Winning Cappers
Jeff Hochman
        Now in year #24, Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline has become one of the most successful and well-respected handicappers in the entire Nation. Jeff is also a published sports writer, covering everything from Football to Horse Racing.

Jeff has his selections documented by the The Sports Monitor of OK. During that time, he has accumulated numerous seasonal titles in all the major sports including NHL Hockey. Jeff is your 2005-06 NBA Handicapping Champion at The Sports Monitor of OK and has over 25 Top 25 rankings in his career. Jeff is now an 8-time documented NHL Handicapping Champion after finishing No. 1 in win percentage and net profit in 2019-20. Jeff was ranked No. 2 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor of OK in 2014, No. 3 in 2017 and No. 3 in 2018, and No. 1 in 2019. Jeff was ranked #3 in MLB last season. Check out the rest of Jeff's documented records at The Sports Monitor of OK and the Sports Watch Monitor! 
 
Jeff isn't just a football expert though, as his Hockey, Baseball, Basketball, and are also highly respected. Nowhere else on the internet will you find free picks and top-rated picks from one of the finest documented sports handicappers in the nation.

Jeff is also the former Odds Manger for Picks Pal. This is not a hobby of mine! It's my business and I take it very seriously.

Making money in this business is all about money management and of course picking winners. I rate my selections 3 units, 4 units, 5 units, and top-rated 10 unit plays in the NFL, College Football, NHL, NBA/College Hoops, and MLB. All 5 unit plays are considered Best Bets. My Games of the Month and Year will always be graded as Top-rated 10 unit Gems. Example-- If you play $100 per unit and the line is -120, on a 3 unit play you would risk $360 to win $300.
 
Period:
Picks:

Jeff Hochman - All Sports 2022
SportWinsLosses  WCR    ROIWin%
    NFL12   3     55.2   4530.00   80 %    
    NCAAF2   3     0.0   -640.00   40 %    
    NBA6   6     0.0   -155.00   50 %    
    NCAAB7   12     0.0   -3634.00   37 %    
    MLB15   12     1.3   138.00   56 %    
    NHL24   21     7.7   1516.00   53 %    
    WNBA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    CFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    USFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    MMA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    BOXING0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NASCAR0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    SOCCER0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
        TOTALS66   57     3.1   1755.00   54 %    

Additional Statistics For 2022

Jeff Hochman

        Now in year #24, Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline has become one of the most successful and well-respected handicappers in the entire Nation. Jeff is also a published sports writer, covering everything from Football to Horse Racing.

Jeff has his selections documented by the The Sports Monitor of OK. During that time, he has accumulated numerous seasonal titles in all the major sports including NHL Hockey. Jeff is your 2005-06 NBA Handicapping Champion at The Sports Monitor of OK and has over 25 Top 25 rankings in his career. Jeff is now an 8-time documented NHL Handicapping Champion after finishing No. 1 in win percentage and net profit in 2019-20. Jeff was ranked No. 2 in the NFL at The Sports Monitor of OK in 2014, No. 3 in 2017 and No. 3 in 2018, and No. 1 in 2019. Jeff was ranked #3 in MLB last season. Check out the rest of Jeff's documented records at The Sports Monitor of OK and the Sports Watch Monitor! 
 
Jeff isn't just a football expert though, as his Hockey, Baseball, Basketball, and are also highly respected. Nowhere else on the internet will you find free picks and top-rated picks from one of the finest documented sports handicappers in the nation.

Jeff is also the former Odds Manger for Picks Pal. This is not a hobby of mine! It's my business and I take it very seriously.

Making money in this business is all about money management and of course picking winners. I rate my selections 3 units, 4 units, 5 units, and top-rated 10 unit plays in the NFL, College Football, NHL, NBA/College Hoops, and MLB. All 5 unit plays are considered Best Bets. My Games of the Month and Year will always be graded as Top-rated 10 unit Gems. Example-- If you play $100 per unit and the line is -120, on a 3 unit play you would risk $360 to win $300.
Period:
Picks:

Jeff Hochman - All Sports 2022
SportWinsLosses  WCR    ROIWin%
    NFL12   3     55.2   4530.00   80 %    
    NCAAF2   3     0.0   -640.00   40 %    
    NBA6   6     0.0   -155.00   50 %    
    NCAAB7   12     0.0   -3634.00   37 %    
    MLB15   12     1.3   138.00   56 %    
    NHL24   21     7.7   1516.00   53 %    
    CFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    USFL0   0     0.00   0.00   0 %    
    WNBA0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    NASCAR0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
    SOCCER0   0     0.0   0.00   0 %    
        TOTALS66   57     3.1   1755.00   54 %    

Additional Statistics For 2022

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Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Eastern Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-09-26

Jeff (JH-Sportsline) is an 8-time NHL handicapping champion with just one non-winning season in his 23+ year career fully documented at The Sports Monitor of OK. Get Every NHL service selection Jeff releases through the Stanley Cup Finals for just $599. It's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Save $200 if you signup on or before October 1st, 2022. 100% Profit Guaranteed!

 

Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Eastern Conference Spotlight Team

 

Ottawa Senators (2021-22: 33-42-7, 73 points)

 

The Senators are on the cusp of making the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Las Vegas agrees, increasing their point total 12.5 points from last season's total. Ottawa acquired a plethora of players that should help the offense and blue-line quite a bit. Alex DeBrincat accumulated 78 points (41 goals, 37 assists) in 81 games for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. He has increased his point total in three straight seasons and is on the verge of stardom. Aside from bolstering their forwards with a former second-round pick of the Blackhawks, the Senators rolled out the red carpet for veteran Claude Giroux. The seven-time All-Star brings in a veteran presence and proven leader in the locker room. His career numbers of 923 points (294 goals, 629 helpers) in 1018 games is hard to ignore. Tim Stutzle (58 points) looks to be on the verge of breaking out after accumulating 29 points two seasons ago. Look for another jump in production with all of that talent around him. Mathieu Joseph had 12 points in just 11 games after being traded to Ottawa last year. He was caught in a numbers game in Tampa Bay and wasn't given many opportunities to play. That will change in Ottawa and Joseph could be a nice sleeper in fantasy. A healthy Shane Pinto will add an additional scoring punch after playing just five games last season.

 

The defense has the potential to be much improved. I see more depth on their blue-line than any of the previous three years under head coach D.J. Smith. The 4th-year head coach has a history of improving in year four. The biggest acquisition on defense was Goalie Cam Talbot. With the Minnesota Wild, Talbot was 32-12-4 with a 2.76 GAA, and .911 save percentage in 48 starts. Backup Anton Forseberg had similar numbers for the Sens last season. He went 22-17-4 with a 2.82 GAA and .918 save percentage in 46 starts. Having a veteran goalie in Talbot should take pressure off Forsberg, who is more than capable of improving with another year of experience. I think Cam Talbot will start at least 60 games this season. Thomas Chabot is entering his sixth full season in Ottawa and takes up a lot of space on the blue-line. Jacob Larsson is a solid addition on defense after spending his first five seasons in Anaheim. The Ottawa Senators should be a fun group to watch this season. I am expecting the Senators to be in the playoff hunt all season long. They also have a very rich farm system with numerous players ready to contribute if they get the call from the AHL. 

 

Ottawa Senators Best Bet: Over 85.5 points

 

Ottawa Senators Preferred: Make Playoffs +220

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Western Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-09-19

Jeff (JH-Sportsline) is an 8-time NHL handicapping champion with just one non-winning season in his 23+ year career fully documented at The Sports Monitor of OK. Get Every NHL service selection Jeff releases through the Stanley Cup Finals for just $599. It's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Save $200 if you signup on or before October 1st, 2022. 100% Profit Guaranteed!

 

 

Jeff's 2022-23 NHL Western Conference Spotlight Team

 

Edmonton Oilers (2021-22: 49-27-6, 104 points)

 

The Edmonton Oilers played their best hockey after head coach Dave Tippett was terminated on February 10, 2022. Jay Woodcroft took over and the team went 26-9-3 with improved play across-the-board. Edmonton got swept by the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Finals. They will be on a mission this season. The Oilers have a dynamic one-two punch with the likes of Connor McDavid (44 goals, 79 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (55 goals, 55 helpers). A full season with forward Evander Kane and blue-liner Ryan Murray will be noticed immediately. There is a lot of size and skill on the blue-line. Evan Bouchard had a breakout season with 43 points (12 goals, 31 assists) in 81 games after accumulating just six points in 21 games across his previous two NHL seasons. If Philip Broberg can make a similar jump (1 goal, 2 assists in 23 games), the sky is the limit on defense.

