FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
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TODAY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
| James Patrick Sports | 8:20 PM Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles NFL 09/04 |
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| Pick: Dallas Cowboys 7 Cowboys vs. Eagles 8:20 pm. est. Dallas Cowboys Owner, president, general manager Jerry Jones turns (83) and his new first-time NFL head coach Brian Schottenheimer turns (52). Jones simply promoted a career assistant in Schottenheimer from OC after the dismissal of Mike McCarthy. The rest of the coaching staff has been revamped, as Klayton Adams, most recently the offensive line coach for Arizona, and Matt Eberflus, who was fired as the Bears head coach, hold the two coordinator positions. Eberflus was a highly-regarded DC with the Colts for four seasons after getting hired away from his position as the Cowboys linebackers coach for seven seasons. The Eberflus defenses with the Colts and also the Bears were big on stopping the run and forcing takeaways. Inheriting a defense that was third in sacks with (52) is a good start. For “The Boys” offense to be successful QB Dak Prescott has to stay healthy. When Prescott played all (17) games during the 2023 season, he led the league in completions and passing touchdowns en route to a runner-up finish for the MVP award. That is one of just two full seasons for Prescott over the last five campaigns. Dallas has a wealth of depth as CeeDee Lamb’s (101) catches dramatically outpaced everybody else. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders should form something of a tandem and the Cowboys traded for George Pickens to put with Lamb, Jalen Tolbert, and TE Jake Ferguson. Grab the generous points with Dallas here. Your complimentary selection in Thursday Night NFL action is #451. Take Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia. Big Game James Patrick has Friday Night National Football League action from the Touchdown Club and be there for the opening kick-off at 8:05 p.m. est. and enjoy all the hard - hitting action of the National Football League while you are cashing in on your investments with this Complimentary Winner. The Kansas City Chiefs travel to the “Tinsel Town” for a crack at the Los Angeles Charges in NFL action. | |
| John Ryan | 1:00 PM New York Giants vs Washington Commanders NFL 09/07 |
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| Pick: New York Giants 6 Giants vs Commanders 5-Unit bet on the Giants priced as 6.5-point dogs. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 3.5 units on the Giants preflop (prior to the kickoff) and then look to add 1.5 units if the Commanders score first or they retake the lead during the first half of action. Betting in the second half has an increasing limitation of time remaining in order for that bet to win. You essentially need to be correct nearly immediately when making any 2nd half bet so be cautious whenever thinking of that strategy this season. In each of the past four Circa Survivors and any survivor contest the most popular team choices to win in Week 1 have lost and by week 4 about 88% of the entries have been eliminated. This game has the potential to be the largest selected choice on the board for any survivor contest. The betting sentiment is largely positive for the Commanders and highly negative for the Giants based on their recent seasons. The fact that this game is only 6.5 points had me scratching my head from the opening. Of the tickets bet on this game, 55% of them are on the Commanders and accounts for a whopping 61% of the handle and the line has not moved from the opening price. In fact, there are some books that have moved their lines to 6 points. The following betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 25-30 SU record and a 38-14-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets since 2014. The required criteria are: Bet on road dogs priced between 3 and 6.5 points. The game occurs in the first three weeks of the regular season. That team struggled on defense allowing 5.7 or more yards per play in their previous season. Now, sit down and read this fact. If the game has a total of more than 45 points, this system has gone an amazing 14-18 SU and 23-7-2 ATS good for a highly profitable 77% winning bets since 2014. P-Value Calculation for the NFL Betting System The P-Value measures the probability of observing the system's winning record (or better) under the null hypothesis that it's no better than random chance. For ATS betting, we test against two nulls: p=0.5 (fair coin, pure chance). p=0.5238 (approximate breakeven point accounting for vig/juice in sportsbooks). We use a one-tailed binomial test (alternative='greater'), assuming independent bets (a common but debated assumption in sports betting due to potential correlations). Pushes (2) are excluded, focusing on decisions (wins + losses). Data: Overall, 39 wins / 53 trials (73.58%); Divisional 12 wins / 15 trials (80%). Results Metric Wins/Trials Win % P-Value vs. 0.5 P-Value vs. 0.5238 Overall ATS (since 2014) 39/53 73.58% 0.000401 (highly significant) 0.001304 (highly significant) Divisional ATS (since 2014) 12/15 80% 0.017578 (significant) 0.027176 (significant) Interpretation: Both are statistically significant (P < 0.05), meaning the results are unlikely due to luck alone—even against the tougher breakeven threshold. The overall system's low P-Value strongly rejects the null, supporting its profitability claims (e.g., consistent wins over 11 seasons, 8 bets lined up for 2025 Weeks 1-3). | |
| BEST NFL HANDICAPPERS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Top Handicappers | Profit | WCR |
| Damian Sosh | $8180.00 | 51.1 |
| C-Stars Sports | $6150.00 | 49.2 |
| Mike Lundin | $5830.00 | 58.3 |
| Kevin Thomas | $5455.00 | 35.0 |
| Dionne D'Amico | $3984.00 | 62.3 |
| Joe D'Amico | $3869.00 | 30.2 |
| John Ryan | $2950.00 | 25.2 |
| TOP NFL CAPPERS PAST 7 DAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Top Handicappers | Profit | WCR |
| TOP NFL CAPPERS PAST 30 DAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Top Handicappers | Profit | WCR |
| Damian Sosh | $7180.00 | 47.9 |
| C-Stars Sports | $6150.00 | 49.2 |
| Mike Lundin | $4830.00 | 53.7 |
| John Ryan | $4455.00 | 43.3 |
| Kevin Thomas | $4455.00 | 30.5 |
| Dionne D'Amico | $3984.00 | 62.3 |
| Joe D'Amico | $3869.00 | 30.2 |
| TOP NFL CAPPERS PAST 60 DAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Top Handicappers | Profit | WCR |
| Damian Sosh | $8180.00 | 51.1 |
| C-Stars Sports | $6150.00 | 49.2 |
| Mike Lundin | $5830.00 | 58.3 |
| Kevin Thomas | $5455.00 | 35.0 |
| John Ryan | $4455.00 | 43.3 |
| Dionne D'Amico | $3984.00 | 62.3 |
| Joe D'Amico | $3869.00 | 30.2 |
| TOP NFL CAPPERS PAST 90 DAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Top Handicappers | Profit | WCR |
| Damian Sosh | $8180.00 | 51.1 |
| C-Stars Sports | $6150.00 | 49.2 |
| Mike Lundin | $5830.00 | 58.3 |
| Kevin Thomas | $5455.00 | 35.0 |
| John Ryan | $4455.00 | 43.3 |
| Dionne D'Amico | $3984.00 | 62.3 |
| Joe D'Amico | $3869.00 | 30.2 |
