Winning Cappers
JH-Sportsline
        Now in year #23, Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline has become one of the most successful and well-respected handicappers in the entire Nation. Jeff is also a published sports writer, covering everything from Football to Horse Racing.

Jeff has his selections documented by the The Sports Monitor of OK. During that time, he has accumulated numerous seasonal titles in all the major sports including NHL Hockey. Jeff is your 2005-06 NBA Handicapping Champion at The Sports Monitor of OK and has over 25 Top 25 rankings in his career. Jeff is now an 8-time documented NHL Handicapping Champion after finishing No. 1 in win percentage and net profit in 2019-20. Jeff was ranked No. 2 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor of OK in 2014, No. 3 in 2017 and No. 3 in 2018, and No. 1 in 2019. Jeff was ranked #3 in MLB last season. Check out the rest of Jeff's documented records at The Sports Monitor of OK and the Sports Watch Monitor! 
 
Jeff isn't just a football expert though, as his Hockey, Baseball, Basketball, and are also highly respected. Nowhere else on the internet will you find free picks and top-rated picks from one of the finest documented sports handicappers in the nation.

Jeff is also the former Odds Manger for Picks Pal. This is not a hobby of mine! It's my business and I take it very seriously.

Making money in this business is all about money management and of course picking winners. I rate my selections 3 units, 4 units, 5 units, and top-rated 10 unit plays in the NFL, College Football, NHL, NBA/College Hoops, and MLB. All 5 unit plays are considered Best Bets. My Games of the Month and Year will always be graded as Top-rated 10 unit Gems. Example-- If you play $100 per unit and the line is -120, on a 3 unit play you would risk $360 to win $300.
 
Period:
Picks:

JH-Sportsline - All Sports 2022
SportWinsLosses  WCR    ROIWin%
    NFL2   3     9.4   330.00   40 %    
    NCAAF1   0     100.0   400.00   100 %    
    NBA1   0     100.0   400.00   100 %    
    NCAAB2   1     37.6   376.00   67 %    
    MLB0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NHL2   1     28.6   400.00   67 %    
    WNBA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    MMA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    BOXING0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NASCAR0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    SOCCER0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
        TOTALS8   5     28.4   1906.00   62 %    

Additional Statistics For 2022

JH-Sportsline

        Now in year #23, Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline has become one of the most successful and well-respected handicappers in the entire Nation. Jeff is also a published sports writer, covering everything from Football to Horse Racing.

Jeff has his selections documented by the The Sports Monitor of OK. During that time, he has accumulated numerous seasonal titles in all the major sports including NHL Hockey. Jeff is your 2005-06 NBA Handicapping Champion at The Sports Monitor of OK and has over 25 Top 25 rankings in his career. Jeff is now an 8-time documented NHL Handicapping Champion after finishing No. 1 in win percentage and net profit in 2019-20. Jeff was ranked No. 2 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor of OK in 2014, No. 3 in 2017 and No. 3 in 2018, and No. 1 in 2019. Jeff was ranked #3 in MLB last season. Check out the rest of Jeff's documented records at The Sports Monitor of OK and the Sports Watch Monitor! 
 
Jeff isn't just a football expert though, as his Hockey, Baseball, Basketball, and are also highly respected. Nowhere else on the internet will you find free picks and top-rated picks from one of the finest documented sports handicappers in the nation.

Jeff is also the former Odds Manger for Picks Pal. This is not a hobby of mine! It's my business and I take it very seriously.

Making money in this business is all about money management and of course picking winners. I rate my selections 3 units, 4 units, 5 units, and top-rated 10 unit plays in the NFL, College Football, NHL, NBA/College Hoops, and MLB. All 5 unit plays are considered Best Bets. My Games of the Month and Year will always be graded as Top-rated 10 unit Gems. Example-- If you play $100 per unit and the line is -120, on a 3 unit play you would risk $360 to win $300.
Period:
Picks:

JH-Sportsline - All Sports 2022
SportWinsLosses  WCR    ROIWin%
    NFL2   3     9.4   330.00   40 %    
    NCAAF1   0     100.0   400.00   100 %    
    NBA1   0     100.0   400.00   100 %    
    NCAAB2   1     37.6   376.00   67 %    
    MLB0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NHL2   1     28.6   400.00   67 %    
    WNBA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NASCAR0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
        TOTALS8   5     28.4   1906.00   62 %    

Additional Statistics For 2022

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Jeff's 5* NFL Postseason best bet--HOT

Jeff (JH-Sportsline) did it again last weekend in the NFL, cashing his Top-rated 10* NFL Postseason Game of the Month with the Bengals. Jeff is now 23-9-2 in the NFL Postseason since 2014, documented at The Sports Monitor of OK Don't miss Jeff's 5* NFL Postseason best bet with all the reasons why for $49 going on Sunday. Get down now before this line starts to move. You will be glad you did. 100% Profit Guaranteed!
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Jeff's 2022 New Year's Day Horse Racing Spot Play

