclones were never in danger as they jumped ahead 22-0 taking advantage of a missed field goal and an interception, the latter that led to a short field. Iowa St. scored touchdowns on its first two second half possessions and the offense let up following that after a 36-7 lead. Arizona was only outgained 399-360 and 5.8 to 5.0 yppl but went just 5-16 on third and fourth down and found the redzone only three times, converting twice while Iowa St. was 6-7 inside the redzone.

Virginia Tech 23, NC State 21

It was a pair of punts to open the game before Virginia Tech struck first with a field goal and then the Wolfpack took the lead on the next possession. The Hokies tacked on the only 10 points of the second quarter and had the lead until early in the fourth quarter until NC State went 75 yards to take the lead by one. The Hokies kicked a 49-yard field goal to get it back and forced a punt and a fourth down stop to end the game. Virginia Tech outgained the Wolfpack 406-299 and 6.2 to 4.5 yppl.

Boise State 47, Appalachian State 14

Boise St. jumped ahead 21-0 as it went 75 yards in 10 plays on its opening possession for a touchdown, returned an interception 26 yards for a touchdown and then put together an 80-yard drive for another score and never looked back. The Broncos ended the scoring with a 33-yard interception return for a touchdown which put a close on a 4-0 turnover edge. Boise St. had the ball for over 16 more minutes while outgaining the Mountaineers 473-184 and holding them to nine first downs.

Washington State 20, Colorado State 3

Colorado St. got the opening kickoff and put together a 33-yard drive that resulted in a 50-yard field goal and that was it for the offense because of miscues. The Rams got inside the Cougars 30-yard line four times but fumbled, turned it over on downs and missed two field goals. Washington St. scored on four of its first five possessions and was shut out in the second half but it did not matter. Colorado St. outgained the Cougars 347-334 and 5.7 to 5.1 yppl but those mistakes did them in.

Oregon 30, Penn State 24

It was all about defense in the first half as Penn St. and Oregon traded second quarter field goals and then it was the Ducks that put together two drives of 75 and 80 yards to take a 17-3 lead. Penn St. came right back and got a touchdown on the first possession after the second Oregon score then forced a punt and went 62 yards in 15 plays to tie the game with 15 seconds left. They traded overtime scores and then Oregon picked off Penn St. after it scored a second overtime touchdown.

Alabama 24, Georgia 21

Alabama opened up a 7-0 lead that it increased to 14-0 in the second quarter and it was never tied or trailed in the game. The Tide had a 10-point lead at halftime and the Bulldogs cut it to three points midway through the third quarter and while they got three more possessions, they could not cash in with a missed fourth down conversion at the Alabama 11-yard line being the difference. Georgia was outgained by 40 yards but ran 24 fewer plays and won the yppl 6.7 to 5.2.

Missouri 42, UMass 6

Missouri forced a three and out on the first Massachusetts possession and put together a 68-yard drive for a touchdown and after another three and out, the Tigers were intercepted which the Minutemen took advantage of on a 21-yard touchdown drive. Then it was game over as Missouri closed with a 35-0 run and it was dominant throughout as the Tigers outgained Massachusetts 521-124 and 6.2 to 2.3 yppl. They controlled over 17 minutes of the clock and committed just one penalty.

Stanford 30, San Jose State 29

Stanford took the opening kickoff and put together an 81-yard drive on 11 plays in 7:12 to take a 7-0 lead and it was back and forth through halftime. San Jose St. took a 12-point lead early in the fourth quarter and led by eight points before the Cardinal cut it to five points and forced a punt which they responded with an 80-yard, 12-play possession to take the lead with 19 seconds remaining. The Spartans outgained Stanford 524-481 and 7.3 to 7.0 yppl but two missed field goals took away 125 yards.

South Carolina 35, Kentucky 13

Kentucky went 65 yards on its opening possession to take a 7-0 lead and the Gamecocks responded with a 75-yard drive to tie the game. The Wildcats grabbed the lead back on a 76-yard drive but had to settle for a 27-yard field goal and then the South Carolina defense took over. The Gamecocks scored on a 41-yard fumble return and two plays later scored on a 45-yard interception return. The Gamecocks outgained Kentucky 341-232 while going 8-15 on third down and were +4 in turnovers.

Louisiana 54, Marshall 51

Marshall had a 34-17 lead midway through the third quarter which included an interception returned for a touchdown but Louisiana scored 17 unanswered points to tie it. The teams traded touchdowns in the final minute to force overtime where the Thundering Herd had to settle for a field goal and let the Cajuns score the final touchdown. Marshall outgained Louisiana 503-461 but with just a 6.4 to 6.2 yppl advantage and committed 12 penalties for 102 yards while the Cajuns had one penalty.

Louisiana Tech 30, UTEP 11

Louisiana Tech had a 10-0 lead through three quarters and UTEP was able to get it down to a one possession game with a field goal early in the fourth quarter. The Miners then recovered a fumble at the Louisiana Tech 38-yard line but tossed an interception two plays later that was returned for a touchdown. The Bulldogs closed the scoring with another pick six and in the end they were actually outgained 273-232 and 3.7 to 3.4 yppl but benefitted from five total interceptions from their defense.

BYU 24, Colorado 21

Colorado took an early 14-0 lead as it scored on its first two possessions that accumulated 137 yards. BYU then ran off 17 straight points to take the lead late in the fourth quarter but the Buffaloes responded on their next possession as they went 75 yards on six plays to retake the lead. The Cougars came right back and got the three-point advantage back early in the fourth quarter and held Colorado to nine yards on its final three possessions. BYU outgained Colorado 387-291 and 6.0 to 5.5 yppl.