Winning Cappers
Jeff Hochman
        Now in year #24, Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline has become one of the most successful and well-respected handicappers in the entire Nation. Jeff is also a published sports writer, covering everything from Football to Horse Racing.

Jeff has his selections documented by the The Sports Monitor of OK. During that time, he has accumulated numerous seasonal titles in all the major sports including NHL Hockey. Jeff is your 2005-06 NBA Handicapping Champion at The Sports Monitor of OK and has over 25 Top 25 rankings in his career. Jeff is now an 8-time documented NHL Handicapping Champion after finishing No. 1 in win percentage and net profit in 2019-20. Jeff was ranked No. 2 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor of OK in 2014, No. 3 in 2017 and No. 3 in 2018, and No. 1 in 2019. Jeff was ranked #3 in MLB last season. Check out the rest of Jeff's documented records at The Sports Monitor of OK and the Sports Watch Monitor! 
 
Jeff isn't just a football expert though, as his Hockey, Baseball, Basketball, and are also highly respected. Nowhere else on the internet will you find free picks and top-rated picks from one of the finest documented sports handicappers in the nation.

Jeff is also the former Odds Manger for Picks Pal. This is not a hobby of mine! It's my business and I take it very seriously.

Making money in this business is all about money management and of course picking winners. I rate my selections 3 units, 4 units, 5 units, and top-rated 10 unit plays in the NFL, College Football, NHL, NBA/College Hoops, and MLB. All 5 unit plays are considered Best Bets. My Games of the Month and Year will always be graded as Top-rated 10 unit Gems. Example-- If you play $100 per unit and the line is -120, on a 3 unit play you would risk $360 to win $300.
 
Period:
Picks:

Jeff Hochman - All Sports 2022
SportWinsLosses  WCR    ROIWin%
    NFL3   3     20.8   830.00   50 %    
    NCAAF1   0     100.0   400.00   100 %    
    NBA6   6     0.0   -155.00   50 %    
    NCAAB7   12     0.0   -3634.00   37 %    
    MLB5   6     0.0   -1086.00   45 %    
    NHL24   21     7.7   1516.00   53 %    
    WNBA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    CFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    USFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    MMA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    BOXING0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NASCAR0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    SOCCER0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
        TOTALS46   48     0.0   -2129.00   49 %    

Additional Statistics For 2022

Jeff Hochman

        Now in year #24, Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline has become one of the most successful and well-respected handicappers in the entire Nation. Jeff is also a published sports writer, covering everything from Football to Horse Racing.

Jeff has his selections documented by the The Sports Monitor of OK. During that time, he has accumulated numerous seasonal titles in all the major sports including NHL Hockey. Jeff is your 2005-06 NBA Handicapping Champion at The Sports Monitor of OK and has over 25 Top 25 rankings in his career. Jeff is now an 8-time documented NHL Handicapping Champion after finishing No. 1 in win percentage and net profit in 2019-20. Jeff was ranked No. 2 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor of OK in 2014, No. 3 in 2017 and No. 3 in 2018, and No. 1 in 2019. Jeff was ranked #3 in MLB last season. Check out the rest of Jeff's documented records at The Sports Monitor of OK and the Sports Watch Monitor! 
 
Jeff isn't just a football expert though, as his Hockey, Baseball, Basketball, and are also highly respected. Nowhere else on the internet will you find free picks and top-rated picks from one of the finest documented sports handicappers in the nation.

Jeff is also the former Odds Manger for Picks Pal. This is not a hobby of mine! It's my business and I take it very seriously.

Making money in this business is all about money management and of course picking winners. I rate my selections 3 units, 4 units, 5 units, and top-rated 10 unit plays in the NFL, College Football, NHL, NBA/College Hoops, and MLB. All 5 unit plays are considered Best Bets. My Games of the Month and Year will always be graded as Top-rated 10 unit Gems. Example-- If you play $100 per unit and the line is -120, on a 3 unit play you would risk $360 to win $300.
Period:
Picks:

Jeff Hochman - All Sports 2022
SportWinsLosses  WCR    ROIWin%
    NFL3   3     20.8   830.00   50 %    
    NCAAF1   0     100.0   400.00   100 %    
    NBA6   6     0.0   -155.00   50 %    
    NCAAB7   12     0.0   -3634.00   37 %    
    MLB5   6     0.0   -1086.00   45 %    
    NHL24   21     7.7   1516.00   53 %    
    CFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    USFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    WNBA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NASCAR0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    SOCCER0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
        TOTALS46   48     0.0   -2129.00   49 %    