 

Another year in Woodcroft's system can only help. Jack Campbell will take over in goal after his solid regular season in Toronto last year. Jack went 31-9-6 with a 2.64 GAA and .914 save percentage in 47 starts. He did not have a great postseason which is why the Maple leafs moved on. I think he's an upgrade between the pipes and Mike Smith is a solid backup. Jack Campbell has increased his win total in three straight seasons which bodes well for the Oilers this season.

 

 

Edmonton had a +143 shot differential and +38 goal differential last season. They were ranked No. 8 in Face-off win percentage. I would expect all of those stats to improve. This is a team that will make a serious run to the Western Conference Finals once again. With most teams, they will need to avoid significant injuries. Although, Edmonton has a lot of young talent in the AHL that could make it to the big club at some point this season. I think the experience Edmonton gained from last year's run will benefit this team in 2022-23.

 

 

Edmonton Oilers Best Bet: Over 103 points

 

Edmonton Oilers Preferred Bet: Win Pacific Division (+240)

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 1 Run Happy Travers Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-25

Jeff's Grade 1 Run Happy Travers Stakes Selection (Race 12)

 

 

Saratoga Race Track (5:44 PM ET)

 

#8 Zandon (5/1) to Win & Place

 

 

 

This would seem to be a competitive race on paper, except for those two longshots. I'm looking for value and it's backed by a strong double angle. Epicenter defeated Zandon by 1 1/2 lengths in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes on July 30th at Saratoga. Zandon earned a 109 Equibase speed figure, while Epicenter posted a 111 in victory. The discrepancy in the ML seems a bit too much. 

 

 

 

Zandon has two wins, two seconds, and two thirds in six career starts and will be making just his fifth start in 2022. Epicenter will be making his seventh start this year. This benefits Zandon in a big way, especially at Saratoga. Check this out. Trainer Steve Asmussen wins just 11%, with an ROI of -68% when his horses run in the second race off a 2-6 month layoff. On the flip side, Trainer Chad Brown wins 25%, with an ROI of +1% in that same role. The outside post seems perfect for his "sustained" running style. Jockey Flavien Prat is a master at playing the break and should have Zandon primed for a big stretch run. Hopefully, we'll get 7/2 or better! Good Luck, Jeff

 

 

 

Twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's 2022 NFL Season Win Predictions for all 32 teams

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-03

Jeff's 2022 NFL Season Win Predictions for all 32 teams

 

Arizona Cardinals UNDER 8.5  (Last Season: 11


Atlanta Falcons UNDER 5   (Last Season: 4)


Baltimore Ravens OVER 9.5   (Last Season: 8)


Buffalo Bills OVER 11.5   (Last Season: 11)


Carolina Panthers OVER 6.5   (Last Season: 5)


Chicago Bears UNDER 6.5   (Last Season: 6)


Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 10   (Last Season: 10)


Cleveland Browns UNDER 9.5   (Last Season: 10)


Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10   (Last Season: 12)


Denver Broncos UNDER 10   (Last Season: 7)


Detroit Lions OVER 6.5   (Last Season: 3)


Green Bay Packers OVER 10.5   (Last Season: 13)


Houston Texans UNDER 4.5   (Last Season: 4)


Indianapolis Colts OVER 10   (Last Season: 9)


Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 6.5   (Last Season: 3)


Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 10.5   (Last Season: 12)


Los Angeles Chargers OVER 10   (Last Season: 9)


Los Angeles Rams UNDER 10.5   (Last Season: 12)


Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 8.5   (Last Season: 10)


Miami Dolphins UNDER 9   (Last Season: 9)


Minnesota Vikings OVER 9   (Last Season: 8)


New England Patriots OVER 8.5   (Last Season: 10)


New Orleans Saints OVER 8.5   (Last Season: 9)


New York Giants OVER 7   (Last Season: 4)


New York Jets OVER 5.5   (Last Season: 4)


Philadelphia Eagles OVER 9.5   (Last Season: 9)


Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 7   (Last Season: 9)


San Francisco 49ers UNDER 10   (Last Season: 10)


Seattle Seahawks UNDER 5.5   (Last Season: 7)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 11.5   (Last Season: 13)


Tennessee Titans UNDER 9   (Last Season: 12)


Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 (Last Season: 7)


Jeff is a 7x Top 10 NFL handicapper, including one regular season handicapping title and one postseason title. Just three non-winning seasons since 2008, fully documented. Early bird packages are now on sale.


Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's 2022 Pac-12 Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-02

Jeff's 2022 Pac-12 Spotlight Team


Utah Utes (2021: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)


I think the Utes are in prime position to win the Pac-12 title once again. The Utes are stout on the offensive line, returning three starters from a team that ranked No. 21 last season. Junior QB Cameron Rising returns after leading the offense to a Pac-12 Championship. He passed for 2,943 yards with 20 TD's and just 5 interceptions. Tavion Thomas (1,108 rushing yards, 21 TD's) and Micah Bernard (523 rushing yards, 2 TD's) return to form a lethal 1-2 punch in the backfield. Favorite target Brant Kuithe returns after putting up 50 REC, 611 YDS, and 6 TD's last season. Rising should continue to improve after posting a QBR of 84.2, which ranked No. 6 last season. Utah led the nation in most starts by underclassmen in 2021. That bodes very well going forward. Kyle Whittingham is a great teacher and leader since arriving in 2004. His career record is 144-66 and is the all-time leader in wins at Utah. The defense was terrific ranking No. 21 last season at Football Outsiders. I think they will be even better this season. I would not completely rule out a trip to the playoffs!


Utah Best Bet: Over 8.5 -125 (Regular Season)


Utah Best Bet: Pac-12 Champs (+260)


Utah Preferred Bet: Utah +1.5 over Florida (Week 1)


Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's 2022 Atlantic Coast Conference Spotlight Team

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-08-01

Jeff's 2022 ACC (Coastal) Spotlight Team


Miami Hurricanes (2021: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS)


The Hurricanes get a major bump up this season thanks to former Ducks' head coach Mario Cristobal taking over on a 10-year, 80 million dollar contract. He led Oregon to a 35-13 record from 2017-2021, winning multiple conference championships. Tyler Van Dyke should improve after taking over for D'Eriq King, who went down with a season-ending shoulder injury in game one last season. The ACC rookie of the year finished the season with six straight games of at least 316 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, highlighted by a 426-yard performance as he out-dueled Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett to upset the than ranked No. 17 Pittsburgh Panthers. Miami should have no trouble replacing their top two receivers as offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has lots of experience breaking in new talent. The Hurricanes' defense should be much improved especially in the secondary where all three freshmen return. Miami was ranked No. 56 in FEI rankings (see below) at Football Outsiders and I'm expecting about a 15 point jump this season. Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.


Miami Hurricanes best bet: Over 8 wins -140


There is potential for the Hurricanes to win at least 10 games. They have a tough schedule at the end of the season with the likes of Clemson and Pittsburgh. They do get the Panthers at home. If the offensive line improves (#96) like I think they will, the Hurricanes will cash Over 8 wins rather easily.  


Jeff went 14-6 in College Football last season documented at The Sports Monitor of OK. Early Bird Packages now on sale!


Twitter: @jhsportsline



Betting the NFL Preseason in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-22

Betting the NFL Preseason in 2022


by Jeff Hochman of JH-Sportsline 

 

The Hall of Fame Game is the first NFL preseason game of the year, which closes the annual Hall of Fame enshrinement festivities. On August 4th, 2022, Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars will kick-off the preseason at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. The game marks the fourth appearance by the Raiders and second cameo for the Jags. The game starts at 8:00 PM E and can be viewed this year on NBC. 

 


You will hear people say "Don't bet on NFL Preseason Football". Big Mistake! It's actually easier than capping the regular season. In most cases, you can read ahead of time the exact game plan for each team. That doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win. Rather, we are just constantly looking for edges as bettors. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Here are my personal keys, stats, systems, angles, reasons, and teams to consider when betting NFL Preseason football in 2022. 