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-12-31

2022 New Year's Day Spot Play (best bet)

Santa Anita Race 7 (Grade III Sham Stakes)

Play #1 Mackinnon (3/1) to Win & Place

There is a good chance that the #5 Degree of Risk will be scratched. American Pharoah's progeny have performed better on turf than dirt. With that said, Mackinnon is the best horse in this race. Has the highest Equibase speed figure and will be dropping in class after finishing 3rd in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile turf. The two Baffert horses will attract plenty of betting attention. They are complete fades for me in this spot. Mackinnon has been working "lights out" on dirt with a strong and steady work tab. A huge buzz around Clockers' Corner. Mackinnon has the fastest late pace speed figure (110) in the race by a significant margin. This 3-year Colt can win on the lead or from off the pace. Hopefully, we can get 4/1 or better. Good Luck and Happy New Year!
 

Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jhsportsline 



Jeff's Santa Anita Opening Day best bets

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-12-26

Santa Anita Opening Day best bets (12/26/21)


Race 6 (Grade 2 San Antonio)   Post time: 1:40 PT


Play #5 Eight Rings (4/1) to Win and Place


Heavy rain this past week and overnight in Arcadia, CA, This means you will want to favor horses with early speed. Eight Rings needs the lead and should get it with a clean start. Bob Baffert and John Velazquez win 41% together, finish in-the-money 70%, while producing a STRONG +28% return on investment (ROI).


Place: #4 Hot Rod Charlie (6/5)


Show: #2 Express Train (7/2)


Race 11 (Grade 1 American Oaks) Post time: 4:20 PT 


Play #4 Nicest (8/1) to Win, Place, and Show 


Going Global is 4-for-4 at Santa Anita and will be a short price around 1/1. I see value in this 3-year old Filly by American Pharoah, trained by Michael McCarthy. The Ireland bred should appreciate the softer turf. I think the turf course will be yielding or soft, especially early in the day. It's going to be a cold day (by So. Cal standards) so I don't think the track will dry quickly. Heavy rain expected overnight. Only 54 degrees is the forecast high temp in Arcadia. Nicest has the fastest late-pace speed figure in the race. Along with his front-running style should set up "Nicely" for Nicest. Gate to wire. Huge Value!


Place: #5 Going Global


Show: #1 Fluffy Socks


Follow Jeff on twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Breeders Cup Turf Sprint Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-11-04

Grade 1 Breeders Cup Turf Sprint Selection (Race 5)


Saturday, November 6th, 2021 (12:40 PM PT)


Play #4 Lieutenant Dan to win, place, and show


ML: 6/1


The local boy gets a dream post in this salty group of 12 three-year old an up colts and geldings. You don't want to be way outside in this type of turf race at Del Mar. LD has 2 wins from two starts going 5 furlongs on the Del Mar turf course. This 5-year old son by Grazen has won three in a row and four of five. The Nick Alexander- owned gelding has been a different horse since switching to turf sprints. Grazen's progeny are winning 19% in turf sprints the past five years. The Dam (Excusabull) has produced a 29% win rate (4-for-14) in career turf sprints. Trainer Steven Miyadi winning 33% of his stakes races past three months. Jockey Geovanni Franco wins 24% for Miyadi. Solid stuff for a horse who loves sprinting on the turf at Del Mar. Hopefully, 6/1 or better!


Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jhsportsline



Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-11-03

Del Mar, Saturday, November 6th, 2021.

 

 

Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes

 

 

Race:2 (10:50 AM PT)

 

 

Play #4 Tizamagician to Win & Place.

 

 

Morning Line: 8/5

 

 

 

Yes, Lone Rock beat Tiz in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes, but that was like a road game with Tiz's poor start. Watch the replay. The track announcer at Belmont said "Tizamagician off slow to a stumbling beginning and is at the back of the pack". Had to press hard and managed to finished second. That's a legitimate excuse and now its payback time. Tiz loves Del Mar, first or second in 5 of 7 starts. Lone Rock has never run at Del Mar. Horses with experience running at Del Mar win a much higher rate than other tracks. Lone Rock has two declining speed figures after posting a career-best 115 Equibase speed figure in the Brooklyn. In 35 starts, Lone Rock has earned $874,921 with an average earnings per start of $27,341. Tizamagician has earned $633,851 in 20 career starts. That equates to $31,692 per start. Tiz is a perfect 2-0 (wins) after finishing 5th in his career. Tiz finished 5th in the Grade 1 Awesome Again on October 21. Trainer Richard Mandella & jockey Flavien Prat win 40% together and finish 76% in the money. I'm hoping the public bets Lone Rock down to 3/5. Hopefully, Tiz's odds will creep up to 5/2. I love Tizamagician in this spot, as the 4-year old colt by Tiznow wants to run long and even longer. With a clean start, take Tizamagician to the bank! 