Additional Statistics For 2022

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Jeff's 2022 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-06-08

Jeff's 2022 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Selection (Race 11)


Saturday, June 11th @ 6:45 PM E


#6 Mo Donegal (5/2) to Win & Place


This 3-year old colt by Uncle Mo is bred for this distance more than any other horse in the field. Past five years in all dirt routes (excluding all weather tracks), the progeny of Uncle Mo win 20%, and finish in-the-money 50% of the time. Strong. The Dam is Callingmissbrown. She's had one runner make it to the track with three wins in five starts (60%). Mo Donegal broke his maiden at Belmont Park and also has a third place finish at what they call Big Sandy. He seems to like the track and we get Irad Ortiz who has a lot of experience at this track. Rich Strike is off my ticket. Improving speed figures in six straight races, with just one win to show for it. Also, jockey Sonny Leon has never raced at Belmont Park and he's 0-for-7 in all 12 furlong races (dirt and turf). Rich Strike always raced well at Churchill Downs (broke maiden by 17 1/4 lengths), but today will be a completely different experience. Hopefully, we can get 7/2 or better!


Play #6 Mo Donegal (5/2) to Win & Place


Late Pick 4 or Late Pick 5 players:  (#1 We the People, #3 Nest, #5 Creative Minister, #6 Mo Donegal)


twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-05-18

Jeff's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Selection (Race 13) #5 Early Voting (7/2) Win & Place I have been on the Epicenter bandwagon, picking him to win his past three races. At 6/5 and two week turnaround, I'm jumping off after his career-best 105 Equibase speed figure. Chad Brown skipped the Kentucky Derby to train this 3-year colt by Gun Runner and specifically point to this race. Early Voting finished second by a nose to Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 9th at Aqueduct. Mo Donegal came back to run well in the Kentucky Derby and should be one of your favorites in the Belmont Stakes. Not sold on the filly Secret Oath, coming back after 15 days while sporting a dosage over 8. Early Voting is fresh, with improving speed figures in all three career starts. Chad Brown wins 27% with horses returning from 1-2 month layoff. I really like this new shooter quite a bit! Twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's Top 5 Kentucky Derby Win Contenders

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-05-03

Here are my Top 5 win contenders (in no paticular order) for Saturday's Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. 

 

 

#3 Epicenter (7/2), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Joel Rosario

 

After finishing sixth at first asking, this 3-year old son of Not This Time has been first or second in all five starts (4-1-0) with career earnings of $1,010,640. Has posted four straight 97 Equibase speed figures and still has room to improve. Easily won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in front-running fashion in his final prep. I don't think the extra distance will be a problem. The progeny of Not This Time are winning 23% (+6% ROI) in all dirt routes over the past five years. Looks like rain Friday and than not as heavy on Saturday. Epicenter has a win on an off track at Churchill Downs. Major player & my top pick. See below.

 

 

#6 Messier (8/1), trained by Tim Yakteen & ridden by John Velazquez

 

Previously trained by Bob Baffert. You know the story. Finished second by 2 1/4 lengths in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, earning a solid 99 Equibase speed figure. The horse that finishes second in the Santa Anita Derby usually outruns his odds in this race. Has finished first or second in all six career starts, earning $435,600. That's hard to ignore. Has never run at Churchill Downs and nary a start on a wet track. Win Contender!  

 

 

#10 Zandon (3/1), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Flavien Prat

 

Has finished in-the-money all four career starts (2-1-1) with earnings of $713,000. Zandon broke his maiden at first asking in a MSW race at Belmont Park and than race second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. This 3-year old colt by Upstart made his 2022 debut running second in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds than shipped to Keeneland to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass on an off track listed as good. He earned a career-best 107 Equibase speed figure and owns the fastest late-pace speed figure of the bunch (120.5). Naturally, a bounce could happen but this horse is very talented and Brown/Prat combo win 27% together. Zandon has a sustained running style and must navigate through traffic turning for home. Prat is one of the best at his craft and is no stranger winning grade 1 races. Win Contender!

 

 

#12 Taiba (12/1), trained by Tim Yakteen & ridden by Mike Smith

 

Moved to the Yakteen barn just like Messier so they could earn points for this race. If you like Messier, than you have to like this son of Gun Runner, who are bred to run all day and all night. Two wins from two career starts, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby earning a 102 Equibase speed figure. Should be on or near the lead with a clean break. Owns the fastest early pace (114.7), fastest middle pace (103.2), and 7th fastest late speed figure (101). No starts on an off track is a concern. Also, Taiba has only run in California and didn't start as a 2-year old. Since 1937, the record of horses in the Kentucky Derby without a race at age two is 0-for-58 since. UGH! Maybe this angle is due to lose. "Money" Mike Smith got that nickname for a reason. Win Contender! 