 

 
 
1) Depth 

 

 

 

This one is obvious. Jo public gets so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they're the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two-and three-deep (sometimes four-deep) at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first or second series. A perfect example is none other than the Buffalo Bills, who showed up on these pages last year. Josh Allen, Case Keenum, and Matt Barkley will be one of the better QB rotations this August. Don't forget, the Bills have been running Sean McDermott's system for 5 years now. Ken Dorsey is the new OC, after spending time (2019) as the Bills' QB coach and passing game coordinator (2021). Should be a smooth transition. The Bills went 4-0 ATS in 2019 and 2-1 ATS last season. On the flip side, the Houston Texans will break in a brand new head coach (Lovi Smith), new offensive coordinator (Pep Hamilton), and new defensive coordinator (Lovi Smith). Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel, and Kevin Hogan will be learning a brand new offense. The Texans' defense will be learning a brand new scheme as well. I think this team is heading for a rough preseason! 
 

 


Quarterbacks and continuity are key. NFL preseason wagers, just like those during the regular Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have solid depth at QB and/or has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third and/or fourth-string defense. 

 


 2) Experience 

 

I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, experience can be a detriment. Most older players hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys "mail it in" during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless" and already have their "jobs" locked up. 


However, experience is a key factor when it comes to handicapping coaches/systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, the Cincinnati Bengals have been running Zack Taylor's system for three full seasons. The Bengals are going to be much sharper than a team that is going through drastic changes. Take the Chicago Bears for example. They are breaking in a brand new head coach (Matt Eberfus), new offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy), and new defensive coordinator (Alan Williams). All three will be making their coaching debut. Keying on clubs that have familiarity & continuity, and finding teams that are much less comfortable with their new system should give you an edge in the preseason. I can't stress this enough!  
 


 3) First-Year Head Coaches with new team (Full Season)


We have a whopping 10 for the 2022-23 season in alphabetical order by team. First year head coaches can be tricky, but generally perform very well in their first August home game.They went 6-1 ATS in their first home game six years ago, 5-2 ATS five years ago, 4-1 ATS four seasons ago and 6-2 ATS in 2019. Last year, this angle was a losing proposition going 2-6 ATS. The spreads were much higher than in previous years and the reduced schedule could have affected this angle. Maybe "Vegas" has caught on or it was just a 1-year anomaly. That still adds up to a bankrolling 23-12 ATS ledger past five preseasons combined! A lot of expectations are put on these guys coming in. They all want to show the owner, GM, players, and fans that he is the right man for the job. Setting the tone early means playing to win in the preseason. Be selective. Don't blindly play all 10 teams in their first home game.


 Matt Eberfus  (Chicago Bears)


Nathaniel Hackett (Denver Broncos)


Lovie Smith  (Houston Texans)


Doug Pederson  (Jacksonville Jaguars)


Josh McDaniels (Las Vegas Raiders)


Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphis)


Kevin O'Connell (Minnesota Vikings)


Dennis Allen (New Orleans Saints)


Brian Daboll (NY Giants)


Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)


4) Competition/Philosophy


 
If you know how head coaches were raised and what their philosophies are than you will have a big advantage this August. I will give you one HC that treats the preseason as the regular season. That would be John Harabaugh of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are 20-0 ATS over the past five preseasons!! That is not a misprint. His 40-12 ATS overall record in the preseason would have made you a small fortune. On the flip side, Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams clearly hates the preseason. He uses August to scout his younger guys while keeping his starters and key backups healthy. The Rams went 0-3 ATS last year. Sean McVay is 5-10 ATS in his career and now comes off a Super Bowl victory. The odds-makers are going to inflate the Rams' opponent lines this August. Be careful! Keep an eye on the New England Patriots this August. Bill Belichick has always played to win in the preseason, evident by a 9-2 (81.8%) ATS record the last three seasons. NE went 3-0 ATS last year. Bill Belichick owns a 50-35 ATS record in the preseason.


 
5) Motivation

 

If you watched the NFL for any number of years you should know that not every Head Coach cares about winning in the NFL Preseason. Different HC's have different agendas when playing in August and they all pretty much stick to their beliefs. I gave you four very good examples above that should hold true once again this upcoming preseason. Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third or even the fourth back in the day. Some coaches just mess around and tinker with their lineups during the preseason and use it to evaluate their younger guys. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan will be. All you have to do is a little research from the local beat writers. Truth be told, this is getting more difficult to obtain than in years past

 


 
6) Scheduling 

 

The NFL preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. The two teams that play the Hall of Fame Game are a good bet to fade in their next game. If some key players are a bit banged up then you can expect those guys to be watching in street clothes. Keep a close eye on how players from the Raiders and Jaguars come out of the Hall of Fame game. Also, watch for NFL teams who play on the West Coast (with little to no humidity), and then travel to play a high humidity East Coast game. It would be wise to fade those West Coast teams, especially if installed as a favorite. This has worked extremely well over the past few years with the new strict OTA rules in place.


Jeff's NFL Preseason system to consider in 2022


If you are looking for a very profitable system/angle in the NFL preseason here is one to consider this year. Teams that get crushed by 28+ points in their first preseason game are a great bet in their very next game (week two). Mostly because the public overreacts and the lines get super inflated. NFL teams in this role are cashing 59.8% over the past decade. Choose wisely!


Jeff's #1 NFL Preseason Team to "Play On" in 2022


Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell went 0-3 ATS last year in the preseason. I think we get good value on a team that has more depth than most people realize. I like playing second year head coaches in the preseason that had a winning ATS (11-6) record the year before. Just a side note. The Lions' offensive line is ranked No. 10 by Pro Football Focus heading into this season. Fantasy players will want to draft T.J. Hockenson (TE) and D.J. Chark as a late round sleeper at WR. Book it! 

 

Jeff has earned a profit in 14 of the past 17 NFL seasons, fully documented. Jeff is a 7x NFL Top 10 Handicapper, including a handicapping title in the regular season and postseason. Early Bird Football season packages are now available!


Good Luck this Football Season!


Follow Jeff on Twitter @jhsportsline



Jeff's 2022-23 NFL Spotlight Teams (NFC & AFC)

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-13

The 2022-23 NFL season will be here before you know it. It's now time to start thinking about what handicapper or service you will be investing in. Here are my documented NFL records for the regular season and playoffs since 2008. As you can see, just three non-winning seasons which happened to be in 2010, 2011, and 2021. You can view my past records at The Sports Monitor of OK for verification.


Jeff's Early bird NFL package is on sale now. Sign up on or before August 31st and save $300. After August 31st the price will be $999. Everything's included!! NFL Preseason, NFL Regular Season, and the NFL Postseason.


2021 Regular Season: 12-16-1 (-$2670) 2021 Playoffs: 2-1 (+$910)


2020 Regular Season: 13-6-1 (+$4124) 2020 Playoffs: 3-0 (+$1,320)


2019 Regular Season: 18-11 (+$2841) 2019 Playoffs: 1-1-1 (-$40)


2018 Regular Season: 23-13-1 (+$5599) 2018 Playoffs: 2-2 (+$595)


2017 Regular Season: 25-15-1 (+$2599) 2017 Playoffs: 4-0-1 (+$1900)


2016 Regular Season: 21-12-1 (+3040) 2016 Playoffs: 2-1 (+$465)


2015 Regular Season: 23-24 (+$370) 2015 Playoffs: 3-1 (+$1100)


2014 Regular Season: 27-12 (+$5500) 2014 Playoffs: 4-1 (+$1250)


2013 Regular Season: 21-16 (+$1080) 2013 Playoffs: 3-2 (+$1100)


2012 Regular Season: 27-22 (+$860) 2012 Playoffs: 4-4 (-$200)


2011 Regular Season: 20-20 (-$240) 2011 Playoffs: 3-4 (-$680)


2010 Regular Season: 28-24 (+$1600) 2010 Playoffs: 2-6 (-$1970)


2009 Regular Season: 33-27 (+$3170) 2009 Playoffs: 6-3 (+$1850)






Jeff's 2022-23 National Football Conference Spotlight Team


Carolina Panthers (5-12 last season)


Jeff's 2022-23 Outlook: My projections/models have the Carolina Panthers winning 7.9 games!