 

 

 

 

Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Horse Race Spot Plays Saturday, October 2, 2021

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-10-01

Jeff's Horse Racing Spot Plays for Saturday, October 2nd, 2022

 

 

SANTA ANITA PARK

 

 

Race 8 (Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint)

 

 

#2 Vertical Threat (6/1) win, place, and show

 

 

Vertical Threat has won four of seven career starts, including a 3 1/2 length victory in Russell Road Stakes at odds of 3.5 to 1 on August 27th. Owned by Slam Dunk Racing and MyRacehorse, this 4-year colt by Tapiture is the lone speed. According to Stats Race Lens, VT has the fastest early and second fastest middle pace figures in the race. 

 

He makes his third start off extended layoff, often a horses best effort. Other horses will attract plenty of attention in this race. VT has the highest career Beyer speed figure (102) of this group. Two very efficient works over this Santa Anita dirt track is nice to see. With a clean start, Vertical Threat will be on the lead and it's catch me if you can. When Vertical Threat broke his Maiden by 6 lengths in 2020, track announcer Michael Wrona said "VT looks to be a horse of high promise". This will be the race that proves Wrona right. Hopefully 6/1 or better than straight to the BC Sprint next month at Del Mar.

 

 

 

SANTA ANITA PARK

 

Race 10 (Grade 1 Awesome Again)

 

 

#1 Tizamagician (4/1) win & place

 

The 4-year colt by Tiznow earned a career-high 102 Beyer Speed figure when finishing second behind Tripoli in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last month. Interesting that Tripoli's Beyer speed rating came back 103, just one point higher. Since Flavien Prat has taken over pilot duties, Tizamagician has two wins and two seconds, all graded stakes. Tizamagician has finished first or second in eight of his past nine races. He loves Santa Anita and loves the No. 1 post with two wins and two seconds. With a clean start, I would expect Tiz to be on or near the lead. We've been on Tiz for quite some time. 

 

Call me a homer, but I truly believe Tizamagician is the right choice. Don't forget, most Tiznow progeny get better with age. Richard Mandella/Flavien Prat win at 37% and finish in-the-money- 76%. I think the value is starting to fade a tad, but anything close to his ML would be a top play for me. Medina Spirit will attract a lot of attention at the window which might help Tiz's odds. Good Luck and stay safe! 

 

 

Follow Jeff on Twitter @jhsportsline 



Jeff's 2021-22 NHL Eastern Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-09-27

Jeff (JH-Sportsline) is an 8-time NHL documented handicapping champion at The Sports Monitor of OK. Jeff cashed 62% in the 2020-21 Covid-19 reduced regular season, and was ranked No. 1 in ROI. It was very challenging finding NHL selections, especially with the realignment and quirky schedule. Jeff has shown a profit in Hockey for seven straight seasons. Jeff's Early Bird NHL discount is available through October 10th. 

 

 

 

Jeff's 2021-22 NHL Eastern Conference Spotlight Team: New York Islanders  (2021 record: 32-17-7, 71 points)

 

 

The Islanders have lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Conference Finals for two straight seasons. They bring back mostly the entire roster from last season. The Islanders jettisoned Jordan Eberle to the Seattle Kraken in the expansive draft. New York signed Zach Parise and Zdeno Chara to add to this talented roster. Adding Chara to this suffocating defensive is smart. New York has superstar Mathew Barzal who posted 17 goals and 28 helpers in 55 games last season. In four full seasons, Barzal has 252 points in 289 games. He might reach the 30-goal mark this season. I think Oliver Wahlstrom is on the cusp of a big season after posting 21 points in 53 games last season. Barry Trotz is a brilliant coach. He won the Stanley Cup with the Capitals (2017-18) in his fourth season with the team. 

 

This will be Trotz's fourth season with the Islanders. Since 2019, New York has won five postseason series and 28 total games, second most to the Lightning. The Islanders have more B+ players than any other team in the Eastern Conference. The two goalies are outstanding. Varlamov had a 2.04 GAA and Sorokan posted a 2.17 GAA last season. They just need to stay healthy so the Islanders can rotate those two studs game to game. This is one hungry team playing in the same exact system for four years. The Islanders should win the Eastern Conference this season after Tampa Bay pulls back a tad.

 

 

 

Jeff's New York Islanders Prediction: (48-27-7, #4 seed in East, 103 points)

 

 

 

Jeff's Eastern Conference Season Point Total best bet: New Islanders Over 99.5 points -115 & Montreal Canadians Under 90.5 -125

 

 

 

The Canadians benefited last season from only having to play teams in Canada. With a normal schedule and reduced talent, Montreal will not reach 90.5 points. The Market is way too high on Montreal right now.