 

 

#5 Smile Happy (20/1), trained by Kenneth McPeek & ridden by Cory Lanerie

 

Why is this horse 20/1? Certainty has the bloodlines to win this type of race. This 3-year old son by Run Happy (maybe you heard of him) has been first or second in all four career starts (2-2-0) with earnings of $549,810. Smile Happy broke his maiden in his first start at Keeneland last October and followed with a win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. He made his 2022 debut finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds. Finished 2nd to Zandon in the Grade 2 Blue Grass in his final prep, earning a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure. He's live here and his chances go way up on a wet track. If the track is wet, you will want to play this horse across-the-board. The Dam (Pleasant Smile) has produced numerous winners (5-for-56) on off tracks, and we know the Run Happy horses have embraced wet tracks. His works in the morning have been eye-popping and should be rolling late. Owns the 3rd fastest late-pace speed figure (111.5) in the field. Live Longshot!

 

 

How to bet the 2022 Kentucky Derby:

 

Play #3 Epicenter (7/2) to Win, Place, and Show

 

Play #6 Messier (8/1) to Place and Show

 

Play #5 Smile Happy (20/1) to Show 

 

$0.50 Trifecta Box (3, 5, 6, 10, 12)

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-31

Saturday, April 1st (7:35 PM E)


Grade 1 Arkansas Derby (Race 12)


 

#9 We the People (7/2) across-the-board


This son by Constitution has two wins from two starts at Oaklawn Park. Owns the fastest middle pace speed figure (97.4) and the fastest late pace (113.5) in this field. Will need a clean break to establish position into the first turn. That will be key from the #9 post. Flavien Prat could have rode Doppelganger. Maybe he knows something. His past three works over this track (Oaklawn Park) have been eye-opening. I believe this horse will take another step forward and be a major factor at a decent price.


twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-25

Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes 


Saturday, March 26th (4:00 PM PT)


Santa Anita Race Track (Race 7)  


 

Play #9 Carpe Vinum (12/1) to Win, Place, and Show

 

Handicapping horse racing is about projecting. You can't just rely on past performances. Leading jockey Flavien Prat rode Carpe Vinum last race, and said after he wants to ride her again. Unfortunately, Prat is in Dubai. Ryan Curatolo gets a 4 pound bug and he fits CV nicely. This horse needs more distance and finally gets it. Trainer Phil D'Amato was beaming after her last work and D'Amato is red hot--- winning 22% over the past 30 days. Carpe Vinum has the fastest late-pace speed figure of this bunch. She's sitting on a huge race. Tremendous value. You heard it here first!

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline 



Jeff's Top 3 MLB Season Win Total best bets in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-25

JEFF'S TOP 3 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL BEST BETS IN 2022
 

 

No. 1 San Francisco Giants Under 85.5 -115


The Giants benefited from career years by aging stars Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford last season. Busty Posey retired and a major regression is in store for this Giants team. The Dodgers and Padres figure to be really good once again. The Diamondbacks and Rockies will playing all year with revenge against the Giants. They stay relatively healthy in their rotation and that doesn't always work out two years in a row. PECOTA projects 77.8 wins. My models have it closer to 80. Lots of wiggle room. Either way, it's my favorite Over/Under play for 2022.


 

No . 2 LA Angels Over 84 -110


I can't believe how low this is considering the rest of the division will be top heavy with the Astros. The Angels have not won 85 games since 2015. They have the two favorites to win the AL MVP and added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation. He fits nicely right behind Ohtani and Reid Detmers is a nice prospect who doesn't have a rotation spot right now. Good problem to have. Detmers would have made my list if he was penciled in as the 5th starter. He's listed as the 6th starter. My point, the Angles have an improved pitching staff and they should have no trouble scoring runs. They need to stay relatively healthy and a playoff appearance just might happen. PECOTA projects 88.4 wins. I have it at 89, and really like this team going forward!


 

No. 3 LA Dodgers Over 97.5 -115


This one seems too easy. In the past four full seasons (not counting pandemic), the LA dodgers have averaged 102 victories. You might say, they are not as deep as last year. True, but the Dodgers have deep pockets and always make the deadline deal (taking on salary) that improves their chances of winning. That's what you want when betting Over season win totals. The Dodgers have a rich farm system still and can tap into that market at any time. The Dodgers offense should be sick! You will see some new young faces on this Dodgers' team that will contribute to at least 99 wins. PECOTA projects 101. wins. This is a blue chip stock. Go Over 97.5!


