Author: Jeff's Hochman
Published: 2025-02-20
Grade 2 Rebel Stakes | Oaklawn Park | Race 11 | Feb. 23
Top Win Contenders
#3 Sandman (4/1), trained by Mark Casse & ridden by Cristian Torres
Tapit sires this 3-year-old colt and has an impressive record of 6 races with two wins, 1-second place, and one-third place, earning a total of $344,595. Last month, he finished a close second by just one length to the winner, Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Sandman achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 101 and has improved his figures over the last four races. He won in an Allowance race as the 5/2 favorite two races back, racing 1 mile at Oaklawn. This upcoming race will be his second start during his 3-year-old campaign, following five races as a 2-year-old. He appears ready, featuring a series of impressive workouts over this course. Don't expect odds of 4/1; they are likely closer to 2/1, so I will look for alternatives.
#5 Madaket Road (9/2), trained by Bob Baffert & ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.
This lightly raced 3-year-old colt by Quality Road has three career starts, with one win, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish, earning $80,000. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita on opening day this past December as the 4/5 favorite. However, in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on February 1st, he finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Citizen Bull. Although he appears to be a win contender, especially considering the strength of his connections, this will be his second race in just 22 days. Although I have some doubts, I wouldn’t be surprised if he performs well. Since 2010, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has achieved an impressive record in the Rebel: eight wins, four second-place finishes, and one-third from 16 starters. This results in a 50% win rate and an 81% in-the-money rate.
#10 Bullard (5/1), trained by Michael McCarthy & ridden by Umberto Rispoli
This 3-year-old colt by Gun Runner has achieved two wins and one third-place finish in three starts, earning $129,000. Bullard secured his victory in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes two races ago, earning a career-best Equibase speed figure of 105 at Del Mar last November. In his only race this year, Bullard finished third, six lengths behind the winner, Barnes, and the second-place finisher, Madaket Road, in the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. The 5/1 morning line shows considerable respect from the track handicapper for a horse that has never raced at Oaklawn or competed in distances longer than 7 furlongs. However, Bullard is a respected purchase at $675,000 from the Keeneland September 2023 yearling sale. Trainer McCarthy and jockey Rispoli have a winning rate of 28%, finishing in the money 59% of the time when they team up.
#11 Speed King (6/1), trained by Ron Moquett & ridden by Rafael Bejarano
Speed King has demonstrated significant potential, securing two victories and one-second place from three races, accumulating $669,000, the second-highest earnings in the field. He won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park at odds of 14/1 on January 25th. Two starts back, he broke his maiden at odds of nearly 23/1 at Churchill Downs. Speed King's speed figures have steadily improved, increasing from 93 to 103 in his first three races. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and also 1-for-1 at this distance. He will likely attract significant betting interest by post-time, and I don't expect his odds to be any higher than 9/2. His most recent workout is very impressive, where he completed 4 furlongs in 48 seconds, ranking fourth-best out of 117 horses.
Live Long Shots
#1 Coal Battle (10/1), trained by Lonnie Briley & ridden by Juan Vargas
This three-year-old colt by Coal Front has achieved four victories in six career starts, earning $453,875. He has won three consecutive races, all listed stakes events, by a combined margin of seven lengths. Notably, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes, completing the distance of 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn on January 4th. Coal Battle needs to improve his speed figures, as his career best of 96 from two starts ago will not be sufficient to win this race. He is 1-for-1 at Oaklawn and 1-for-1 at this distance and beat Speed King in the Remington Springboard Mile last December. If Speed King is a good bet at 6/1, consider Coal Battle at 10/1. This horse boasts an impressive record, having never lost a race on dirt. Both of his losses occurred on turf. While his training performances might not be particularly impressive, it's important to remember that some horses do not enjoy morning workouts.
#2 Admiral Dennis (12/1), trained by Brad Cox & ridden by Florent Geroux
Admiral Dennis has two wins and one third-place finish in four career starts, earning $119,800. He won an allowance race at Fairgrounds on January 20th, going 1 1/16 miles, as the odds-on favorite. He has been the favorite at post-time in all four races. Two starts back, he stumbled at the start but made up good ground to finish fourth, 16 ½ lengths behind the winner, Built in the Gun Runner Stakes (listed). You must respect trainer Brad Cox, who wins 28% of the time and finishes in the money 62% of the time in all stakes races. He wins 30% and finishes in the money 62% in all dirt races at today's distance.
#9 Smokin Wicked (8/1), trained by Dallas Stewart & ridden by Tyler Gaffalione
This 3-year-old colt, by Bobby’s Wicked One, was purchased for just $38,000—what a bargain! In 2024, he earned $307,542 with four wins, one second-place finish, and one third-place finish. This race will mark his first start in 2025, which may be a disadvantage when predicting the winner. Ten of the last 12 winners prepped with a race in January or February. Horses making their first start of the year in the Rebel have won only 2 out of 14 times during the same period. However, Smokin Wicked has won three consecutive races, including the Louisiana Futurity Stakes (listed) last December, where he achieved a career-best Equibase speed figure of 112, the highest in the field. His recent workout performances have been impressive, and he boasts the fastest late-pace speed figure of 112 among the contenders. The only concern is whether he can handle this distance.
#13 Tiztastic (8/1), trained by Steve Asmussen & ridden by Jose Ortiz
This 3-year-old colt, by Tiz the Law, has earned a check in five consecutive races after finishing fifth in his first career start last July at Saratoga. He encountered some traffic issues but finished third, 2 ½ lengths behind Speed King, in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes last month. With career earnings of $909,800, he holds the highest total in the field. Tiztastic has won two races, both on turf, raising concerns about his ability on other surfaces. He was purchased for $335,000 at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale for an ownership group that has enjoyed considerable success. You must respect the connections; trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Irad Ortiz have a combined winning percentage of 35% and finish in the money 60% of the time when they unite.
Selections
#10 Bullard (5/1) Win & Place
#1 Coal Battle (10/1) Place & Show
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