The Carolina Panthers' offense was clicking until RB/WR Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury. He's key to the Panthers' success because teams really need extra preparation time for his skill-set. When he's out, opposing defenses can just focus on stopping the team, rather than trying to contain McCaffrey. His health is key to the Panthers winning at least 6 games. Carolina signed RT Taylor Moton who will be a major upgrade. The offensive line should benefit with another year of experience from LT Ikem Ekwonu, who struggled in pass protection last season. The defense is better than you think. Carolina had the 7th-best defensive line at Football Outsiders last season. Carolina was ranked No. 24 in team defense (DVOA) in 2020 and No. 15 last season. Matt Rhule has a good history in his third season, going 10-3 at Temple and 11-2 at Baylor. Thanks to Marc Lawrence's Playbook on the Matt Rhule stat.


I realize the NFL & NCAAF are apples and oranges. It's just hard to ignore that the Panthers' defense (DVOA) ranked higher than six teams that made the playoffs last year. The Panthers ranked No. 29 in points scored (304) ahead of Houston (280), NYG (258), and Jacksonville (253). What's the old saying, if you have two QB's, you have none. I think Baker Mayfield will be a solid backup after being "humbled" in Cleveland. Instead of shooting commercials, Mayfield can now focus on improving his skill-set. With expected improvement from Sam Darnold, this team should win at least 7 games. The big key for me is the hiring of Ben McAdoo to run the offense. Yes, that McAdoo who coached the Giants (with an aging Eli Manning at QB) in 2016, going 8-3 in one-score games. They were also one of the least-penalized teams as well. Ben has a deeper pro background and his time working with Aaron Rodgers adds merit in the locker room.


The Panthers should have success ATS early in the season as teams adjust to their new offense. I don't think the Panthers will "show" much in the preseason, although they should have one of the better QB rotations in August. I think Sam Darnold will take major steps forward in his fifth season as a pro. This is when young QBs start figuring things out and I think we'll see it happen this season.


How to Bet the Carolina Panthers in 2022?


The big difference between professionals and the public is simple. Professional bettors bet numbers, while the public bets on teams. I will be looking for advantages throughout the season depending on the number. I am very interested when the Panthers are underdogs of 3.5 to 6.5 points. I also like the Carolina Panthers +4.5 in Week 1. Don't forget, the Panthers started 3-0 last season behind a ferocious defense, before everything fell apart.


Panthers Best Bet:


Over 6 wins (+105)


Panthers Preferred Bet


Week 1 (Carolina +4.5 over Cleveland)






Jeff's 2022-23 American Football Conference Spotlight Team


Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1 last season)


Jeff's 2022-23 outlook: My projections/models average 9.2 wins! I am way higher on the Steelers than Las Vegas.


The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off an up-and-down season, where they made the playoffs after having to win their final two games. There were many issues with this team last year, including ranking dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (146.1). You just know Tomlin and company won't accept having the worst run defense two years in a row. They hired Teryl Austin as defensive coordinator. He's very familiar with the Steelers, having been with the team since 2019 and has 18 years of coaching experience. Pittsburgh led the league in QB sacks (55) while blitzing just 24.9% (17th) of the time. The Steelers allowed 398 points which is the most in the Mike Tomlin era. They scored just 343 and still managed a winning record. I like QB Kenny Pickett more than most. I think Kenny's mobility and familiarity with the stadium/surroundings will make his transition smoother than normal.


The Steelers went 0-2 against the Cincinnati Bengals and 4-0 vs. the rest of the division. They are always competitive in division games. What I really like about this team going forward has nothing to do with personnel or coaching. It's all about the schedule. Pittsburgh won't leave the Eastern time zone! The Steelers will travel just 6,512 miles this season, which is the fewest of any NFL team. It's the fourth time since 2014 Pittsburgh will travel the fewest miles, and it's worth noting in each of the previous three years they won the AFC North. Also, teams that travel the fewest miles have averaged 9.6 wins over the past eight seasons. Thanks to CBS Sports for that nugget on the schedule.


How to Bet the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2022?


The big difference between professionals and the public is simple. Professional bettors bet numbers, while the public bets on teams. I will be looking for advantages throughout the season depending on the number. I am very interested when the Steelers come up as road dogs of 3.5 to 8 points. I think the Steelers will have success ATS early in the year as teams get more and more tape on Kenny. You can't convince me that KP won't be the starter from day one, unless he's injured of course. I like the experience of backup Mich Trubisky should things go sideways for Pickett. I don't see that happening!


Steelers Best Bet


OVER 7 wins (-125)


Steelers Preferred Bet


Make Playoffs +275 (Yes)


Follow Jeff on Twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 1 Caesars Belmont Derby Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-07

Jeff's Grade 1 Caesars Belmont Derby Selection

 

Saturday, July 9th, 2022 @ 5:12 PM E

 

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:12 PM E)


We like #10 Nations Pride (5/1) across-the-board quite a bit. This 3-year old colt, owned & bred by Godolphin, has finished first or second in five of six career starts. Nations Pride finished 8th, in a "salty" field of 17 when running at Epsom Downs in a Group 1 event on June 4th. See what I did there? The 1 1/2 miles was too far and he encountered major traffic trouble. First start in the USA is only a minor concern. Trainer, Charlie Appleby and Godlophin have been together since 2013. I trust that combo with my money. Appleby wins 50% from 18 starters, past two years in all turf routes for an ROI of +98%. Also, Appleby wins 55% from 11 starters when his horse is off 1-2 months, for an ROI of +115%. I was hoping for 8/1 on the ML, but the track handicapper is very sharp. There is a 50% chance of showers in the morning. A softer turf course makes this selection even stronger. Fire Away!


Good Luck and Stay Safe!


Twitter:@jhsportsline 



Jeff's 2022-23 NFL Spotlight Team (AFC)

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-07-04

The 2022-23 NFL season will be here before you know it. It's now time to start thinking about what handicapper or service you will be investing in. Here are my documented NFL records for the regular season and playoffs since 2008. As you can see, just three non-winning seasons which happened to be in 2010, 2011, and 2021. You can view my past records at The Sports Monitor of OK for verification.


Jeff's Early bird NFL package is on sale now. Sign up on or before August 31st and save $300. After August 31st the price will be $999. Everything's included!! NFL Preseason, NFL Regular Season, and the NFL Postseason.


2021 Regular Season: 12-16-1 (-$2670) 2021 Playoffs: 2-1 (+$910)


2020 Regular Season: 13-6-1 (+$4124) 2020 Playoffs: 3-0 (+$1,320)


2019 Regular Season: 18-11 (+$2841) 2019 Playoffs: 1-1-1 (-$40)


2018 Regular Season: 23-13-1 (+$5599) 2018 Playoffs: 2-2 (+$595)


2017 Regular Season: 25-15-1 (+$2599) 2017 Playoffs: 4-0-1 (+$1900)


2016 Regular Season: 21-12-1 (+3040) 2016 Playoffs: 2-1 (+$465)


2015 Regular Season: 23-24 (+$370) 2015 Playoffs: 3-1 (+$1100)


2014 Regular Season: 27-12 (+$5500) 2014 Playoffs: 4-1 (+$1250)


2013 Regular Season: 21-16 (+$1080) 2013 Playoffs: 3-2 (+$1100)


2012 Regular Season: 27-22 (+$860) 2012 Playoffs: 4-4 (-$200)


2011 Regular Season: 20-20 (-$240) 2011 Playoffs: 3-4 (-$680)


2010 Regular Season: 28-24 (+$1600) 2010 Playoffs: 2-6 (-$1970)


2009 Regular Season: 33-27 (+$3170) 2009 Playoffs: 6-3 (+$1850)


2008 Regular Season: 33-23 (+$5720) 2008 Playoffs: 6-2 (+$1650)



Jeff's 2022-23 American Football Conference Spotlight Team


Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1 last season)


Jeff's 2022-23 outlook: My projections/models average 9.2 wins! I am way higher on the Steelers than Las Vegas.


The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off an up-and-down season, where they made the playoffs after having to win their final two games. There were many issues with this team last year, including ranking dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (146.1). You just know Tomlin and company won't accept having the worst run defense two years in a row. They hired Teryl Austin as defensive coordinator. He's very familiar with the Steelers, having been with the team since 2019 and has 18 years of coaching experience. Pittsburgh led the league in QB sacks (55) while blitzing just 24.9% (17th) of the time. The Steelers allowed 398 points which is the most in the Mike Tomlin era. They scored just 343 and still managed a winning record. I like QB Kenny Pickett more than most. I think Kenny's mobility and familiarity with the stadium/surroundings will make his transition smoother than normal.