 

 

 

Follow Jeff on twitter @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-09-22

Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby Preview (Parx Casino and racetrack)

 

 

1 1/8 miles on dirt with a $1,000,000 purse

 

 

Saturday, September 25th, Race 12 (5:49 PM E)

 

 

 

 

 

#1 Fulsome (12/1), trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux

 

 

This 3-year old colt by Into Mischief has hit the board in 7 of 9 (5-1-1) lifetime starts with career earnings of $582,504. He won the Grade 3 Smarty Jones last month earning a career best 104 Equibase speed figure. He's 1-for-1 at Parx, 1-for-1 at this distance, and 1-for-1 on a wet track. Rain is expected on Thursday, but should clear out by Saturday. Had a nice work going 5F in 1:00.5 on September 18th. Fulsome is taking a step up in class. He would need to improve quite a bit off his last win although it's doable. Brad Cox winning 30% off horse win in last start. Longshot!  

 

 

 

 

 

 

#2 Keepmeinmind (8/1), trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by Joel Rosario 

 

 

Has hit the board in 6 of 11 (1-3-2) career starts with earning of $739,837. It's just really hard to back a horse that hasn't won in almost two years. Was a solid 2nd behind Essential Quality in Grade 2 Jim Dandy on July 31. After that he finished 4th in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes on August 28th. The bright side, he's getting beat by extremely talented horses. The dark side, his speed figures are going south and that's not what you want to see in this type of race. Toss! 

 

 

 

 

 

#3 Speaker's Corner (12/1), trained by William Mott and ridden by Jose Ortiz

 

 

This is an intriguing horse to me. Three career starts with two wins and one third for earnings of $99,940. His speed figures have gone up in every single race. From a 68 to a 107 in an Allowance victory. Has won two straight races after finishing third at first asking. Trainer W. Mott & Jockey J. Ortiz are winning 35% together over the past 31 weeks. You can't ignore that. This 3-year old colt by Street Sense will be stretching out for the first time. Should not be a problem. Mott wins 16% in this role. Longshot!  

 

 

 

 

#4 Weyburn (12/1), trained by James Jerkins and ridden by Paco Lopez

 

 

Has finished first or second in four of seven (2-2-0) career starts with earnings of $343,520. Finished fourth in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, second in the TVG Pegasus and fourth in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. His past performances are very telling. Weyburn is very capable of winning a Listed stakes or even a Grade 3, like the Gotham. But when this 3-year old colt by the late Pioneer of the Nile steps up in class, Weyburn gets beat. Better suited at running 1 mile or less. He's 0-for-2 at this distance and has the worst late-pace speed figures of this bunch. Toss!

 

 

 

 

 

#5 I am Redeemed (20/1), trained by Penny Pearce and ridden by Abner Adorno

 

 

The local bred has finished first or second (3-1-0) in four of seven career starts with earnings of 112,200. He's taking a major step up in class. He obviously loves this track with three wins and one second. He earned a career-best 111 Equibase speed figure on a sloppy track in winning the Storm Cat Stakes on August 23 right here at Parx. The level of competition he's faced so far is nothing to write home about. This horse's chances of winning go up exponentially if the track is wet, sloppy, or muddy. He will save ground and make one big run late. Longshot!

 

 

 

 

#6 Bourbonic (12/1), trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche

 

 

This 3-year old son of Bernardini has finished in the money in five of nine (3-1-1) lifetime starts with earnings of $575,880. His last victory was four starts back (April 23) taking the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. His next three races were a 13th place finish in the Kentucky Derby, fifth place in the Belmont Stakes, and third in the West Virginia derby. I like his chances much better on an off track. He has raced once at Parx finishing second in an AOC (Allowance-Optional claiming) race back in February. Todd Pletcher wins 22% in all stakes races. Declining speed figures is concerning though. Toss!

 

 

 

 

 

#7 Hot Rod Charlie (5/2), trained by Doug O'Neil and ridden by Flavien Prat

 

 

Takes over the role of ML favorite after the scratch of Medina Spirit (See below). The 3-year old colt by Oxbow has hit the board in 7 of 10 (2-2-3) career starts with earnings of $1,214,500. Very impressive. HRC crossed the finish line first in the Grade 1 TVG Haskell, but the stewards ruled he interfered down the stretch and was placed 7th. He earned a career-best 113 Equibase speed figure. You might remember HRC finished third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby behind Mandaloun and Medina Spirit, beaten by just one length. Two races back, HRC finished second in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, beaten 1 1/4 lengths to Essential Quality. There is a lot to love about this horse, especially with the scratch of Medina Spirit, who would have been the post time favorite. Flavien Prat is arguably one the best jockeys in the nation. HRC has the fastest middle pace and late pace speed figures of this bunch. With a clean start, HRC looks like a solid wager. Don't like HRC if the track is wet! The One to Beat!

 

 

 

 

 

#8 Midnight Bourbon (5/1), trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr.