Twitter: @jhsportsline
 



Jeff's Top 5 Left-handed Starters Age 27 or Younger in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-24

The elite left-handed starters have a big advantage just for the simple fact that most players see a lot more right-handed pitching. Look for teams that have not faced a Quality Left-handed starter for some time (five games or more) and you will have a nice winning investment. Here are my Top 5 Left-handed starting pitchers age 27 or younger going forward for the 2022 season. Baseball is back baby!

 

 

 

No. 1   Julio Urias   (LA Dodgers)         AGE: 25          (2021: 20-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)

 

 

 

Was No. 3 on this list in 2020-21 and will occupy the top spot until he's no longer eligible. Julio had a breakout year for the Blue Crew last season. For his career, Urias has 427 strikeouts in 424.2 innings with a 32-10 record and 3.09 ERA. The Dodgers have refused every trade when teams asked for Julio ever since his rookie year back in 2016. At age 25, he is no longer on a restricted pitch count, although the Dodgers are extremely analytical in their decision making. His "stuff" is dynamic featuring a mid to upper 90s fastball, cutter, slider, curve-ball and devastating change-up. I would expect another tremendous season. The Dodgers' offense looks unstoppable (especially with DH), so reaching 20 wins seems obtainable. Dodger Stadium ranked the 12th toughest in runs scored last year according to ESPN Park Factors. Grab him as an Ace in the 2nd round. Love him! 

 

 

 

No. 2  Trevor Rogers    (Miami Marlins)           AGE: 24        (2021: 7-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)

 

 

 

Trevor is about to have his best season of his career. Thanks, Captain Obvious! Last season, Rogers recorded 157 strikeouts in just 133 IP. If he gets more run support this year, you're looking at 15-20 wins. I would expect a slight regression in ERA and WHIP on the road. At home, Marlins Park ranked the toughest stadium in runs scored by ESPN Park Factors. The strikeouts will always be there with a sterling 28.8% K-rate. Huge in fantasy. Good for straight wagers too especially as underdogs. You can draft him in the 2nd to sixth round depending on your needs. Don't miss out. These young stud lefties are hard to find. Should be an All-Star in 2022!

 

 

 

No. 3   Aaron Ashby      (Milwaukee Brewers)       AGE: 23    (2021: 3-2, 4.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

 

 

Appeared in 13 games (4 starts) last season and recorded 39 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. Ashby averaged 96.5 MPH on his sinking fastball last season, while routinely touching 97-99. His slider is devastating (82-85 MPH), with sharp break leading to a 42% strikeout rate. His third best pitch is an above average upper 80s diving change-up that produces a lot of strikeouts. Ashby also has an upper 70s looping curve-ball which is just for show. The Brewers want less walks from Ashby which should come with more experience. The Brewers are high on him and you should be too. Ashby will be battling for the 5th spot this spring. He's too talented not to crack the rotation at some point. Keep an eye on him. Don't forget, at least 50% of all starters will land on the IL at some point. He's unlikely to win 15-20 games, but 8-10 wins with 175 K's in 150 IP will help your team. Mid to Late round steal!

 

 

 

No. 4  Tarik Skubal            (Detroit Tigers)         AGE: 25      (2021: 8-12, 4.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)

 

 

 

Tarik Skubal will be the fourth starter to begin the season. His numbers have improved in each of his first two big-league seasons. Last year, Skubal continued his upward trend with 164 strikeouts in 149.1 IP. His 26.1% career K-rate is very impressive. Skubal allowed 35 Home Runs last season, but don't let that scare you from backing or drafting him. Young pitchers only get better with more innings, and Detroit's home stadium ranked as the 6th-toughest in runs scored last year. A lot of that had to with the Tigers' offense. I get that. Detroit's offense should be better with the addition Baez and Schoop. Look for a "breakout" season in terms of Innings, strikeouts, and hopefully 10+ wins. Another mid to late round steal!

 

 

 

No. 5   Jesus Luzardo         (Miami Marlins)     AGE: 24     (2021: 6-9, 6.61 ERA, 1.61 WHIP)

 

 

Another Marlin! The numbers don't jump off the page, but even the best pitchers can struggle early in careers. The Marlins are very exited of what they will see from this highly touted prospect. Jesus throws in the upper 90s, with a tremendous slider, curve-ball, and change-up. Last year, he recorded 98 strikeouts in 95.1 innings shuffling between the bullpen and starter. The Marlins have Luzardo listed as their fifth starter, which should help his mental game. Marlins Park surrendered the fewest runs in all of baseball last season according to ESPN Park Factors. Look for 10-15 wins with more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2022. The Marlins should also be better on offense. PECOTA projects 707 runs scored, which is more than they scored last season (623). Late round sleeper with ginormous upside!