The Steelers went 0-2 against the Cincinnati Bengals and 4-0 vs. the rest of the division. They are always competitive in division games. What I really like about this team going forward has nothing to do with personnel or coaching. It's all about the schedule. Pittsburgh won't leave the Eastern time zone! The Steelers will travel just 6,512 miles this season, which is the fewest of any NFL team. It's the fourth time since 2014 Pittsburgh will travel the fewest miles, and it's worth noting in each of the previous three years they won the AFC North. Also, teams that travel the fewest miles have averaged 9.6 wins over the past eight seasons. Thanks to CBS Sports for that nugget on the schedule.


How to Bet the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2022?


The big difference between professionals and the public is simple. Professional bettors bet numbers, while the public bets on teams. I will be looking for advantages throughout the season depending on the number. I am very interested when the Steelers come up as road dogs of 3.5 to 8 points. I think the Steelers will have success ATS early in the year as teams get more and more tape on Kenny. You can't convince me that KP won't be the starter from day one, unless he's injured of course. I like the experience of backup Mich Trubisky should things go sideways for Pickett. I don't see that happening!



Steelers Best Bet


OVER 7 wins -125


Steelers Preferred Bet


Make Playoffs +275 (Yes)


Follow Jeff on Twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's 2022 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-06-08

Jeff's 2022 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Selection (Race 11)


Saturday, June 11th @ 6:45 PM E


#6 Mo Donegal (5/2) to Win & Place


This 3-year old colt by Uncle Mo is bred for this distance more than any other horse in the field. Past five years in all dirt routes (excluding all weather tracks), the progeny of Uncle Mo win 20%, and finish in-the-money 50% of the time. Strong. The Dam is Callingmissbrown. She's had one runner make it to the track with three wins in five starts (60%). Mo Donegal broke his maiden at Belmont Park and also has a third place finish at what they call Big Sandy. He seems to like the track and we get Irad Ortiz who has a lot of experience at this track. Rich Strike is off my ticket. Improving speed figures in six straight races, with just one win to show for it. Also, jockey Sonny Leon has never raced at Belmont Park and he's 0-for-7 in all 12 furlong races (dirt and turf). Rich Strike always raced well at Churchill Downs (broke maiden by 17 1/4 lengths), but today will be a completely different experience. Hopefully, we can get 7/2 or better!


Play #6 Mo Donegal (5/2) to Win & Place


Late Pick 4 or Late Pick 5 players:  (#1 We the People, #3 Nest, #5 Creative Minister, #6 Mo Donegal)


twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-05-18

Jeff's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Selection (Race 13) #5 Early Voting (7/2) Win & Place I have been on the Epicenter bandwagon, picking him to win his past three races. At 6/5 and two week turnaround, I'm jumping off after his career-best 105 Equibase speed figure. Chad Brown skipped the Kentucky Derby to train this 3-year colt by Gun Runner and specifically point to this race. Early Voting finished second by a nose to Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 9th at Aqueduct. Mo Donegal came back to run well in the Kentucky Derby and should be one of your favorites in the Belmont Stakes. Not sold on the filly Secret Oath, coming back after 15 days while sporting a dosage over 8. Early Voting is fresh, with improving speed figures in all three career starts. Chad Brown wins 27% with horses returning from 1-2 month layoff. I really like this new shooter quite a bit! Twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's Top 5 Kentucky Derby Win Contenders

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-05-03

Here are my Top 5 win contenders (in no paticular order) for Saturday's Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. 

 

 

#3 Epicenter (7/2), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Joel Rosario

 

After finishing sixth at first asking, this 3-year old son of Not This Time has been first or second in all five starts (4-1-0) with career earnings of $1,010,640. Has posted four straight 97 Equibase speed figures and still has room to improve. Easily won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in front-running fashion in his final prep. I don't think the extra distance will be a problem. The progeny of Not This Time are winning 23% (+6% ROI) in all dirt routes over the past five years. Looks like rain Friday and than not as heavy on Saturday. Epicenter has a win on an off track at Churchill Downs. Major player & my top pick. See below.

 

 

#6 Messier (8/1), trained by Tim Yakteen & ridden by John Velazquez

 

Previously trained by Bob Baffert. You know the story. Finished second by 2 1/4 lengths in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, earning a solid 99 Equibase speed figure. The horse that finishes second in the Santa Anita Derby usually outruns his odds in this race. Has finished first or second in all six career starts, earning $435,600. That's hard to ignore. Has never run at Churchill Downs and nary a start on a wet track. Win Contender!  

 

 

#10 Zandon (3/1), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Flavien Prat

 

Has finished in-the-money all four career starts (2-1-1) with earnings of $713,000. Zandon broke his maiden at first asking in a MSW race at Belmont Park and than race second in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. This 3-year old colt by Upstart made his 2022 debut running second in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds than shipped to Keeneland to win the Grade 1 Blue Grass on an off track listed as good. He earned a career-best 107 Equibase speed figure and owns the fastest late-pace speed figure of the bunch (120.5). Naturally, a bounce could happen but this horse is very talented and Brown/Prat combo win 27% together. Zandon has a sustained running style and must navigate through traffic turning for home. Prat is one of the best at his craft and is no stranger winning grade 1 races. Win Contender!

 

 

#12 Taiba (12/1), trained by Tim Yakteen & ridden by Mike Smith

 

Moved to the Yakteen barn just like Messier so they could earn points for this race. If you like Messier, than you have to like this son of Gun Runner, who are bred to run all day and all night. Two wins from two career starts, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby earning a 102 Equibase speed figure. Should be on or near the lead with a clean break. Owns the fastest early pace (114.7), fastest middle pace (103.2), and 7th fastest late speed figure (101). No starts on an off track is a concern. Also, Taiba has only run in California and didn't start as a 2-year old. Since 1937, the record of horses in the Kentucky Derby without a race at age two is 0-for-58 since. UGH! Maybe this angle is due to lose. "Money" Mike Smith got that nickname for a reason. Win Contender! 

 

 

#5 Smile Happy (20/1), trained by Kenneth McPeek & ridden by Cory Lanerie

 

Why is this horse 20/1? Certainty has the bloodlines to win this type of race. This 3-year old son by Run Happy (maybe you heard of him) has been first or second in all four career starts (2-2-0) with earnings of $549,810. Smile Happy broke his maiden in his first start at Keeneland last October and followed with a win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. He made his 2022 debut finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds. Finished 2nd to Zandon in the Grade 2 Blue Grass in his final prep, earning a career-best 104 Equibase speed figure. He's live here and his chances go way up on a wet track. If the track is wet, you will want to play this horse across-the-board. The Dam (Pleasant Smile) has produced numerous winners (5-for-56) on off tracks, and we know the Run Happy horses have embraced wet tracks. His works in the morning have been eye-popping and should be rolling late. Owns the 3rd fastest late-pace speed figure (111.5) in the field. Live Longshot!

 

 

How to bet the 2022 Kentucky Derby:

 

Play #3 Epicenter (7/2) to Win, Place, and Show

 

Play #6 Messier (8/1) to Place and Show

 

Play #5 Smile Happy (20/1) to Show 

 

$0.50 Trifecta Box (3, 5, 6, 10, 12)

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby Selection

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-31

Saturday, April 1st (7:35 PM E)


Grade 1 Arkansas Derby (Race 12)


 

#9 We the People (7/2) across-the-board


This son by Constitution has two wins from two starts at Oaklawn Park. Owns the fastest middle pace speed figure (97.4) and the fastest late pace (113.5) in this field. Will need a clean break to establish position into the first turn. That will be key from the #9 post. Flavien Prat could have rode Doppelganger. Maybe he knows something. His past three works over this track (Oaklawn Park) have been eye-opening. I believe this horse will take another step forward and be a major factor at a decent price.


twitter:@jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-25

Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes 


Saturday, March 26th (4:00 PM PT)


Santa Anita Race Track (Race 7)  


 

Play #9 Carpe Vinum (12/1) to Win, Place, and Show

 

Handicapping horse racing is about projecting. You can't just rely on past performances. Leading jockey Flavien Prat rode Carpe Vinum last race, and said after he wants to ride her again. Unfortunately, Prat is in Dubai. Ryan Curatolo gets a 4 pound bug and he fits CV nicely. This horse needs more distance and finally gets it. Trainer Phil D'Amato was beaming after her last work and D'Amato is red hot--- winning 22% over the past 30 days. Carpe Vinum has the fastest late-pace speed figure of this bunch. She's sitting on a huge race. Tremendous value. You heard it here first!