 

 

The 3-year old colt by Tiznow has hit the board in nine of 11 (2-4-3) career starts with earnings of $903,920. His last three races read like this. A second place finish in the Grade 1 Travers last month, DNF (did not finish) in the Grade 1 Haskell, and second in the Preakness Stakes. He earned a career-best 109 Equibase speed figure when finishing second by a nose to Essential Quality on August 28. MB gets overplayed because people like his name. With that said, you have to like his chances off that performance in the Travers. How will he handle racing twice in the less than a month? Contender!

 

 

 

 

#9 Medina Spirit (2/1), trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John Velazquez 

 

 

Medina Spirit has been SCRATCHED and will point to the Grade 1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita on October 2. Tizamagician, Tripoli, Express Train, Rock Your World and others look to take down Medina Spirit.

 

 

 

#10 Americanrevolution (15/1), trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Luis Saez

 

 

The 3-year old son by Constitution has won three of four career starts with earnings of $271,535. Improving speed figures in his first four starts. From a 67 to career-best 108 in the Albany Stakes on August 27. This is a major step up in class but certainly has the pedigree, connections, and form to improve once again. That win in his last race was this same distance of 1 1/8 miles. He will likely go for the lead from that outside post. Todd Pletcher wins 28% off horse win in last start. Luis Saez wins 25% of his races going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Live Longshot contender!

 

 

 

 

Jeff's Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby Selections

 

 

 

Play #7 Hot Rod Charlie to Win & Place

 

 

 

Play #10 Americanrevolution to Win, Place, and Show



Jeff's 2021-22 NHL Western Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-09-20

Jeff (JH-Sportsline) is an 8-time NHL documented handicapping champion at The Sports Monitor of OK. Jeff cashed 62% in the 2020-21 Covid-19 reduced regular season, and was ranked No. 1 in ROI. It was very challenging finding NHL selections, especially with the realignment and quirky schedule. Jeff has shown a profit in Hockey for seven straight seasons. Jeff's Early Bird NHL discount is available through October 10th. 

 

 

 

Jeff's 2021-22 NHL Western Conference Spotlight Team: Seattle Kraken  (2021 record: 0-0-0-0)

 

 

 

Head coach Dave Hakstol went 134-101-42 in four season as the Flyers' main man. He was fired from head coaching duties after going 12-15-4 to start the 2018 campaign. It's always fascinating to see if 30 players from different teams can win games with very little time. With that said, I really like this team's roster right now. It starts with their defense which has size, skill, and speed. They have a Top 5 goalie in Philip Grubauer, who was a Vezina Trophy finalist last year with Colorado. Grubauer was 30-9-1 with a 1.95 GAA and .922 save percentage. He notched a league-high (tied with Semyon Varlamov) seven shutouts. Jordan Eberle was a solid get in the expansion draft. He amassed 33 points in 55 games and should provide veteran leadership in the locker room. Alex Wennberg notched 29 points in 56 games for the Panthers last season. Jaden Schwartz (21 points in 40 games) rounds out the first line. Schwartz has scored 20+ goals four times in nine full seasons. He needs to have a big year for a team that lacks scoring punch. Jared McCann can take another step forward after scoring 14 goals and dishing out 18 helpers in 43 games. He's from a well-coached Penguins' team who knows how to score goals. I wish Yanni Gourde was healthy to start the season. He scored 17 goals with 19 assists for the Tampa Bay Lightning. His championship pedigree should help, but Gourde will miss the first two months of the season recovering from shoulder surgery. The Krakin are top-heavy and have very little depth on offense. Seattle should have a top 10 defense if they can stay relatively healthy. I want to root for this team. Not sure where all the goals will come from over an 82-game season. The Pacific Division is not the toughest so that should help. Seattle home games should have plenty of fan support. My projection has Seattle ending with 95 points and a trip to the postseason. We'll need the Krakin to win a lot of low-scoring games. Very doable!      

 

 

 

 

Jeff's Seattle Kraken Prediction: (43-30-9, #8 seed out West, 95 points)

 

 

 

Jeff's Western Conference Season Point Total best bet: Seattle Krakin Over 91.5 (-125)

 

 

 

Next Week: Jeff's 2021-22 NHL Eastern Conference Spotlight team

 

 

 

Follow Jeff on twitter @jhsportsline



Jeff's 2021 Grade 1 Pacific Classic Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-08-18

2021 TVG Pacific Classic (G1) Preview

 

 

Venue: Del Mar Race Track, Del Mar, CA (Race 10)

 

 

Date: Saturday, August 21st, 2021

 

 

Time: 6:30 PT, 9:30 ET

 

 

 

 

 

#1 Tripoli (5-1), trained by John Sadler and ridden by Tiago Pereira

 

 

Was a close (1/2 length) second in the San Diego Handicap behind today's ML favorite Express Train. Tripoli has never won a graded stakes, something most of these rivals have accomplished. The 4-Year old Colt by Kitten's Joy has finished in the money in nine of 13 career starts (3-3-3), but has earned only $211,960. He's fast, but unproven at this 1 1/4 mile distance. He's local and his works have been "off the charts" at Del Mar leading up to this race. The inside post has no factor in this type of race. Toss.