 

 

Jeff's success in MLB is well-documented since 1998. Jeff was ranked No. 1 in MLB last season at The Sports Monitor of OK. Not a one time thing. Jeff was ranked No. 5 two seasons ago, and No. 3 three years ago. Numerous Top 10 rankings as well. Jeff's Early Bird MLB package now available! It's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Just $499 for the entire season thru World Series. Save $200! 

 

 

Good Luck this Baseball Season!

 

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline 



Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-03

Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Preview (Race 11)

 

Saturday, March 5th, 2022 (5:00 PM PT)

 

 

#1 Spielberg (8/1), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Abel Cedillo

 

Purchased for 1 million dollars.This 4-year old Chestnut Colt by Union Rags has finished in-the-money in 7 of 11 (3-3-1) starts with career earnings of $475,900. Finished 4th in the San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22, earning a 96 Equibase speed figure. The workouts have been fast, but Baffert is known for that. If you see a Baffert horse with a slow work pattern that would be a red flag. Improving speed figures in three straight races is encouraging. The one big question remains. Has this horse reached its peek. My answer would be yes. Never a good sign when Prat chooses to ride a different horse. I don't think this horse can handle 1 1/4 miles. I do like the combination of Baffert and Cedillio. Toss!

 

 

#2 Why Why Paul Why (6/1), trained by Michael McCarthy & ridden by Juan Hernandez

 

Funny name. Was claimed for $30,000 which has proven to be a good one. Has been first or second in 11 of 19 starts (6-5-0) with career earnings of $196,178. Finished second in the Jazil Stakes on 1/22/22 at Aqueduct after winning four straight. The speed figures are solid with a 104, 108, and 101 in his last three. He will be making his first start in California for his new trainer (McCarthy) after racking up five wins in seven starts for trainer Penny Pearce on the East Coast. Takes a major step up in class today. His speed figures match-up with the big boys. I really like McCarthy and Juan Hernandez, who are both underrated in my opinion. Most people named Paul will bet this horse. Use Underneath! 

 

 

#3 Warrant (4/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Flavien Prat

 

A good band back in the day. Has never finished out of the money in eight starts (3-3-2) with career earnings of $649,700. AWarrant is by Constitution, who has produced numerous graded stakes victories. Finished third in the Louisiana Stakes on 1/22/22, earning a 101 Equibase speed figure. Before that, he won the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby earning that same 101 speed rating. His speed figures are a notch below some of his rivals, but he's lightly raced as a 4-year old and eligible for improvement. Prat finished fourth with Independence Hall last year. I think this horse is better! Win Contender!

 

 

#4 Soy Tapito (20/1), trained by Doug O'Neill & ridden by Diego Herrera

 

Has two wins and two thirds from six lifetime starts ($101,480). This gelded son of Not This Time will make his Graded stakes debut after winning two in a row. A MSW win on 1/8/22 at Santa Anita, followed by an Allowance victory on 2/18/22, earning a career-best 106 speed figure. Intriguing horse and those two wins at Santa Anita were visibly impressive. Mercado Racing and Doug O'Neill have high hopes for this horse, hence the quick turnaround. Soy Tapito is bred to go long. This horse won his maiden in front-running fashion and than rallied with a sustained come-from-behind win last time out. Apprentice jockey Herrera has options. This could be his breakout performance. Longshot  Win Contender! 

 

 

#5 American Theorem (12/1), trained by George Papaprodromou & ridden by Mike Smith

 

This son by American Pharoah has finished first or second in five of eight (2-3-0) with career earnings of $169,267. Hasn't lived up to the hype. Finished 6th (last) in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22. The speed figure was slow (86) and there was a legitimate excuse. AT got shuffled back on the first turn losing momentum to eventual winner Express Train. I would expect jockey Mike Smith to engage AT earlier out of the gate. Does he have enough class to win this type of race. Yes, but hasn't shown it yet. Until he does you can Toss!