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline 



Jeff's Top 3 MLB Season Win Total best bets in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-25

JEFF'S TOP 3 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL BEST BETS IN 2022
 

 

No. 1 San Francisco Giants Under 85.5 -115


The Giants benefited from career years by aging stars Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford last season. Busty Posey retired and a major regression is in store for this Giants team. The Dodgers and Padres figure to be really good once again. The Diamondbacks and Rockies will playing all year with revenge against the Giants. They stay relatively healthy in their rotation and that doesn't always work out two years in a row. PECOTA projects 77.8 wins. My models have it closer to 80. Lots of wiggle room. Either way, it's my favorite Over/Under play for 2022.


 

No . 2 LA Angels Over 84 -110


I can't believe how low this is considering the rest of the division will be top heavy with the Astros. The Angels have not won 85 games since 2015. They have the two favorites to win the AL MVP and added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation. He fits nicely right behind Ohtani and Reid Detmers is a nice prospect who doesn't have a rotation spot right now. Good problem to have. Detmers would have made my list if he was penciled in as the 5th starter. He's listed as the 6th starter. My point, the Angles have an improved pitching staff and they should have no trouble scoring runs. They need to stay relatively healthy and a playoff appearance just might happen. PECOTA projects 88.4 wins. I have it at 89, and really like this team going forward!


 

No. 3 LA Dodgers Over 97.5 -115


This one seems too easy. In the past four full seasons (not counting pandemic), the LA dodgers have averaged 102 victories. You might say, they are not as deep as last year. True, but the Dodgers have deep pockets and always make the deadline deal (taking on salary) that improves their chances of winning. That's what you want when betting Over season win totals. The Dodgers have a rich farm system still and can tap into that market at any time. The Dodgers offense should be sick! You will see some new young faces on this Dodgers' team that will contribute to at least 99 wins. PECOTA projects 101. wins. This is a blue chip stock. Go Over 97.5!


Twitter: @jhsportsline
 



Jeff's Top 5 Left-handed Starters Age 27 or Younger in 2022

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-24

The elite left-handed starters have a big advantage just for the simple fact that most players see a lot more right-handed pitching. Look for teams that have not faced a Quality Left-handed starter for some time (five games or more) and you will have a nice winning investment. Here are my Top 5 Left-handed starting pitchers age 27 or younger going forward for the 2022 season. Baseball is back baby!

 

 

 

No. 1   Julio Urias   (LA Dodgers)         AGE: 25          (2021: 20-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)

 

 

 

Was No. 3 on this list in 2020-21 and will occupy the top spot until he's no longer eligible. Julio had a breakout year for the Blue Crew last season. For his career, Urias has 427 strikeouts in 424.2 innings with a 32-10 record and 3.09 ERA. The Dodgers have refused every trade when teams asked for Julio ever since his rookie year back in 2016. At age 25, he is no longer on a restricted pitch count, although the Dodgers are extremely analytical in their decision making. His "stuff" is dynamic featuring a mid to upper 90s fastball, cutter, slider, curve-ball and devastating change-up. I would expect another tremendous season. The Dodgers' offense looks unstoppable (especially with DH), so reaching 20 wins seems obtainable. Dodger Stadium ranked the 12th toughest in runs scored last year according to ESPN Park Factors. Grab him as an Ace in the 2nd round. Love him! 

 

 

 

No. 2  Trevor Rogers    (Miami Marlins)           AGE: 24        (2021: 7-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)

 

 

 

Trevor is about to have his best season of his career. Thanks, Captain Obvious! Last season, Rogers recorded 157 strikeouts in just 133 IP. If he gets more run support this year, you're looking at 15-20 wins. I would expect a slight regression in ERA and WHIP on the road. At home, Marlins Park ranked the toughest stadium in runs scored by ESPN Park Factors. The strikeouts will always be there with a sterling 28.8% K-rate. Huge in fantasy. Good for straight wagers too especially as underdogs. You can draft him in the 2nd to sixth round depending on your needs. Don't miss out. These young stud lefties are hard to find. Should be an All-Star in 2022!

 

 

 

No. 3   Aaron Ashby      (Milwaukee Brewers)       AGE: 23    (2021: 3-2, 4.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

 

 

Appeared in 13 games (4 starts) last season and recorded 39 strikeouts in 31.2 innings. Ashby averaged 96.5 MPH on his sinking fastball last season, while routinely touching 97-99. His slider is devastating (82-85 MPH), with sharp break leading to a 42% strikeout rate. His third best pitch is an above average upper 80s diving change-up that produces a lot of strikeouts. Ashby also has an upper 70s looping curve-ball which is just for show. The Brewers want less walks from Ashby which should come with more experience. The Brewers are high on him and you should be too. Ashby will be battling for the 5th spot this spring. He's too talented not to crack the rotation at some point. Keep an eye on him. Don't forget, at least 50% of all starters will land on the IL at some point. He's unlikely to win 15-20 games, but 8-10 wins with 175 K's in 150 IP will help your team. Mid to Late round steal!

 

 

 

No. 4  Tarik Skubal            (Detroit Tigers)         AGE: 25      (2021: 8-12, 4.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)

 

 

 

Tarik Skubal will be the fourth starter to begin the season. His numbers have improved in each of his first two big-league seasons. Last year, Skubal continued his upward trend with 164 strikeouts in 149.1 IP. His 26.1% career K-rate is very impressive. Skubal allowed 35 Home Runs last season, but don't let that scare you from backing or drafting him. Young pitchers only get better with more innings, and Detroit's home stadium ranked as the 6th-toughest in runs scored last year. A lot of that had to with the Tigers' offense. I get that. Detroit's offense should be better with the addition Baez and Schoop. Look for a "breakout" season in terms of Innings, strikeouts, and hopefully 10+ wins. Another mid to late round steal!

 

 

 

No. 5   Jesus Luzardo         (Miami Marlins)     AGE: 24     (2021: 6-9, 6.61 ERA, 1.61 WHIP)

 

 

Another Marlin! The numbers don't jump off the page, but even the best pitchers can struggle early in careers. The Marlins are very exited of what they will see from this highly touted prospect. Jesus throws in the upper 90s, with a tremendous slider, curve-ball, and change-up. Last year, he recorded 98 strikeouts in 95.1 innings shuffling between the bullpen and starter. The Marlins have Luzardo listed as their fifth starter, which should help his mental game. Marlins Park surrendered the fewest runs in all of baseball last season according to ESPN Park Factors. Look for 10-15 wins with more strikeouts than innings pitched in 2022. The Marlins should also be better on offense. PECOTA projects 707 runs scored, which is more than they scored last season (623). Late round sleeper with ginormous upside!

 

 

Jeff's success in MLB is well-documented since 1998. Jeff was ranked No. 1 in MLB last season at The Sports Monitor of OK. Not a one time thing. Jeff was ranked No. 5 two seasons ago, and No. 3 three years ago. Numerous Top 10 rankings as well. Jeff's Early Bird MLB package now available! It's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind. Just $499 for the entire season thru World Series. Save $200! 

 

 

Good Luck this Baseball Season!

 

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline 



Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-03-03

Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Preview (Race 11)

 

Saturday, March 5th, 2022 (5:00 PM PT)

 

 

#1 Spielberg (8/1), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Abel Cedillo

 

Purchased for 1 million dollars.This 4-year old Chestnut Colt by Union Rags has finished in-the-money in 7 of 11 (3-3-1) starts with career earnings of $475,900. Finished 4th in the San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22, earning a 96 Equibase speed figure. The workouts have been fast, but Baffert is known for that. If you see a Baffert horse with a slow work pattern that would be a red flag. Improving speed figures in three straight races is encouraging. The one big question remains. Has this horse reached its peek. My answer would be yes. Never a good sign when Prat chooses to ride a different horse. I don't think this horse can handle 1 1/4 miles. I do like the combination of Baffert and Cedillio. Toss!