 

 

 

 

#2 Tizamagician (5-1), trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Flavien Prat

 

 

Tizamagician is probably in the best form of all the local horses having three wins and two seconds from six starts 2021. All five were graded races including the G3 Cougar ll stakes at Del Mar on July 18th. That race was at the marathon distance of 1 1/2 miles. As was the Toyko City Cup where Tizamagician won in dominating fashion. Overall, Tiz has finished first or second in 12 of 18 (5-7-0) career starts with earnings of $427,851. He can run all day and his last four workouts at Del Mar were done with ease. His August 14th 5f work of 1:00.00 was ranked 8/82 horses. This horses has never been training better according to Hall of Fame trainer, Richard Mandella. Tiz's speed figures fit with this group and should be on or near the lead with a clean start. Horse for course. Contender.  

 

 

 

 

#3 Dr. Post (4-1), trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Joel Rosario

 

 

Dr. Post was the surprise runner-up in 2020 Belmont Stakes and has two wins in his 4-year old season. He also had a lackluster effort in the Met Mile. He's shipping in from the East Coast which is a concern. He'll likely get some support at the window. Dr. Post has finished in the money in six of nine (4-1-1) career starts with earnings of $700,635. No local workouts and the 4-year Colt by Quality Road has not won back-to-back races since his first two starts of his career. Todd Pletcher wins 22% in stakes races. Contender.

 

 

 

 

 

#4 Royal Ship (7/2) trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Mike Smith

 

 

The other runner for Hall of Fame trainer Mandella. Royal Ship finished third in the San Diego Handicap behind Tripoli and winner Express Train. Royal Ship is the only horse to beat Country Grammar this year. He did so in the Grade ll California Stakes at Santa Anita in April. Country Grammar is OUT with an ankle injury, but was considered to be a top older horse in the nation. Royal Ship has finished in the money in 11 of 14 (6-2-3) career starts with earrings of $293,305. The works are fast in the morning, but there's concern Royal Ship doesn't like the Del Mar surface. He's never run 1 1/4 miles at Del Mar and he's never finished better than third were the turf meets the surf. Contender.

 

 

 

 

 

#5 Express Train (3/1), trained by John Shirreffs and ridden by Juan Hernandez 

 

 

The logical favorite and for good reason. Has three wins at Del Mar, including last month's Grade 2 San Diego Handicap where he defeated four of these rivals. (Tripoli, Royal Ship, Magic On Tap, Sheriff Brown). Express Train has finished in the money in 10 of 12 (4-4-2) carer starts with earnings of $659,300. The 4-year Colt by Union Rags has never won back-to-back races. A really talented horse. With a clean start, he seems dangerous. Contender.

 

 

 

 

 

#6 Magic On Tap (20/1), trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Abel Cedillo

 

 

Wow! A Bob Baffert horse with a morning line of 20/1 in a graded stakes race. What's up? He won the Triple Bend Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita back in May, producing a low equibase speed figure of 89 for a graded stakes race. Followed that by finishing 5th in the San Diego Handicap (G2) with a better speed figure of 96. The 5-year old son by Tapit has finished first or second in 5 of 7 (3-2-0) career starts with earnings of $233,800. He's lightly raced as a 5-year old and the pedigree suggests he will love the 1 1/4 mile distanceBaffertt works his horses very fast and I think this horse is spent. Tough to back although I do love the jockey/trainer combo. Toss.

 

 

 

 

#7 Independence Hall (5/1) trained by M. McCarthy and ridden by F. Geroux

 

 

The third and final horse with a ML of 5/1. Has not won this year going 0-0-2. Has finished in the money in 7 of 10 (4-1-2) career starts with earnings of $654,400. Been nearly two years since the 4-year Colt by Constitution has won a graded race. None of the horses he's beaten has come back to win any significant race. I'm taking a hard stand against this horse. His speed figures just don't measure up to some of these individuals. Toss.

 

 

 

 

#8 Sheriff Brown (30/1) trained by T. Fincher and ridden by E. Maldonado 

 

 

Has hit the board in 14 of 21 (6-5-3) career starts with earnings of $232,811. The 5-year old son of Curlin won three straight Allowance Optional Claiming races before finishing 5th and 7th respectively in graded action. Very low speed figures. This horse has no business being in this race. Crazy things can happen. Like when Dare and Go defeated Cigar at 39/1 to win the Pacific Classic back in 1996. No way! Toss.