 

 

#6 Express Train (8/5), trained by John Shirreffs & ridden by Victor Espinoza

 

I will always have a soft spot for Victor Espinoza as he was the first jockey to ride my horse, Tizamagician. The Train has finished in-the-money 13 of 16 starts (6-4-3) with career earnings of $935,800. Very impressive. He won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22 earning a 106 speed figure. Before that, he won the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes and certainty loves running at Santa Anita. Improving speed figures in three straight races. ET has won four Grade 2 races and is looking for a bigger prize. The 5-year old colt by Union Rags will get plenty of action at the window. I am not sold on him in this race. The One to Beat!

 

 

#7 Kiss Today Goodbye (15/1), trained by Eric Kruljac & ridden by Kyle Frey

 

Speaking of Tizamagician, he's beat this horse several times in graded stakes action. Kiss Today Goodbye has three wins, one second, and three thirds from 17 career starts ($306,302). Not sure why the connections keep running in graded stakes. Finished 7th in Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup on 1/23/21, 6th in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last year, 8th in the Grade 2 San Diego on 7/17/21, 2nd in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes on 11/21/21, 7th in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes on 12/26/21, and 5th last time out in the Grade 2 San Pasqual on 2/5/22. Does that give you confidence to back this horse? Maybe he wakes up in this Grace 1 at a nice price. Even with this soft field, I would be shocked if he won. Toss!

 

 

#8 Stilleto Boy (5/2), trained by Ed Moger Jr. & ridden by John Velazquez

 

Has finished in-the-money 10 of 13 (2-3-5) career starts, earning $833,175. The 4-year old Chestnut gelding by Shackleford has been running in Grade 1 races only. Finished 3rd in the Pegasus World Cup to Life is Good and Knicks Go, 3rd in Grade 1 Run Happy Malibu Stakes losing to Flightline, 5th in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Classic, and 2nd in the Grade 1 Awesome Again losing to Medina Spirit (RIP) who was probably cheating. I can't prove that though. Positive jockey change to Velazquez, who does well on horses with a pressing/sustained running style. Owns the highest Equibase speed figure (117) of the bunch which occurred in his last race. You can make the argument that Stilleto Boy is getting class relief after facing those juggernauts in the Pegasus World Cup. Win Contender and my Top Choice!

 

 

Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Selections

 

Play #8 Stilleto Boy (5/2) to win, place, and show (I would expect we get at least 7/2)

 

#3 Warrent (4/1) (Place)

 

#4 Soy Tapito (20/1) (Show)

 

#6 Express Train (8/5) (Fourth)

 

$1.00 Trifecta Box ($24)

 

Using the four horses above.

 

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 2 Remsen Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-02-24

Jeff's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Preview (Race 11)

 

 

Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas

 

 

Saturday, February 26th, 2022 (6:22 pm et)

 

 

 

 

#1 Kavod (12/1), trained by Chris Hartman & ridden by Francisco Arrieta 

 

 

Has finished first or second (11-3-1-0) in  four of 11 career starts, earning $293,000. Was a distant fourth (beaten 5 1/2 lengths) in the Southwest Stakes last month. The class rating and speed figures don't jump off the page. The inside post is not ideal either, although Kavod won from post #1 in a  minor stakes sprint race at Oaklawn Park last December. At the end of the day, this distance seems too long for this horse. Toss!

 

 

 

#2 Newgrange (9/5), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by John Velazquez

 

 

A lock to be post time chalk. Has done nothing wrong. Three races, three wins, with earnings of $552,000. Won the Southwest Stakes here at Oaklawn by 1 1/4 lengths over Barber Road. Improving speed figures (Equibase) in three straight. From an 89 maiden score to a 98 last time out. Fastest horse in field with a 93 Equibase figure. Newgrange wants to go long. This trainer/jockey combo win 51% together for ROI of +50%. Won't be eligible for Kentucky Derby Points, but is defiantly The One to Beat and MY TOP CHOICE!

 

 

 

#3 Cairama (15/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Geovanni Franco

 

 

Has finished in the money two out of four (4-1-0-1) with career earnings of $71,125. This would be a huge shocker and seems in over his head. Slow early pace, slow middle pace, slow late pace. Has never raced at Oaklawn Park. Toss!

 

 

 

#4 Un Ojo (12/1), trained by Ricky Courville & ridden by Ramon Vazquez

 

 

Has finished first or second (5-1-2-0) in three of five starts with career earnings of $176,321. Was a distant second in a stakes race at Aqueduct earlier this month. The speed figure came back slow (74). Un Ojo ranks 11/11 in Class and 11/11 in speed and now steps up in class. Toss!

 

 

 

#5 Texas Red Hot (12/1), trained by Randy Morse & ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr.