 

 

#2 Why Why Paul Why (6/1), trained by Michael McCarthy & ridden by Juan Hernandez

 

Funny name. Was claimed for $30,000 which has proven to be a good one. Has been first or second in 11 of 19 starts (6-5-0) with career earnings of $196,178. Finished second in the Jazil Stakes on 1/22/22 at Aqueduct after winning four straight. The speed figures are solid with a 104, 108, and 101 in his last three. He will be making his first start in California for his new trainer (McCarthy) after racking up five wins in seven starts for trainer Penny Pearce on the East Coast. Takes a major step up in class today. His speed figures match-up with the big boys. I really like McCarthy and Juan Hernandez, who are both underrated in my opinion. Most people named Paul will bet this horse. Use Underneath! 

 

 

#3 Warrant (4/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Flavien Prat

 

A good band back in the day. Has never finished out of the money in eight starts (3-3-2) with career earnings of $649,700. AWarrant is by Constitution, who has produced numerous graded stakes victories. Finished third in the Louisiana Stakes on 1/22/22, earning a 101 Equibase speed figure. Before that, he won the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby earning that same 101 speed rating. His speed figures are a notch below some of his rivals, but he's lightly raced as a 4-year old and eligible for improvement. Prat finished fourth with Independence Hall last year. I think this horse is better! Win Contender!

 

 

#4 Soy Tapito (20/1), trained by Doug O'Neill & ridden by Diego Herrera

 

Has two wins and two thirds from six lifetime starts ($101,480). This gelded son of Not This Time will make his Graded stakes debut after winning two in a row. A MSW win on 1/8/22 at Santa Anita, followed by an Allowance victory on 2/18/22, earning a career-best 106 speed figure. Intriguing horse and those two wins at Santa Anita were visibly impressive. Mercado Racing and Doug O'Neill have high hopes for this horse, hence the quick turnaround. Soy Tapito is bred to go long. This horse won his maiden in front-running fashion and than rallied with a sustained come-from-behind win last time out. Apprentice jockey Herrera has options. This could be his breakout performance. Longshot  Win Contender! 

 

 

#5 American Theorem (12/1), trained by George Papaprodromou & ridden by Mike Smith

 

This son by American Pharoah has finished first or second in five of eight (2-3-0) with career earnings of $169,267. Hasn't lived up to the hype. Finished 6th (last) in the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22. The speed figure was slow (86) and there was a legitimate excuse. AT got shuffled back on the first turn losing momentum to eventual winner Express Train. I would expect jockey Mike Smith to engage AT earlier out of the gate. Does he have enough class to win this type of race. Yes, but hasn't shown it yet. Until he does you can Toss!

 

 

#6 Express Train (8/5), trained by John Shirreffs & ridden by Victor Espinoza

 

I will always have a soft spot for Victor Espinoza as he was the first jockey to ride my horse, Tizamagician. The Train has finished in-the-money 13 of 16 starts (6-4-3) with career earnings of $935,800. Very impressive. He won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes on 2/5/22 earning a 106 speed figure. Before that, he won the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes and certainty loves running at Santa Anita. Improving speed figures in three straight races. ET has won four Grade 2 races and is looking for a bigger prize. The 5-year old colt by Union Rags will get plenty of action at the window. I am not sold on him in this race. The One to Beat!

 

 

#7 Kiss Today Goodbye (15/1), trained by Eric Kruljac & ridden by Kyle Frey

 

Speaking of Tizamagician, he's beat this horse several times in graded stakes action. Kiss Today Goodbye has three wins, one second, and three thirds from 17 career starts ($306,302). Not sure why the connections keep running in graded stakes. Finished 7th in Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup on 1/23/21, 6th in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap last year, 8th in the Grade 2 San Diego on 7/17/21, 2nd in the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes on 11/21/21, 7th in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes on 12/26/21, and 5th last time out in the Grade 2 San Pasqual on 2/5/22. Does that give you confidence to back this horse? Maybe he wakes up in this Grace 1 at a nice price. Even with this soft field, I would be shocked if he won. Toss!

 

 

#8 Stilleto Boy (5/2), trained by Ed Moger Jr. & ridden by John Velazquez

 

Has finished in-the-money 10 of 13 (2-3-5) career starts, earning $833,175. The 4-year old Chestnut gelding by Shackleford has been running in Grade 1 races only. Finished 3rd in the Pegasus World Cup to Life is Good and Knicks Go, 3rd in Grade 1 Run Happy Malibu Stakes losing to Flightline, 5th in the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Classic, and 2nd in the Grade 1 Awesome Again losing to Medina Spirit (RIP) who was probably cheating. I can't prove that though. Positive jockey change to Velazquez, who does well on horses with a pressing/sustained running style. Owns the highest Equibase speed figure (117) of the bunch which occurred in his last race. You can make the argument that Stilleto Boy is getting class relief after facing those juggernauts in the Pegasus World Cup. Win Contender and my Top Choice!

 

 

Jeff's Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Selections

 

Play #8 Stilleto Boy (5/2) to win, place, and show (I would expect we get at least 7/2)

 

#3 Warrent (4/1) (Place)

 

#4 Soy Tapito (20/1) (Show)

 

#6 Express Train (8/5) (Fourth)

 

$1.00 Trifecta Box ($24)

 

Using the four horses above.

 

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 2 Remsen Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-02-24

Jeff's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Preview (Race 11)

 

 

Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Arkansas

 

 

Saturday, February 26th, 2022 (6:22 pm et)

 

 

 

 

#1 Kavod (12/1), trained by Chris Hartman & ridden by Francisco Arrieta 

 

 

Has finished first or second (11-3-1-0) in  four of 11 career starts, earning $293,000. Was a distant fourth (beaten 5 1/2 lengths) in the Southwest Stakes last month. The class rating and speed figures don't jump off the page. The inside post is not ideal either, although Kavod won from post #1 in a  minor stakes sprint race at Oaklawn Park last December. At the end of the day, this distance seems too long for this horse. Toss!

 

 

 

#2 Newgrange (9/5), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by John Velazquez

 

 

A lock to be post time chalk. Has done nothing wrong. Three races, three wins, with earnings of $552,000. Won the Southwest Stakes here at Oaklawn by 1 1/4 lengths over Barber Road. Improving speed figures (Equibase) in three straight. From an 89 maiden score to a 98 last time out. Fastest horse in field with a 93 Equibase figure. Newgrange wants to go long. This trainer/jockey combo win 51% together for ROI of +50%. Won't be eligible for Kentucky Derby Points, but is defiantly The One to Beat and MY TOP CHOICE!

 

 

 

#3 Cairama (15/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Geovanni Franco

 

 

Has finished in the money two out of four (4-1-0-1) with career earnings of $71,125. This would be a huge shocker and seems in over his head. Slow early pace, slow middle pace, slow late pace. Has never raced at Oaklawn Park. Toss!

 

 

 

#4 Un Ojo (12/1), trained by Ricky Courville & ridden by Ramon Vazquez

 

 

Has finished first or second (5-1-2-0) in three of five starts with career earnings of $176,321. Was a distant second in a stakes race at Aqueduct earlier this month. The speed figure came back slow (74). Un Ojo ranks 11/11 in Class and 11/11 in speed and now steps up in class. Toss!

 

 

 

#5 Texas Red Hot (12/1), trained by Randy Morse & ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr.

 

 

This Colt by Texas Red has finished first or second (5-2-1-0) in three of five starts with career earnings of $133,670. Finished 10th (14 1/2 lengths behind Smile Happy) in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Gold Cup. Has a bullet work (1/53) going 5f in 1.00.2 on Feb. 19th at OP. I just don't see this horse being anywhere close based on his forum, class, and speed figures. This is another horse you can completely Toss!

 

 

 

#6 Stellar Tap (10/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Cristian Torres

 

 

This Tapit bred Colt has finished in-the-money two of four starts with career earnings of $71,292. Has not won since breaking his maiden at Saratoga last August. Finished third in his most recent start, an allowance race at Fair Grounds last month. I respect the trainer and maybe he knows something. Stellar Tap does have improving speed figures in his past three races and is bred to go long. Has never raced at Oaklawn Park. Running off Lasix is a bit of a concern. Use underneath!