 

 

 

 

#9 Cupid's Claws (15/1) trained by C. Dollase and ridden by U. Rispoli

 

 

Was a well-beaten second to Tizamagician in the Grade 3 Cougar ll Stakes on July 18th at Del Mar. The veteran of six years has finished in the money in 11 of 22 (4-4-3) career starts with earnings of $216,940. He defeated Tizamagician in the Tokyo City Cup (G3) last September. Cupid's Claws posted a very slow 100 equibase speed figure and hasn't won since. Ironically, Tiz got his payback by winning the Tokyo City Cup this past April. Cupid's Claws can handle the distance for sure and has been training great. Toss.

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff's Pick:

Play: #2 Tizamagician to Win, Place, and Show.

 

 

Place: # 5 Express Train

 

 

Show: #3 Dr. Post

 

Good Luck,

Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline



Jeff's 2021 NBA Finals Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-07-05

Jeff's 2021 NBA Finals Preview 

 

By Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline

 

 

 

Why the Milwaukee Bucks will Win

 

The Bucks seem to have better spacing and ball movement when the "Greek Freak" is not on the floor. I would never say the Bucks are a better basketball team without Giannis. But, seeing is believing. After some huge performances early, the Bucks adjusted their pick-and-roll defense nicely against Trae Young, who was clearly not 100% in the ladder part of the Eastern Conf. finals. In 17 playoff games, the Bucks had a +6.1 point differential. They averaged 109.8 points per game (10th) while allowing 103.7 which ranks No. 2 against a much easier schedule than Phoenix. With or without Giannis, this is a deep and talented roster. A Bucks series win in six or seven games would not be shocking. The Bucks are 58-31 SU and 42-47 ATS this season in a weak conference.

 

 

 

Why the Phoenix Suns will Win 

 

The Suns have no weakness right now and having home-court advantage will help as well. This team is fast, long, hungry, and their team chemistry is off the charts. The Suns played in the very tougher Western Conference which is not breaking news. Phoenix is 63-25 SU and 53-33-2 ATS to date. That ATS number is ridiculously good and the Suns have exceeded expectations all season long. Are the odds-makers disrespecting the Suns? Time will tell. The Suns are ranked No. 2 in point differential (+7.0) this postseason in 16 games. They averaged 108.9 points per game (11th) while allowing 101.9 points per game which ranks No. 1 in the postseason. 

 

 

Head to Head

 

The Suns won both games by 1 point as four-point home dogs and three-point road underdogs respectively. Giannis had 80 points in the two games combined. If he's out/hobbled for this series, the Bucks are in serious trouble.  

 

Series Price: Phoenix Suns -190, Milwaukee Bucks +170

 

 

The Pick: Phoenix Suns -190

 

The Suns have the No. 1 defense, No. 1 ATS record in quite some time, Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Bridges, Crowder. Add in ascending talent Cameron Johnson and Cameron Payne.  Saric and Craig can hold their own too. This is a deep, talented, long team that comes in waves. Wings that can  shoot and defend. They can switch every pick-and-roll. To me, it seems like this team is on a mission. For Chris Paul or whatever, they are highly motivated, healthier, and the more talented team. Not sure how many games, but I'm taking the Suns to win the NBA Finals at -190. If Giannis is close to 100%, the series will be much closer but still lean to the Suns.

 

 

 

Good Luck,

Jeff Hochman



Betting the NFL Preseason in 2021

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2021-07-01

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2021

 

 

by Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline 

 

 

The Hall of Fame Game is the first NFL preseason game of the year, which closes the annual Hall of Fame enshrinement festivities. On August 5th, 2021, the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers will kick-off the preseason at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. The game marks the seventh appearance by each squad in the annual preseason classic which is tied for the most by any team. Both clubs own 3-3 straight-up record. The game starts at 8:00 PM E and can be viewed on Fox. 

 

You will hear people say "Don't bet on NFL Preseason Football". Big Mistake! It's actually easier than capping the regular season. In most cases you can read ahead of time the exact game plan for each team. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework--the preseason offers sharps and squares a tremendous opportunity to make a lot of money. Here are my personal keys, stats, systems, angles, reasons, and teams to consider when betting NFL Preseason football in 2021. 

 

 

 

 

1) Depth 

 

 

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they're the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two-and three-deep (sometimes four-deep) at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first or second series. A perfect example of a team like that this season, is none other than the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky, and Jake Fromm are a solid top three. They signed Davis Webb who has a big arm. Even if Josh Allen plays very little, the next three should give teams fits in August. Don't forget, the Bills have been running Sean McDermott's system for 4 years. The Bills went 4-0 ATS when we last saw the NFL preseason (2019). On the flip side, the Detroit Lions will break in a brand new head coach (see below), new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. Jared Goff, Tim Boyle, and David Blough will be learning a brand new offense. The Lions' defense will be learning a new scheme as well. I think this team is heading for a rough preseason! 