 

 

This Colt by Texas Red has finished first or second (5-2-1-0) in three of five starts with career earnings of $133,670. Finished 10th (14 1/2 lengths behind Smile Happy) in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup. Has a bullet work (1/53) going 5f in 1.00.2 on Feb. 19th at OP. I just don't see this horse being anywhere close based on his forum, class, and speed figures. This is another horse you can completely Toss!

 

 

 

#6 Stellar Tap (10/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Cristian Torres

 

 

This Tapit bred Colt has finished in-the-money two of four starts with career earnings of $71,292. Has not won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga last August. Finished third in his most recent start, an allowance race at Fair Grounds last month. I respect the trainer and maybe he knows something. Stellar Tap does have improving speed figures in his past three races and is bred to go long. Has never raced at Oaklawn Park. Running off Lasix is a bit of a concern. Use underneath!

 

 

 

#7 Ben Diesel (6/1), trained by Dallas Stewart & ridden by Jon Court  

 

 

Has finished in the money (4-1-0-1) two of four starts with career earnings of $164,110. Finished third (beaten 2 3/4 lengths) behind winner Newgrange in the Southwest Stakes. Has enough early speed to gain position into the first turn. Uneven work tap is a concern though. I would not bet this horse to win at anything less than 20/1. Toss!

 

 

 

#8 Chasing Time (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione

 

 

Not This Time is proving to be a very good sire. His son (Epicenter) won the Remsen Stakes last week. Chasing Time has finished first or second (5-2-2-0) in four of five starts with career earnings of $179,460. Two starts at Oaklawn Park have produced a win and second. I like this horse, but might get bet down unjustly due to the Myracehorse ownership group. I do not own any shares of Chasing Time. This is a major step up in class and will need to gain 8-10 points from his last speed figure. Is more than capable of doing just that. Extra boost if the track comes up wet. Win Contender!

 

 

 

#9 Barber Road (9/2), trained by Alexander Ortiz & ridden by Reylu Gutierez

 

 

Has finished first or second in (6-2-3-0) in five of six career starts with earnings of $300,720. Strong contender after finishing second to Newgrange (1 1/4 lengths) in the Southwest Stakes. Ranks 10/11 in class rating. Very tough to win this type of race. Fast works and likes Oaklawn are two positives. Getting his regular jockey back could help, although Barber Road has finished second in three straight races. The class and speed figures don't excite me, but this horse could improve especially on a wet track. Use Underneath!

 

 

 

#10 Ethereal Road (12/1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas & ridden by Luis Contreras

 

 

Has one win and one third in four career starts, earning $63,545. This Colt by Quality Road enters off a MSW win at Oaklawn Park last month, earning a career best 88 Equibase speed figure. Has never raced from post #10 or higher. Benefited from a ground-saving trip from post #2 last time out. This is a major step up in class and will run off Lasix for the first time. Toss!  

 

 

 

#11 Dash Attack (8/1), trained by Kenneth McPeek & ridden by David Cohen

 

 

The local horse might attract some attention. Has two wins and one fifth place finish in three career starts ($227,940). That clunker was the Southwest Stakes, finishing a distance fifth by 7 3/4 lengths. No horse has been working better and would certainly benefit if the track comes up wet. Respect the trainer that wins 22% in stakes races. Has never run from an outside post, but does own the highest class rating (95) and second-highest speed figure (90). Use Underneath! 

 

 

 

Jeff's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Selection

 

 

Play #2 Newgrange (9/5) to win & place!

 

 

#8 Not This Time (8/1) (Place)  

 

 

#6 Stellar Tap (10/1) Show

 

 

#11 Dash Attack (8/1) (fourth)

 

 

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-02-16

Risen Star Stakes (Grade 2)  Fair Grounds--- Race 13

 

 

 

 

 

#1 Pappacap (4/1), trained by Mark Casse & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione

 

 

This 3-year old Colt by Gun Runner has finished in-the-money five of six (6-2-2-1) tries, earning $596,000. Earned a career best Equibase speed figure of 96 when finishing 3rd in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds last month. The local works have been off the charts spectacular. Improving speed figures in four straight races. Always nice to see. Trainer Mark Casse wins 15% in the second race after a 2-6 month layoff. I love the positive jockey switch from Bravo to Gaffalione. Has tactical speed where the rail post won't matter much. Win Contender!

 

 

 

#2 Russian Tank (50/1), trained by Gennadi Dorochenko & ridden by Jose Vega

 

This horse has no chance and could get scratched. Won a maiden special weight race on turf last November. Has been first or second in two of eight career starts (8-1-1-0) with earnings of $39,160. Has never raced at today's distance on a dirt track. Ranks 10/10 in early pace, 10/10 in middle pace, 10/10 in late pace. Declining speed figures in three straight races. Trainer wins 12% sprint to route. Toss!