 

 

 

#7 Ben Diesel (6/1), trained by Dallas Stewart & ridden by Jon Court  

 

 

Has finished in the money (4-1-0-1) two of four starts with career earnings of $164,110. Finished third (beaten 2 3/4 lengths) behind winner Newgrange in the Southwest Stakes. Has enough early speed to gain position into the first turn. Uneven work tap is a concern though. I would not bet this horse to win at anything less than 20/1. Toss!

 

 

 

#8 Chasing Time (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione

 

 

Not This Time is proving to be a very good sire. His son (Epicenter) won the Remsen Stakes last week. Chasing Time has finished first or second (5-2-2-0) in four of five starts with career earnings of $179,460. Two starts at Oaklawn Park have produced a win and second. I like this horse, but might get bet down unjustly due to the Myracehorse ownership group. I do not own any shares of Chasing Time. This is a major step up in class and will need to gain 8-10 points from his last speed figure. Is more than capable of doing just that. Extra boost if the track comes up wet. Win Contender!

 

 

 

#9 Barber Road (9/2), trained by Alexander Ortiz & ridden by Reylu Gutierez

 

 

Has finished first or second in (6-2-3-0) in five of six career starts with earnings of $300,720. Strong contender after finishing second to Newgrange (1 1/4 lengths) in the Southwest Stakes. Ranks 10/11 in class rating. Very tough to win this type of race. Fast works and likes Oaklawn are two positives. Getting his regular jockey back could help, although Barber Road has finished second in three straight races. The class and speed figures don't excite me, but this horse could improve especially on a wet track. Use Underneath!

 

 

 

#10 Ethereal Road (12/1), trained by D. Wayne Lukas & ridden by Luis Contreras

 

 

Has one win and one third in four career starts, earning $63,545. This Colt by Quality Road enters off a MSW win at Oaklawn Park last month, earning a career best 88 Equibase speed figure. Has never raced from post #10 or higher. Benefited from a ground-saving trip from post #2 last time out. This is a major step up in class and will run off Lasix for the first time. Toss!  

 

 

 

#11 Dash Attack (8/1), trained by Kenneth McPeek & ridden by David Cohen

 

 

The local horse might attract some attention. Has two wins and one fifth place finish in three career starts ($227,940). That clunker was the Southwest Stakes, finishing a distance fifth by 7 3/4 lengths. No horse has been working better and would certainly benefit if the track comes up wet. Respect the trainer that wins 22% in stakes races. Has never run from an outside post, but does own the highest class rating (95) and second-highest speed figure (90). Use Underneath! 

 

 

 

Jeff's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Selection

 

 

Play #2 Newgrange (9/5) to win & place!

 

 

#8 Not This Time (8/1) (Place)  

 

 

#6 Stellar Tap (10/1) Show

 

 

#11 Dash Attack (8/1) (fourth)

 

 

 

Twitter: @jhsportsline



Jeff's Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Preview

Author: Jeff Hochman
Published: 2022-02-16

Risen Star Stakes (Grade 2)  Fair Grounds--- Race 13

 

 

 

 

 

#1 Pappacap (4/1), trained by Mark Casse & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione

 

 

This 3-year old Colt by Gun Runner has finished in-the-money five of six (6-2-2-1) tries, earning $596,000. Earned a career best Equibase speed figure of 96 when finishing 3rd in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds last month. The local works have been off the charts spectacular. Improving speed figures in four straight races. Always nice to see. Trainer Mark Casse wins 15% in the second race after a 2-6 month layoff. I love the positive jockey switch from Bravo to Gaffalione. Has tactical speed where the rail post won't matter much. Win Contender!

 

 

 

#2 Russian Tank (50/1), trained by Gennadi Dorochenko & ridden by Jose Vega

 

This horse has no chance and could get scratched. Won a maiden special weight race on turf last November. Has been first or second in two of eight career starts (8-1-1-0) with earnings of $39,160. Has never raced at today's distance on a dirt track. Ranks 10/10 in early pace, 10/10 in middle pace, 10/10 in late pace. Declining speed figures in three straight races. Trainer wins 12% sprint to route. Toss!

 

#3 Trafalgar (10/1), trained by Albert Stall & ridden by Colby Hernandez

 

Finished fourth by 4 1/2 lengths in the Lecomte Stakes at FG last month. In four career starts, Trafalgar has two wins and one second with earnings of $125,060. Blinkers go on today. Albert Stall wins 50% with first time blinkers. Fast works in the morning. I don't believe this horse has enough speed and class to win this type of race. Toss!

 

 

 

 

 

#4 Tawny Port (12/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux

 

 

Has done nothing wrong, winning both career starts (synthetic surface) for $75,600. This is a major step up in class for the son of Pioneerof the Nile. Earned a career best 90 Equibase speed figure and would need to improve another 10 points to win this race. The connections suggest it could happen. Trainer Brad Cox wins 29% off 1-2 month layoff and 30% going 1 1/8 mile of the dirt. Asking a lot to handle this talented field in his initial try on dirt. Will be a nice price. Long Shot!

 

 

 

 

#5 Epicenter (4/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Joel Rosario)

 

 

Has finished first or second in three of four career starts (4-2-1-0) with earnings of $170,639. Finished 2nd by a head in the Grade 2 Lecomte Stakes last month. Two starts at Fair Grounds produced a win and second. Should be on or near the lead with a clean start. Owns the fastest early pace (102.9) speed figure in the field. Owns the second fastest middle pace (91.6). The works have jumped off the page in the morning. Gate to wire? Win Contender!

 

 

 

 

#6 Pioneer of Medina (10/1), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by Luis Saez

 

 

Has won two straight and takes a major step up in class today. Has never been out of the money if four career starts (4-2-1-1) with earnings of $65,350. These connections must be respected. This trainer/jockey combo wins 29% together from a massive sample size. Running off lasix is a major concern though. Tough to back with slower speed figures than main rivals. Use Underneath!

 

 

 

 

 

#7 Zandon (9/2), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Jose Ortiz

 

 

Chad Brown opted for this spot over Gulfstream's Holy Bull Stakes. Has one win and one second in two starts with career earnings of $99,500. Lost by a nose to Mo Donegal, as the betting favorite in the Grade 2 Remsen. This 3-year old Colt by Upstart has produced identical Equibase speed figures of 93. Mo Donegal came back to finish 3rd in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 5th. I prefer others. Use Underneath!

 

 

 

 

 

#8 Smile Happy (7/2), trained by Keeneth McPeek & ridden by Corey Lanerie

 

 

Has two wins from two career starts earning $248,810 so far. His sire is Run Happy. Have you heard of him? Kidding of course. Owns the fastest Equibase speed figure (98) in the field. Owns the fastest late pace speed figure (111.5) and should be rolling late with a clean trip. The two horses Smile Happy defeated in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club stakes (Classic Causeway & White Abarrio) both came back to win a stakes race. The ultimate goal is the Kentucky Derby, so taking a stand against him in this spot seems like a worthwhile risk, as he may not be cranked up to 100% this early. The One to Beat!

 

 

 

 

#9 Bodock (10/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Marcelino Pedroza Jr.

 

 

Two wins from two starts for career earnings of $52,00. The last victory was here at FG on an off track, earning a career-best 87 speed figure. From a class and speed rating, this horse looks to be up against it. There are faster, proven, and more classier horses in this field. Ranks 10/10 in Class and 9/10 in speed rating. Brad Cox wins 34% sprint to route. Never raced beyond 6 furlongs. Toss!

 

 

 

 

 

#10 Slow Down Andy (9/2), trained by Doug O'Neill & ridden by Mario Gutierrez

 

 

Has never finished out of the money in three career starts (3-2-1-0), with earnings of $249,850. Won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, earning a career-best 95 Equibase speed figure back in December. This is another step up in class for the 3-year old son by Nyquist. The level of competition has been sub-par to say the least. Doug O'Neill is a great trainer, but it's hard to ignore his 7% win percentage in all stakes races. The outside post and his sustained running style are of major concern. Toss!

 

 

 

Jeff's Grade 2 Risen Star Selection (5:58 pm ET)

 

 

Play #5 Epicenter (4/1) Across-the-Board!

 

 

 

 

#7 Zadon (9/2) (Place)

 

 

#1 Paapacap (4/1) (Show)

 

 

#8 Smile Happy (7/2) (Fourth)

 

 

 

 

 

Twitter:@jhsportsline