 

 

Quarterbacks and continuity are key. NFL preseason wagers, just like those during the regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have solid depth at QB and/or has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third and/or fourth-string defense. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2) Experience 

 

 

I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, experience can be a detriment. Most older players hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys "mail it in" during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless" and already have their "jobs" locked up. 

 

 

However, experience is a key factor when it comes to handicapping coaches/systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, the Seattle Seahawks have been running Pete Carroll's system since 2010. The Seahawks are going to be much sharper than a team that is going through drastic changes. Take the Philadelphia Eagles for example. They are breaking in a brand new head coach (Nick Sirianni), new offensive coordinator (Shane Steichen), and new defensive coordinator (Johnathan Gannon). Keying on clubs that have familiarity & continuity, and finding teams that are much less comfortable with their new system is a big key when wagering on preseason games. I can't stress this enough!  

 

 

 

 

 

3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)

 

 

We have seven for the 2021-22 season in alphabetical order by team. First year head coaches can be tricky, but generally perform very well in their first August home game.They went 6-1 ATS in their first home game five years ago, 5-2 ATS four years ago, 4-1 ATS three seasons ago and 6-2 ATS in 2019. That adds up to a a bankrolling 21-6 ATS mark the last four preseasons combined! A lot of expectations are put on these guys coming in. They all want to show the Owner, General Manager, players, and fans that he is the right man for the job. Setting the tone early means playing to win in the preseason. With just three games this preseason, it's even more important to win early.

 

 

 Arthur Smith  (Atlanta Falcons)

 

 

Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions)

 

 

David Culley  (Houston Texans)

 

 

Urban Meyer  (Jacksonville Jaguars)

 

 

Brandon Staley (LA Chargers)

 

 

Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles)

 

 

Robert Saleh (NY Jets)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4) Competition/Philosophy

 

 

 If you know how head coaches were raised and what their philosophies are than you will have a big advantage this August. I will give you one HC that treats the preseason as the regular season. That would be John Harabaugh of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are 17-0 ATS over the past four preseasons. Who needs Bitcoin? His 37-12 ATS overall record in the preseason would have made you a small fortune. On the flip side, Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams clearly hates the preseason. He uses August to scout his younger guys while keeping his starters and key backups healthy. The Rams went 1-3 ATS last year. Sean McVay is 5-8 ATS in his career and it could be much worse. The odds-makers are going to inflate the Rams' opponent lines this August. Be careful! Keep an eye on the Seattle Seahawks this August. Pete Carroll has always played to win in the preseason, evident by a 36-18 (66.6%) ATS record. Seattle went 3-1 ATS in the 2019 preseason after going 0-4 ATS in 2018. That was the first time Pete Carroll and the Seahawks never cashed at least one preseason game. I would expect Seattle to make bettors money once again this August.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 5) Motivation

 

 

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC's have different agendas when playing in August and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs. I gave you four very good examples above that should hold true once again this upcoming preseason. Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third or even the fourth back in the day. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the preseason and use it to evaluate their younger guys. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan will be. All you have to do is a little research from the local beat writers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

6) Scheduling 

 

 

 

The NFL preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some key players are a bit banged up then you can expect those guys to be watching in street clothes. Keep a close eye on how players from the Cowboys and Steelers come out of the Hall of Fame game. Also, NFL teams who play on the West Coast (with little to no humidity), and than travel to play a high humidity East Coast game. It would be wise to fade those West Coast teams, especially if installed as a favorite. This has worked extremely well over the past few years with the new OTA rules in place.

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff's NFL Preseason system to consider in 2021

 

 

If you are looking for a very profitable system/angle in the NFL preseason here is one to consider this year. Teams that get crushed by 28+ points in their first preseason game are a great bet in their very next game (week two). Mostly because the public overreacts and the lines get super inflated. NFL teams in this role are cashing 62% over the past decade. Choose wisely!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff's #1 NFL Preseason Team to "Play On" in 2021

 

 

 

Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings went 7-9 SU in 2020. Mike Zimmer is 18-8 ATS (69%) in the preseason and has always played to win August games, especially following a losing regular season. Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond, Jake Browning, and Nate Stanley seem capable to execute a veteran system. I especially like the Vikings -3 at home against the Colts in week two (August 21st). The Colts play 

Jeff went 16-6-1 ATS (including postseason) last year documented at The Sports Monitor of OK. Look for more articles in the coming weeks. Jeff was ranked No. 3 in the NFL two seasons ago, No. 3 in the 2017-18 NFL regular season, and No. 1 (tied) in the postseason at The Sports Monitor of OK, cashing just under 70%. Jeff has shown a profit in 8 straight football seasons, fully documented. Jeff is a 7x NFL Top 10 Handicapper. Early Bird Football season packages are now available.

 

 

Good Luck this Football Season!

 

 

Follow me on Twitter @jhsportsline