 

#3 Trafalgar (10/1), trained by Albert Stall & ridden by Colby Hernandez

 

Finished fourth by 4 1/2 lengths in the Lecomte Stakes at FG last month. In four career starts, Trafalgar has two wins and one second with earnings of $125,060. Blinkers go on today. Albert Stall wins 50% with first time blinkers. Fast works in the morning. I don't believe this horse has enough speed and class to win this type of race. Toss!

 

 

 

 

 

#4 Tawny Port (12/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux

 

 

Has done nothing wrong, winning both career starts (synthetic surface) for $75,600. This is a major step up in class for the son of Pioneerof the Nile. Earned a career best 90 Equibase speed figure and would need to improve another 10 points to win this race. The connections suggest it could happen. Trainer Brad Cox wins 29% off 1-2 month layoff and 30% going 1 1/8 mile of the dirt. Asking a lot to handle this talented field in his initial try on dirt. Will be a nice price. Long Shot!

 

 

 

 

#5 Epicenter (4/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Joel Rosario)

 

 

Has finished first or second in three of four career starts (4-2-1-0) with earnings of $170,639. Finished 2nd by a head in the Grade 2 Lecomte Stakes last month. Two starts at Fair Grounds produced a win and second. Should be on or near the lead with a clean start. Owns the fastest early pace (102.9) speed figure in the field. Owns the second fastest middle pace (91.6). The works have jumped off the page in the morning. Gate to wire? Win Contender!

 

 

 

 

#6 Pioneer of Medina (10/1), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by Luis Saez

 

 

Has won two straight and takes a major step up in class today. Has never been out of the money if four career starts (4-2-1-1) with earnings of $65,350. These connections must be respected. This trainer/jockey combo wins 29% together from a massive sample size. Running off lasix is a major concern though. Tough to back with slower speed figures than main rivals. Use Underneath!

 

 

 

 

 

#7 Zandon (9/2), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Jose Ortiz

 

 

Chad Brown opted for this spot over Gulfstream's Holy Bull Stakes. Has one win and one second in two starts with career earnings of $99,500. Lost by a nose to Mo Donegal, as the betting favorite in the Grade 2 Remsen. This 3-year old Colt by Upstart has produced identical Equibase speed figures of 93. Mo Donegal came back to finish 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 5th. I prefer others. Use Underneath!

 

 

 

 

 

#8 Smile Happy (7/2), trained by Keeneth McPeek & ridden by Corey Lanerie

 

 

Has two wins from two career starts earning $248,810 so far. His sire is Run Happy. Have you heard of him? Kidding of course. Owns the fastest Equibase speed figure (98) in the field. Owns the fastest late pace speed figure (111.5) and should be rolling late with a clean trip. The two horses Smile Happy defeated in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club stakes (Classic Causeway & White Abarrio) both came back to win a stakes race. The ultimate goal is the Kentucky Derby, so taking a stand against him in this spot seems like a worthwhile risk, as he may not be cranked up to 100% this early. The One to Beat!

 

 

 

 

#9 Bodock (10/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Marcelino Pedroza Jr.

 

 

Two wins from two starts for career earnings of $52,00. The last victory was here at FG on an off track, earning a career-best 87 speed figure. From a class and speed rating, this horse looks to be up against it. There are faster, proven, and more classier horses in this field. Ranks 10/10 in Class and 9/10 in speed rating. Brad Cox wins 34% sprint to route. Never raced beyond 6 furlongs. Toss!

 

 

 

 

 

#10 Slow Down Andy (9/2), trained by Doug O'Neill & ridden by Mario Gutierrez

 

 

Has never finished out of the money in three career starts (3-2-1-0), with earnings of $249,850. Won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, earning a career-best 95 Equibase speed figure back in December. This is another step up in class for the 3-year old son by Nyquist. The level of competition has been sub-par to say the least. Doug O'Neill is a great trainer, but it's hard to ignore his 7% win percentage in all stakes races. The outside post and his sustained running style are of major concern. Toss!

 

 

 

Jeff's Grade 2 Risen Star Selection (5:58 pm ET)

 

 

Play #5 Epicenter (4/1) Across-the-Board!

 

 

 

 

#7 Zadon (9/2) (Place)

 

 

#1 Paapacap (4/1) (Show)

 

 

#8 Smile Happy (7/2) (Fourth)

 

 

 

 

 

Twitter:@jhsportsline